Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

Andy Cuomo gets it.

“There has been a laxness on social distancing, especially over this past weekend that is just wholly unacceptable,” Cuomo continued. “People are dying. People in the health care system are exposing themselves every day to tremendous risk walking into those emergency rooms, and then they have to go home to their family and wonder if they caught the virus and they’re bringing it home to their family.”

“If I can’t convince you to show discipline for yourself then show discipline for other people. If you get infected, you infect someone else, you go to the emergency room, you put a burden on all sorts of other people who you don’t know and who, frankly, you don’t have the right to burden with your irresponsibility,” Cuomo said.

 

[ohmman]

I think you're going to have to show your work on those numbers...

Good luck with that one.

I think even if this virus was just called "SARS" or even "SARS-2" at the start instead of "Coronavirus", you wouldn't have had world leaders so dramatically under-react with their "This is just a Flu" nonsense.

Interestingly, I've read that's why the WHO didn't call it that - they feared that the public would react more seriously to it if the term "SARS" was included.

 

[Papafox]

So, @Daniel in SD , I see you rated my last post "funny". Please explain why. Let's have an honest discussion on this topic.

 

[deonb]

What is Sars2 ? What is "modern day" ?

SARS2 is shorthand for SARS-Cov-2. That's the name of the virus. The name of the sickness it causes is COVID-19.

It's like A(H1N1) or A(H3N2)v is the names of viruses, Flu is the sickness it causes.

 

[EVNow]

SARS2 is shorthand for SARS-Cov-2. That's the name of the virus. The name of the sickness it causes is COVID-19.

It's like A(H1N1) or A(H3N2)v is the names of viruses, Flu is the sickness it causes.

I understand that - but what did the OP really mean ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

So, @Daniel in SD , I see you rated my last post "funny". Please explain why. Let's have an honest discussion on this topic.

You're cherry picking data. There are other countries that have death numbers that look similar. Obviously I could post many more.

 

[deonb]

I understand that - but what did the OP really mean ?

I believe his point was if there was a virus with the R0 of SARS2 but the IFR of SARS1, it would have wiped out civilization a long time ago.

Basically a virus can be highly infectious or highly lethal. According to the anthropic principle, it can't be both.

The contrapoint to this is the bubonic plague had an R0 of 3 and a CFR of 60%.

 

[jhm]

For the armchair arithmeticians amongst us --
I was staring at my Log normal daily mortality per capita graph I post daily and realized that the curve is kinda sorta an ellipse.
Since the area of an ellipse is A*B*Pi, it is easy to calculate total expected mortality once the peak is evident.

New deaths or new cases will look roughly like a normal distribution. On the log scale this distribution, this would look like a concave parabola, a quadratic function where the coefficient on the square term is negative.

 

[jhm]

Thank you.

Just picking out KY, OR, and UT, all with similar (small) populations and near identical testing rates is quite revelatory.

Exactly.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I believe his point was if there was a virus with the R0 of SARS2 but the IFR of SARS1, it would have wiped out civilization a long time ago.

Basically a virus can be highly infectious of highly lethal. According to the anthropic principle, it can't be both.

The contrapoint to this is the bubonic plague had an R0 of 3 and a CFR of 60%.

Some of the viruses the Europeans brought to the Americas pretty much wiped out whole civilizations. A good example of why novel viruses are potentially so dangerous.

 

[SageBrush]

In many ways, the debate in the situation room between Peter Navarro and Anthony Fauci is the same one we've been having between @Papafox and @bkp_duke , with Papafox taking Navarro's position that the evidence in favor of HCQ so far is just too great to ignore at this point and bkp_duke taking Fauci's position that current studies and data cannot be relied upon and what we need are results of carefully-conducted studies with control groups.

Fauci is an extremely accomplished physician and Navarro is a Trump flunkey who knows exactly squat about medicine.

'Nuff said

 

[Papafox]

You're cherry picking data. There are other countries that have death numbers that look similar. Obviously I could post many more.View attachment 529787View attachment 529788View attachment 529789

Let's look at the specific examples you offered:
South Korea- South Korea has been used Chloroquine extensively in treating COVID-19. If South Korea numbers are especially low, it suggests the use of this anti-viral has contributed to those low numbers

Luxembourg- Sheesh, talk about cherry picking. Malaysia had a population of 31 Million in 2017. Luxembourg's population was about 600K in 2018.

Finland- More cherry picking. Finland had a population of about 5.5 million in 2018.

The reason I used Malaysia is because it has a reputation of using Chloroquine throughout the epidemic, moreso than any other country. In many ways it is the poster child for using the drug. I didn't choose Malaysia for its low numbers. Rather, I was curious to see its numbers because of its reputation for being such an early adapter of chloroquine use for treating the virus. For a counntry with over 30 million inhabitants, this is a remarkably low number of deaths.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is your most bizarre argument. There have been many epidemics in human history far more deadly than COVID-19. Modern travel just allows it to spread everywhere at once.

I'm sorry, it was rude to past something so vague and then go eat a sandwich without clarifying. Yes 1918 was obviously far more deadly, but we didn't have modern medicine and technology to limit and flatten. We sit here listening to what the TV tells us to do, at best you had radio with an uninformed lunatic on the other end back then. You certainly didn't stop kissing grandma when she walked in from the market.

This virus simply isn't nearly as deadly as most others because it can't be. A virus that incubates this long and spreads this easily is never going to be all that deadly(with modern medical support). If it were that deadly, it wouldn't be able to incubate for 13 days. That being said, I'm obviously not qualified to make these statements with any amount of certainty, just makes sense to me. If viruses like SARS2 existed with a 2-4% mortality rate under today's medical care I doubt human civilization could have been maintained.

The asexual invaders will NOT win this war, we have the technology advantage!

 

[Papafox]

Fauci is an extremely accomplished physician and Navarro is a Trump flunkey who knows exactly squat about medicine.

'Nuff said

No, @SageBrush , you're not getting off the hook by throwing flippant remarks around like that. People are dying from this disease. Try again with a response that adds something to the discussion.

 

[jhm]

I suspect most of us have seen the video now. I love that Tesla is making progress on repurposing vehicle parts into a ventilator. It is also quite generous for Tesla to give these ventilators away. But as a shareholder, I have to ask what will this cost us? When Tesla is able to ramp up production, the materials and labor alone will cost quite a bit. One ventilator might cost as much as a Model 3 to make. So is there any way Tesla can be reimbursed for this?

Anyway, enjoy the video!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I am starting to wonder why vastly more Philadelphians aren't sick. We've been doing a terrible job of quarantining and there have been more than enough cases spread throughout the city. Is it primarily the weather? Maybe they're sick, not telling anyone, and staying home. That would be a very Philly thing to do.

Sorry if this is old news already, but I'm beginning to think repeated exposure is the key. The NYC situation just seems so dramatically different than most other areas. Is the logic that they had wide community spread earliest and were just passing it around since mid-Feb with no preventive measures?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Let's look at the specific examples you offered:
South Korea- South Korea has been used Chloroquine extensively in treating COVID-19. If South Korea numbers are especially low, it suggests the use of this anti-viral has contributed to those low numbers

Luxembourg- Sheesh, talk about cherry picking. Malaysia had a population of 31 Million in 2017. Luxembourg's population was about 600K in 2018.

Finland- More cherry picking. Finland had a population of about 5.5 million in 2018.

The reason I used Malaysia is because it has a reputation of using Chloroquine throughout the epidemic. In many ways it is the poster child for using the drug. I didn't choose Malaysia for its low numbers. Rather, I was curious to see its numbers because of its reputation for being such an early adapter of chloroquine use for treating the virus. For a counntry with over 30 million inhabitants, this is a remarkably low number of deaths.

Many countries are using HCQ including the United States. I'm not arguing that HCQ doesn't work! Only that your analysis is useless.
I'm not sure what population has to do with it.
We could go back and forth on this all day. Doctors are using HCQ to treat COVID-19, we'll find out soon if it actually works.
What about Saudi Arabia?

 

[EinSV]

Boris Johnson has reportedly been sent to the ICU

 

[Papafox]

Many countries are using HCQ including the United States. I'm not arguing that HCQ doesn't work! Only that your analysis is useless.
I'm not sure what population has to do with it.
We could go back and forth on this all day. Doctors are using HCQ to treat COVID-19, we'll find out soon if it actually works.
What about Saudi Arabia?
View attachment 529792

If you look at the new cases data for Saudi Arabia vs. Malaysia, you'll see that Saudi Arabia is about a week behind Malaysia in terms of discovering the virus within the country as well as topping 100 new cases in a single day. No doubt Saudi Arabia's geography aided it in picking up the virus at a later date than Malaysia. It takes about 15 days on average for people to die of COVID-19. Malaysia's death count is now descending while Saudi Arabia's is still growing. Let's check back in a couple weeks and see how these two countries compare then.

 

[cusetownusa]

If it looked like a patient was going to die from COVID, then might as well have them try HCQ. Of course don’t market it as a cure or sure thing. Just market it as it “may” help and you “may” have side effects. I’d take that chance over the side effect of certain death from COVID.

Wouldn't it be too late at that point? Thought this treatment was needed early on before it got too serious?