Coronavirus

[EVNow]

We take our own bags -- I because I hate waste, she because she does not want to touch communal items

I've to think about getting our own bags. We currently get paper bags from the shops and use them to collect recycled / compost items. SO no waste … but lately the grocery stores are running out of paper bags and we are getting afraid of reusing paper bags. But we have switched to delivery / pickup - so we may not have much choice with our own bags.

BTW, I also use gloves when shopping. So, at the end dispose gloves, sanitize hands and then touch the car

At home all items get a wash / wipe down. We throw away all plastic packaging etc.

Not sure all this makes much sense - being out in public is probably an order of magnitude riskier than getting the virus because of packaging.

 

[EVNow]

Yes, we agree on the central point, that is anyone who ignores regional pop when doing people stats is playing games in an attempt to fool you. This is why I hold the media in contempt. They are ignoring population when screaming the sky is falling.

Luanda is just larger than Washington State which makes Washington #45 when measured as a UN city. The UN lists Chicago at 8.8 million. They might be counting the suburbs though.

Well, depends on what we are comparing for. Afterall policies are made based on states - not on per 1M population.

When we compare effectiveness - we need to use not just population, but also density, demographics - and possibly climate. Afterall south asia has a mortality many times lesser than any US state. Doesn't mean they are actually managing things better.

 

[MXLRplus]

Here's a great example why people are fighting the government mandates. The governor of California ruled that beaches must be closed. Reasonable? On the surface perhaps. The nuts and bolts are that his ruling only applies to Orange County. It has a very low infection rate. So why just Orange County? To punish them for defying him. It's backfiring big time. He is a child who was forced into politics by Getty Oil Money and his cronies. He's related to Nancy Pelosi. So pettiness is in his genes. He can't act like a rational human because he's never actually met one.

 

[EVNow]

Our politicians and media have not done a good enough job making it clear that they have to wait for the infrastructure to be in place that is required for a safe re-opening. It would stop these conspiracy places from taking hold. The conversation in the media all too binary and our politicians are too focused on what can happen when vs the logic behind it.

Pols don't want to talk about work needed to be done - because that exposes them as having not done that work when they could have. Everyone from Trump to state governors have been caught napping on the job. They don't want anyone to find out. Infact some like Cuomo want to fail up, trying to portray abject failure as great success.

That is only possible if they just talk about "the cases have to come down" rather than we don't have enough testing or contact tracing in place.

 

[deonb]

The governor of California ruled that beaches must be closed ... why just Orange County?

I take it you’re looking for an answer less obvious than: “That’s where the beaches are”?

 

[jerry33]

I've to think about getting our own bags. We currently get paper bags from the shops and use them to collect recycled / compost items. SO no waste … but lately the grocery stores are running out of paper bags and we are getting afraid of reusing paper bags. But we have switched to delivery / pickup - so we may not have much choice with our own bags.

BTW, I also use gloves when shopping. So, at the end dispose gloves, sanitize hands and then touch the car

At home all items get a wash / wipe down. We throw away all plastic packaging etc.

Not sure all this makes much sense - being out in public is probably an order of magnitude riskier than getting the virus because of packaging.

We used our own bags until the stores stopped allowing them. Really the only risk from a new paper bag is where the cashier or bagger touched it. If you sanitize your hands after carrying them, leave them in the car as long as possible, and unload the produce in the garage, the risk becomes pretty low. (It's now not possible to bag your own groceries because of the plastic walls between you and the bagger.) My hope is that even after a vaccine is developed, this kind of procedure will continue. It might even stop the annual flu.

 

[Doggydogworld]

This means there have been about 500k cases in California, probably 250-300k of which are active. That is a lot.

COVID19 projections estimates 367k total with 89.4k currently infected in CA. That's 0.2% currently infected, or 20 in a factory with 10k employees. If half the infected have symptoms and stay at home that leaves 10 infectious people coming in to work.

The forward projections say 76.5k will be infected two weeks from now. So instead of 10 infectious people wandering around, Fremont will have 8. That does not change the nature of the problem. It makes no sense whatsoever to delay reopening, IMHO.

What does make complete sense is intelligent countermeasures, e.g. 100% mask usage (even for Musk), fever screening, gloves, close break rooms, etc. Plus mandatory recording of all contacts, either via phone app or those watches the Ford employees wear. Quarantine all who are exposed at full pay (not sick leave).

There is a reason that everyone who meets with the President receives an instant PCR test.

That reads like they get tested after they meet with him, lol.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Going by
COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
About half the population and half the daily admissions are outside of NYC. I get the impression that Erie County (Buffalo) in upstate is its own hotspot.

Erie is a hotspot, but their testing shows ~6% with antibodies vs. 20%+ in NYC. The rest of the upstate region is 1-3%.

The Asian success with TTQ was built on a foundation of low infectivity due to universal mask use, social distancing, and personal hygiene. The USA is missing the foundation and out of trumpian stupidity has dug a large hole instead.

The Asian success stories started very early and were very aggressive. South Korea responded to a report of one positive test in an office building by testing ~2k directly and texting 16k passerby to go get tested at one of the many free sites. That's ~18k tests from March 9-12 for a single office building. The US had not done 18k tests in total by March 12. For an entire country of 330m! We already had 500k-1m infected on March 12.

Our entire response was a joke from day one. Masks are a tiny part of the story.

 

[MXLRplus]

Something most people forget is that Asia was hit with SARS and MERS including Korea. These are very lethal, and they put systems in place to address such epidemics. They knew the drill because they had a dress rehearsal. The US can't seem to get 50% participation for simple flu shots, and never drilled with quarantine, PPE, and mass transit networks.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That reads like they get tested after they meet with him, lol.

Ha. Would be nice.

So instead of 10 infectious people wandering around, Fremont will have 8. That does not change the nature of the problem. It makes no sense whatsoever to delay reopening, IMHO.

Thanks for looking up the exact numbers. It definitely crystallizes the grim nature of the problem.

It makes no sense whatsoever to have infectious people at the factory. No level of countermeasures will completely prevent infection of others! (See: health care workers. 1/6 of San Diego’s cases are health care workers. I understand they work closely with sick people - but the fail rate is very high.)

So the benefit of waiting is the first part of TTIQ - testing.

Seems pretty clear that everyone has to be tested prior to entering the factory. (Fever screening alone is not good enough - probably 20-30% escape rate.) Since that logistically is just not possible at the same time, probably will have to start with 2500 people, stagger start times, have people live at the factory, etc. Basically create a clean bubble within which people can work.

Musk better start planning how it’s actually going to work, rather than complaining about it.

For sure, they’re going to need layers upon layers of countermeasures. Thinking that masks and gloves *alone* are going to work is a recipe for disaster in my opinion.

The example of the Teddy Roosevelt is instructive here - I understand that is crowded, but there’s really no reason to think the factory wouldn’t approach the same end result, at a slower exponential rate.

 

[SageBrush]

The forward projections say 76.5k will be infected two weeks from now. So instead of 10 infectious people wandering around, Fremont will have 8. That does not change the nature of the problem. It makes no sense whatsoever to delay reopening, IMHO.

What does make complete sense is intelligent countermeasures, e.g. 100% mask usage (even for Musk), fever screening, gloves, close break rooms, etc. Plus mandatory recording of all contacts, either via phone app or those watches the Ford employees wear. Quarantine all who are exposed at full pay (not sick leave).

Exactly

 

[SageBrush]

Taiwan is day #6 without a case
SK has a handful of imported cases, and zero domestic cases today.

The USA is still debating whether hand washing is a good idea, and a large swath of the population has decided that mask use is not for them

---
Yeahh...
I haven't looked at the photos of demonstrators demanding that SAH end. What fraction are wearing masks ?

 

[azaz]

Newest NYC antibody results suggest only 20% spread. Puts CFR around 1% if I’m not mistaken

 

[SageBrush]

Erie is a hotspot, but their testing shows ~6% with antibodies vs. 20%+ in NYC. The rest of the upstate region is 1-3%.

This is true, but what matters is new case burden when we are discussing TTQ

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Newest NYC antibody results suggest only 20% spread. Puts CFR around 1% if I’m not mistaken

Andrew Cuomo on Twitter

Seems about right. I can’t find a detailed link to the results.

I wonder if they have made corrections for the sampling bias and specificity with these results and that is why they are lower?

 

[SageBrush]

Our entire response was a joke from day one.

No doubt

Masks are a tiny part of the story.

I strongly disagree. Masks are a very important part of lowering infectivity (transmission) in any respiratory droplet illness.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Newest NYC antibody results suggest only 20% spread. Puts CFR around 1% if I’m not mistaken

It was odd that he said it was good that the percentage went down.
Maybe they've improved their sampling technique. I've heard anecdotal reports that people were calling up their friends to come to the store and wait in line to get tested.
He said they're going to do a full antibody survey of transit workers. 98 of 74,000 employees have died of COVID-19.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

98 of 74,000 employees have died of COVID-19.

See, that only works out to 13 Tesla factory workers. What are we waiting for? FREE AMERICA NOW.

It is well worth it, because people need the Model Y. /s

 

[EVNow]

It makes no sense whatsoever to have infectious people at the factory.

This is not a bar that can be met till end of 2021. BTW, its not like all these 10k people are absolutely isolating themselves at home.

<rant>There is no reason to say minimum wage workers should work in Amazon warehouse or grocery stores or Home Depot - but low risk Fremont factory should stay closed. We have now created a "stay at home" class and the servant class who bring all the needed / un-needed stuff for this SAH class to their doors. This is how things worked in medieval times (I guess still works for the rich).</rant>

 

[Causalien]

Taiwan is day #6 without a case
SK has a handful of imported cases, and zero domestic cases today.

The USA is still debating whether hand washing is a good idea, and a large swath of the population has decided that mask use is not for them

---
Yeahh...
I haven't looked at the photos of demonstrators demanding that SAH end. What fraction are wearing masks ?

Looking at the samples from Vancouver. Where the majority of deaths are from retirement homes, it seems that being healthy makes a huge difference. To those who doesn't know. Vancouver is a city obssessed with outdoor exercises.

The shelter in place are protecting those protestors I see in the news. Who looks mostly overweight and not wearing masks. I am leaning towards opening up and letting darwinism play itself out. At this point my chocolates have ran out and thus my patience and altruism went out with it.