Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Coronavirus

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
You have to look at the context of the study being discontinued. France gave approval for the drug's use in Covid-19 treatment shortly after the study was discontinued. A country doesn't do that if the big study just flopped. If the study was indicating the drug was ineffective, you would want to continue the study to prove so and thus yield important information from the study.

You would want to prove it either way, and if it works, even more so. The only reason to stop, that I can imagine, is if it is doing so so la la, and you prefer having a placebo over nothing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doggydogworld
I mentioned earlier about how Peter Tsai, material scientist who created the statically charged N95 masks, was testing Non-woven blue shop towels for DIY face masks and would have result In a few days. Well tonight I see this Business Insider article about a group using the same thing. They say they have been experimenting with different materials and explain what they have done. They plan to give out their pattern in a few days. Also looking for GoFundMe donations to cover costs of the people sewing the masks they are making that they give away for free.

Using blue shop towels in homemade face masks can filter particles 2x to 3x better than cotton, three clothing designers discover after testing dozens of fabrics

I told my husband this will be the next run after toilet paper and hair dye.
 
Can you do the same thing, but include CA?
It's automated for just the top 20 ... but when I look at the base data, CA is following WA (the bottom blue line). The caveat is that CA has a *huge* backlog of tests according to covidtracking.com.

CA has a whopping 59,500 tests in the "pending" category! More than an order of magnitude more than any other state. If their pending results break like the existing results (9191/33000 or 27% positive), that would add 16,571 positives. Right now they're sitting at 203/9191 deaths/positive, so there's the potential to add ~360 deaths to the total. They only have 203 deaths so far, so their 5.14 DPM would rise to over 10 DPM.
 
While your opinion might not be popular in some circles, you are 100% correct. I knew he was getting canned the minute it hit the press, and I presume he knew it as well. This isn't the first time a warship has had a contagion problem that was serious. That is as old as navies. It is the first time the captain of a carrier has told his adversaries his ship cannot fight. He can't command with that attitude. He might still be a valuable naval aviator, but his career as an CO is over.

Here's the SECNAV's letter about the unfortunate incident:

Statement From SECNAV on Relief of CO Aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)

i agree with you. He knew what the outcome would be but clearly felt getting his crew help from this CV as soon as possible was worth more to him than his commission. I get the navy’s position but also feel like hats off to him. I do have to wonder if Guam has sufficient equipment to handle what we can assume will be hospitalization/ventilations in the week/s ahead. A crew of 4K is a scary number and the mates on the carrier were in closer contact than passengers on a cruise ship would be. Sad it came down to this.
 
i agree with you. He knew what the outcome would be but clearly felt getting his crew help from this CV as soon as possible was worth more to him than his commission. I get the navy’s position but also feel like hats off to him. I do have to wonder if Guam has sufficient equipment to handle what we can assume will be hospitalization/ventilations in the week/s ahead. A crew of 4K is a scary number and the mates on the carrier were in closer contact than passengers on a cruise ship would be. Sad it came down to this.

It's a long read, but if you make it to the end of the SECNAV's letter, you realize how truly bad he screwed the pooch. He's not being court martialled, he just can't command a warship anymore.
 
Ugghhh... Another round of the Mark Cuban show. Now he has Forbes and some others saying 3M is crisis profiteering on N95 masks again. 3M is only selling to medical supply companies, at their existing price structure. Mark Cuban would have quadrupled the price if he ran 3M.
Now people are calling out for the US to ban exports of medical supplies. Not very wise. We only make <5% of the masks, it's crazy to start a global export battle.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sean Wagner
It's automated for just the top 20 ... but when I look at the base data, CA is following WA (the bottom blue line). The caveat is that CA has a *huge* backlog of tests according to covidtracking.com.

CA has a whopping 59,500 tests in the "pending" category! More than an order of magnitude more than any other state. If their pending results break like the existing results (9191/33000 or 27% positive), that would add 16,571 positives. Right now they're sitting at 203/9191 deaths/positive, so there's the potential to add ~360 deaths to the total. They only have 203 deaths so far, so their 5.14 DPM would rise to over 10 DPM.

I really liked your graph, but don't understand these statements about CA. Why would deaths increase based on pending tests? I can understand that the number of positives would increase, but are you saying that a % of those pending positives are already dead?

So far, with all the delays for testing, I have been assuming that the number of reported deaths is a reliable number to track vs. positives. Are you suggesting that deaths are also not been accurately reported?
 
  • Like
Reactions: EinSV and Yonki
Can you do the same thing, but include CA?

Here's a website which is helpful, and allows per capita plotting as well. Can also do daily or cumulative, etc. The only downside is you can't select specific states (you can only plot from the highest value down to a state position of your choice) - but you could modify the code to do that if you wanted to. You can plot most of the data available from COVID Tracking. It also has a map which you can sweep through to see graphically how things have changed over time.

If you back out to his main notebooks, he also has data from other sources, even broken down to the county level (source is NY Times in one of those cases, at least).

CODAVIM

So will the US deaths spike to meet numbers like the 4 countries bolded with 8+% deaths per confirmed case

Yes, they will spike far in excess of that, in absolute terms. As far as the %, it depends. Since we are undertesting and undercounting significantly, our % will be a lot higher than it should be - but no idea whether it will creep above 8%. I think we'll be at over 375k cases no problem when we hit 30k deaths around April 15th, so I don't think we'll get to 8% by then.

It is the first time the captain of a carrier has told his adversaries his ship cannot fight.

After reading the letter, I definitely understand better why he was relieved of command (assuming the claims made by his superior were true). However, his letter said exactly the opposite of "his ship cannot fight." He said the ship had no problem fighting, in fact.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: jerry33 and Norbert
Fear mongering and sensationalism, what the news does best. The numbers in Santa Clara are in decline last time I checked. Yes it is good to prepare for surge, but that won't happen until the stay at home orders are relaxed.

I don’t think the bay area media has been guilty of that. More transparent and cautionary IMO. The reports I’ve seen also have come from hospitals and are about their expectations despite the period of weeks of shelter-in-place we’ve had. As for the surge they and city officials are expecting, here’s a 3/23 SFGate article from SF officials explaining it and why it’s expected. Also explains why the other day the Bay area governments tightened restrictions even more.

'Worst is yet to come': SF public health director says virus will escalate in 1-2 weeks

that 2 week projection is about on us now.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 30seconds
America’s COVID-19 testing has stalled, and that’s a big problem

2020-04-03-Covid19-testing-graph.png
 
PSA, directed to everybody, and in particular those people frantically searching for a magic bullet:

The best protection and the best cure against Covid-19 is to not get infected in the first place. Invest your energies in universal precautions. They are easy, and they are cheap. They are known to be effective. And they will do vastly more to stop the epidemic in its tracts that any pill could hope for.

Dr. Sagebrush
 
Last edited:
I really liked your graph, but don't understand these statements about CA. Why would deaths increase based on pending tests? I can understand that the number of positives would increase, but are you saying that a % of those pending positives are already dead?

So far, with all the delays for testing, I have been assuming that the number of reported deaths is a reliable number to track vs. positives. Are you suggesting that deaths are also not been accurately reported?
Testing is still in short supply. As the epidemic got started in early March an individual was at a First Robotics championship in Myrtle Beach. We won, paired with a team from NY NY. Lots of hugs and handshakes and hollering with two teams of 50 people. 10 members of our team came back with flue/bad colds. 9 never went to the doctor and one died suddenly of the flu 3 days later. No tests were available.