Coronavirus

[deonb]

I get that you're concerned about the issues with widespread HCQ use, but you're not even willing to acknowledge that Papafox's point is about the risk-reward tradeoff.

Right now, it seems that the risk of dying from covid for the over 60 crowd (from Italy's data) is close to 10%.

A risk-reward trade-off would be absolutely fine. If it’s 100% effective it can be prescribed under your set of numbers even if HCQ outright kills 9% of people who take it. (For example).

Currently it’s a risk-hope tradeoff though. That now becomes a lot trickier.

We know it’s not 100% effective cause we would have discovered that by now. Is it 20% effective? 10%? In the end - is it more effective than the risks associated with HCQ? There doesn’t seem to be anybody who can answer this. Yet.

 

[EVNow]

FT is doing a slightly better curve now. Fatalities averaged over 7 days.

Italy, Spain & France have bent the curve. US & UK still keep going straight up.

 

[linux-works]

Would it be OK for me to buy a cat for my wife?
I'll let you know in two weeks if it works.

let us know.

or, we'll have to do a cat scan ourselves. and you wouldn't want that, I'm pretty sure.

 

[linux-works]

Please, don't go out and start exterminating cats.

correct.

no one's going OUT.

some things can be done from inside...

 

[Cosmacelf]

The captain of the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier was relieved of duty today. This was the ship that has a C19 outbreak that is at Guam.

I'm probably going to get crucified for saying this, but after I read his letter, I'm not surprised. I am quite sure he had a conversation with his superior at least a couple of times about this, did he not? Putting information like what he did into a letter was reckless. It was an explosive letter, and was very likely going to find its way to the press. Whether he directly took it there or not, writing it was reckless. So he's either stupid for not realizing it was going to be splashed over the news, or, more likely, he wanted it splashed over the news to force his superior's hand. That's insubordination.

No military can afford a freaking warship Captain, and not just any warship, an aircraft carrier!, to be this insubordinate or stupid, take your pick. It doesn't matter if his crew was being decimated (which they were not), you follow your chain of command. Period, full stop. End of story. Doesn't matter if it is "peacetime" (there is no such thing).

In the end, he probably knew he was going to get fired for this, but he did it anyways to protect his men. So, both he and the military brass did what they had to do...

Excuse me while I put on my flamesuit now.

 

[renim]

A risk-reward trade-off would be absolutely fine.... In the end - is it more effective than the risks associated with HCQ? There doesn’t seem to be anybody who can answer this. Yet.

This is a long studied drug in very large population sets, there is ample knowledge in how to prescibe it safely, and how not to prescribe it.

Are there any other drug with as as many man years of users? this has been used in malarial countries for decades (and for quinine - centuries)

 

[Norbert]

Let me ask you then, why was the French study discontinued days into the controlled study and the government shortly thereafter approved the drug's use for COVID19?

I can't follow this argument. The opposite question seems much better: why would you stop the study of a treatment if it is successful?

In this case the approval doesn't say much, it could be more political than medical, or bowing to the pressure from people like you, since it is a well-known treatment for other uses.

 

[Norbert]

Iceland jumped from 2 deaths to 4.

 

[alloverx]

Vaccine test underway for two potential COVID-19 vaccines in Australia. And yes ferrets will be used initially before humans.

 

[FoverM]

Here are the top 20 states in terms of Deaths Per Million through 04/02:

I truncated WA early since it ran off the chart to the right. Data from covidtracking.com.

 

[Cosmacelf]

And as I've said previously, my colleagues at Cornel in NYC do NOT regard Dr. Zelenko as . . . well respected and there is a big question of if he is being truthful. Notice how he just posted he has treated 669 patients with this combination? No publishing of his data (and 669 is a CRAP ton of patients to prescribe this to in just 2 short weeks, if you were doing proper follow up). Is he dolling it out like candy? Did he have a positive SARS-CoV-2 test on each one first? If he did, he's certainly getting testing results back MUCH faster than the approximate week turn-around time for the rest of NYC that my colleagues are reporting. This dataset . . . isn't even a dataset. It's a guy posting on a blog that he did something and not providing any proof for peer review. Sounds like click bait to me, pure and simple. He should share the data with everyone, like ANY peer review process requires, or retract his statements (and likely lose his medical license).

I just did a pubmed search on the guy - he's never published any peer reviewed journal articles that I could find.

You keep ascribing hope in place of facts. Plain and simple.

This NY Times article provides more color to Dr. Zelenko. He has more than one clinic and that 669 number may both be exaggerated, and include people who have little or no symptoms that get treated prophylacticly (my guess). Here is the relevant part of the NY Times article:

While dealing with his newfound fame, Dr. Zelenko, who has been practicing telemedicine from his home office, is working to keep his coronavirus patients alive. He said his team had seen about 900 patients with possible coronavirus symptoms, treating about 350 with his regimen. None had died as of Thursday, he said, though six were hospitalized and two were on ventilators.

So, to your point, he can't be used as a data source to prove/disprove anything. It would be nice if he provided data/wrote a paper, did anything like that, but it doesn't look like he's going to.

Touting Virus Cure, ‘Simple Country Doctor’ Becomes a Right-Wing Star

 

[Papafox]

I can't follow this argument. The opposite question seems much better: why would you stop the study of a treatment if it is successful?

In this case the approval doesn't say much, it could be more political than medical, or bowing to the pressure from people like you, since it is a well-known treatment for other uses.

You have to look at the context of the study being discontinued. France gave approval for the drug's use in Covid-19 treatment shortly after the study was discontinued. A country doesn't do that if the big study just flopped. If the study was indicating the drug was ineffective, you would want to continue the study to prove so and thus yield important information from the study.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm gonna look back and regret not creating a plasma black market for treating the .001%

Dear lord, you could charge literally anything you like and wouldn't be hard to get up and running.

$200k a pint please.

A black market in dodgy unknown sourced blood? Yeah, count me out of that one

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here are the top 20 states in terms of Deaths Per Million through 04/02:
View attachment 528759
I truncated WA early since it ran off the chart to the right. Data from covidtracking.com.

Can you do the same thing, but include CA?

 

[Norbert]

So I've been playing around by plugging this onset-to-death model into the South Korean data from Worldometer.
I calculated the most probable infection time given the death data and it produced new infections occurring over a much longer period of time than the new case data suggests.
I calculated the expected shape of the deaths over time using the new case data and it produced a shape much like the shape of the onset-death model (not surprising since most of the new cases in South Korea were over a short period of time, like an impulse). Not the shape we see which is flat, dips a little bit in the middle, and is slightly higher nearly a month after the peak new cases.
I think the most likely answer is that the onset-to-death model Is wrong. It must be much broader and flatter.

I wonder what the IHME model is using for their onset-to-death model?

Did you produce graphs or just numbers?

Obviously SK has a visible long tail.

I did a quick look at China's numbers since March 1. There are 1563 new cases.
China's non-adjusted CFR in total is 4.1%, and probably won't change much anymore.

If you assume a lag of 19 days since March 1 (I am not sure if that's the number you would use in the Imperial case), you get:
73 deaths resulting in a CFR of 4.6%. This is the adjusted CFR of the tail starting March 1.

With a lag of 14 days, you get:
119 deaths resulting in an CFR of 7.6%.

So 19 days is a better match at the tail. Of course, the testing levels may have changed.

So it seems in the case of China there is a tail as well, even if perhaps not as significant as SK's.

 

[dhanson865]

disclaimer: CFR is unreliable during an outbreak

but man they sure do have a high deaths to cases ratio in France and UK that is heavily spiked recently. France might dip back down due to the way past cases were all dumped on Apr 2, 2020 but UK doesn't have that excuse. Italy and Spain look rough in both ratio and absolute numbers but seem to be in the peak already.

So will the US deaths spike to meet numbers like the 4 countries bolded with 8+% deaths per confirmed cases or will we prevent that?

Italy 12.07%
Spain 9.23%
USA 2.48%
France 9.11%
UK 8.66%

 

[EVNow]

WA has now extended stay at home to May 04th.

It looks like the new essential business definition excludes the way Tesla is selling cars (with small exceptions).

https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/d...0.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

SALES Limited sales and leasing activities at licensed new and used car and truck dealerships are deemed essential only if those activities:
• close a pending transaction that began before Governor Inslee’s Proclamation 20-25 was issued; or
• replace a totaled vehicle, replace a damaged vehicle that is impractical to repair, extend a lease that expires, or provide transportation to essential workers, as identified in the “Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers” list, Appendix to Proclamation 20-25, if the essential worker has no other means of transportation.​

 

[AZRI11]

Down under is going to give it a try Coronavirus: hydroxychloroquine supplied in Australia to treat COVID-19

 

[SteveG3]

This NY Times article provides more color to Dr. Zelenko. He has more than one clinic and that 669 number may both be exaggerated, and include people who have little or no symptoms that get treated prophylacticly (my guess). Here is the relevant part of the NY Times article:



So, to your point, he can't be used as a data source to prove/disprove anything. It would be nice if he provided data/wrote a paper, did anything like that, but it doesn't look like he's going to.

Touting Virus Cure, ‘Simple Country Doctor’ Becomes a Right-Wing Star

In the past 2-3 days I saw I believe a video, possibly an article, where Zelenko explained that the 669 number was the total amount of people he had a consultation with. The overwhelming majority, all but 200, were just sent home to rest. 200 have been put on his regimen. Early on he was having patients tested for COV19, and he says that a high percentage (over 50% IIRC), tested positive. He subsequently stopped the testing process, saying that the 2-3 days to get results are in his view likely a very costly delay in getting at risk patients on the treatment. So, according to his assertions, this does not sound like he’s claiming a plainly implausible amount of access (a number under 200, rather than 600+ patients over 7-10 days) to testing.


Just relaying what Dr. Zelenko has stated, not making any claims re his reliability above. I do personally sense it is more likely than not he is being honest re his basic claims based on my imperfect ability to read people based on their tone and how they present information, and, their claimed content itself.

 

[MXLRplus]

I'm probably going to get crucified for saying this, but after I read his letter, I'm not surprised. I am quite sure he had a conversation with his superior at least a couple of times about this, did he not? Putting information like what he did into a letter was reckless. It was an explosive letter, and was very likely going to find its way to the press. Whether he directly took it there or not, writing it was reckless. So he's either stupid for not realizing it was going to be splashed over the news, or, more likely, he wanted it splashed over the news to force his superior's hand. That's insubordination.

No military can afford a freaking warship Captain, and not just any warship, an aircraft carrier!, to be this insubordinate or stupid, take your pick. It doesn't matter if his crew was being decimated (which they were not), you follow your chain of command. Period, full stop. End of story. Doesn't matter if it is "peacetime" (there is no such thing).

In the end, he probably knew he was going to get fired for this, but he did it anyways to protect his men. So, both he and the military brass did what they had to do...

Excuse me while I put on my flamesuit now.

While your opinion might not be popular in some circles, you are 100% correct. I knew he was getting canned the minute it hit the press, and I presume he knew it as well. This isn't the first time a warship has had a contagion problem that was serious. That is as old as navies. It is the first time the captain of a carrier has told his adversaries his ship cannot fight. He can't command with that attitude. He might still be a valuable naval aviator, but his career as an CO is over.

Here's the SECNAV's letter about the unfortunate incident:

Statement From SECNAV on Relief of CO Aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)