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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
There are many diseases that present with similar symptoms.
Also, some tests are presumably from HCPs and other frontline workers, who would be tested preemptively.
N5329K
Active Member
UVC light at 254 nM is the ideal output for disinfecting.
Robin
MXLRplus
Active Member
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
In a state of 40 million people there are going to be a lot people with these symptoms.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Yes, but perhaps far less than you imagine.
On a population level:
Those who are not infected do not die
Those who are infected but do not reach the level of seeking out testing do not die. Unknown fraction
Those who are infected and tested but do not reach the level of needing hospitalization do not die. About 7/8 in Florida
Those who are infected and hospitalized but do not reach the level of needing ICU need O2 but otherwise do not die. About 3/4
In the ICU, expertise matters a lot but 80% die regardless
Norbert
TSLA will win
Not sure what your point is. That the number of deaths has variable dependencies as well?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
@SageBrush
Much more for me easily to see and differentiate, esp with colors and icons on the lines.
I think I may have realized you have both daily? and a moving avg on top. It seems to jump out.
Much clearer.
I did research (asked spouse) I’m a protonamolous deuternope. Really bad green, somewhat bad red.
She had a deuternope colleague and a tritanope (blue) female colleague (wrong X condensed when her cones formed), never sequenced that one tho, still used x-ray films back then, so a bit slow
Thank you for making the chart way easier to read w/o bandpass filters.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Everyone can see black so maybe use that instead of 2 versions of yellow. Also the shapes used on the two versions of yellow are closer in form than the other shapes, so if you have to use similar colors give them more distinct shapes.
But not in the fluorescent black light range of UVA 400-320nm range (long range). Had hoped maybe I could repurpose some halloween black lights for use at home to disinfect the ones we have to use.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
What I don't really like about that flyer is that there are other recognized symptoms people with CV19 have that aren't listed on that form and we know that not everyone who has CV19 will present with coughing and fever for example. So it misses a lot of people potentially from seeking some type of medical advice/isolating in their household/medical treatment and keeps more carriers out there and in close contact following stay-in-place even with those in their household. Been reading how families are among the highest breeding grounds for infecting others.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I was including all hospitalizations in my definition of medical care.
I imagine that twice as many people would die without medical care but that is pure guesstimate.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not clear whether the 12k positives correspond to 113k tests or not …
ps : covidtracking thinks they are related. In that case its great because positives/total are just ~ 10%.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
There has been a fair amount of skepticism about the Chinese numbers lately.
This is a good article (it's actually kind of old now), which suggests that case reporting in China was probably fairly complete (as complete as it is likely to be anywhere else). It does not rely on any case reporting data at all - it just relies on what has been observed in genomes worldwide and their prevalance. It would be interesting to seem them redo this analysis now...
https://bedford.io/projects/ncov-phylodynamics/
Not surprisingly at all, if you project their results forward using their parameters, it implies there are likely 10s of millions of cases worldwide at this point.
This is a good article (it's actually kind of old now), which suggests that case reporting in China was probably fairly complete (as complete as it is likely to be anywhere else). It does not rely on any case reporting data at all - it just relies on what has been observed in genomes worldwide and their prevalance. It would be interesting to seem them redo this analysis now...
https://bedford.io/projects/ncov-phylodynamics/
Not surprisingly at all, if you project their results forward using their parameters, it implies there are likely 10s of millions of cases worldwide at this point.
The hard part is gauging whether states are actually doing enough testing in the first place. We've heard anecodotes of states under-testing due to lack of PPE, reagents, cotton swabs, etc.
Plus, you want to know how effectively they are backtracing. Assuming there is a point where people are supposed to go back to work.
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