Coronavirus

[dhanson865]

You can buy a stylus to carry with you for use on touch screens

I have multiple stylus I could carry that came with past phone/device purchases. I'd rather just wash my hands. It reinforces a good habit and is simpler not having to try and deal with yet another item to carry around.

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"Naval ship and javits are gone and closing.

Our field hospitals will remain open.

As we are contemplating some re-opening and renewal of our services we have to that very carefully.

NYP numbers: 1,538 today. One week ago 1,887.

571 on vents, last week 652.

We have had almost 6,000 patients that have been admitted and left. We have had about 1,500 deaths across the enterprise.

One of the antiviral treatments Remdesivir may provide some relief for very sick patients. It is not at this point suggested for those who are mildly ill. It was a clinical trial that provided this information.

Visitor policy change:

Birth partners can stay with the mother and the baby throughout the entire care episode. Previously they had to leave immediately after the birth of the child. In addition, trained doulas can also be present throughout the duration. All other visitor restriction are exactly the same."

 

[Norbert]

Musk better start planning how it’s actually going to work, rather than complaining about it.

For sure, they’re going to need layers upon layers of countermeasures. Thinking that masks and gloves *alone* are going to work is a recipe for disaster in my opinion.

I don't think there is an actual plan.

I have not heard of any study that would show masks and gloves are enough. Maybe in theory quite good, but in practice? It's like making a dangerous experiment with no controls or safeguards in place, unless you keep testing everyone.

8 people is more than enough to start a spread in an environment with Rt > 1. What I see in videos is counter to the idea that there are only few interactions.

And for example nobody is providing numbers about how many of the thousands of workers are using public transportation or busses, ride sharing, etc. Because the proponents don't really care, they are biased over their ears, and that's a likely cause of failure.

 

[NikolaACDC]

“*sugar* is a great source of information”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/05/01/coronavirus-sewage-wastewater/

"Researchers say the virus can be detected in untreated wastewater within days of infection and as much as two weeks before a person grows ill enough to seek medical care — that is, if symptoms ever materialize at all.
Hirschberg and his colleagues, who have been monitoring raw wastewater coming into treatment plants in Tacoma and surrounding Pierce County for evidence of the virus over the past month, are among researchers in the United States, Europe, Australia and elsewhere who say the approach allows a glimpse at the curve of probable infections before confirmed cases begin to rise."

 

[NikolaACDC]

Some modeling-porn on 538:

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

Forecasts of the different models for May 23:

Columbia Univ.: 103K (94K—120K)

MIT: 101K (95K—108K)

Los Alamos: 94K (73K—141K)

Northeastern Univ.: 79K (74K—91K)

Univ. of Texas: 74K (65K—94K)

IHME: 72K (57K—117K)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

To punish them for defying him. It's backfiring big time. He is a child who was forced into politics by Getty Oil Money and his cronies. He's related to Nancy Pelosi. So pettiness is in his genes. He can't act like a rational human because he's never actually met one.

Or they could enforce the rules (and make them if they don't exist) of no sitting, standing, or lying down. That seems like it would be good enough. Pretty sure Newsom would reopen the beaches if they implemented such rules, which seem to be working ok elsewhere, so far.

Maybe in theory quite good, but in practice? It's like making a dangerous experiment with no controls or safeguards in place, unless you keep testing everyone.

Because the proponents don't really care, they are biased over their ears, and that's a likely reason for failure.

Yeah, I don't really understand this. We're talking about maybe a couple hundred million dollars in extra precautions and reduced operational efficiency - it's not that much! As I've said, I think it's entirely possible to open the factory safely. There's a lot to be learned from where outbreaks have taken place already. Need to study those very carefully. There may also be examples of places which have successfully prevented infection entirely. Should study those too.

Testing alone may well not be enough, due to false negative rates. So it's likely that Tesla will have to implement additional restrictions on their workers when they are at HOME. Starting now. And there should definitely be employee surveys to assess risk of each individual employee (both risk of them being infected, and the downstream risk if they do get infected). Provide employees and their families with PPE. Maybe deliver groceries and other essentials to all of them so that they don't have to go out. Make it clear that if they have violations of the enhanced quarantine requirements, they will not be allowed to work, and should not come to work, but will be paid.

Using public transportation to get to work cannot be permitted for now. All workers will need to drive themselves, individually (unless they already live together of course). No carpooling, of course.

Consider on-site housing for employees, particularly for those in high-risk situations (if a worker lives alone in a house and drives to/from work, seems like there is no need for on-site housing).

Set up a drive-through testing site beforehand for employees, so that you can get everyone tested now, so you're ready in a couple weeks (obviously, after testing, very strict quarantine is required).

Anyone identified as a high-risk for infection subsequent to initial testing (due to family environment, etc. - for example, if their family member is working already and has exposure risk) must receive an instant test onsite every day when reporting to work. Consider regular testing of all family members as well for these workers.

Sanitation measures obviously have to be extreme. Anything coming into the factory needs to be sanitized. Delivery interfaces have to be carefully studied and any crossover potential has to be eliminated.

These are just some ideas, not a coherent plan. Presumably Tesla is already going through this exercise, and we'll see all of the above measures and more rolled out, in a cohesive plan, in a week or two.

 

[Norbert]

Looking at the samples from Vancouver. Where the majority of deaths are from retirement homes, it seems that being healthy makes a huge difference. To those who doesn't know. Vancouver is a city obssessed with outdoor exercises.

The shelter in place are protecting those protestors I see in the news. Who looks mostly overweight and not wearing masks. I am leaning towards opening up and letting darwinism play itself out. At this point my chocolates have ran out and thus my patience and altruism went out with it.

The problem is also that when they come home or move about, they infect others who are innocent of such behavior.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Some modeling-porn on 538:

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

Forecasts of the different models for May 23:

Columbia Univ.: 103K (94K—120K)

MIT: 101K (95K—108K)

Los Alamos: 94K (73K—141K)

Northeastern Univ.: 79K (74K—91K)

Univ. of Texas: 74K (65K—94K)

IHME: 72K (57K—117K)

They didn't include covid-19-projections.com! 98k (84k-114k), May 23rd.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It makes no sense whatsoever to have infectious people at the factory.

It's unavoidable.

No level of countermeasures will completely prevent infection of others!

Perfection is not the goal. R < 1 is the goal.

So the benefit of waiting is the first part of TTIQ - testing.

Seems pretty clear that everyone has to be tested prior to entering the factory.

Every day? LOL. We don't have enough tests even for one-time testing, and auto factories are way back in the line when it comes to need for worker testing.

One-time startup testing of those with recent symptoms or exposure to anyone with symptoms makes sense. It would help bootstrap their inhouse test & trace program.

Musk better start planning how it’s actually going to work, rather than complaining about it.

Agree 100%. He should make Tesla an examplar that others can follow. I'm not optimistic.

Thinking that masks and gloves *alone* are going to work is a recipe for disaster in my opinion.

You missed my spiel on contact recording via phone app or wristband? If contact tracing doesn't work in a controlled factory environment with mandatory mask/glove/etc. countermeasures then we have no chance of ever containing this. Might as well just open up now.

 

[HG Wells]

Looks like we may have a hard time getting people to wear masks.


Officials remove mask requirements for restaurants, stores after employees face threats in an Oklahoma city

Officials remove mask requirements for restaurants, stores after employees face threats in an Oklahoma city

Oh Darwin please be merciful. They know not what they do.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You missed my spiel on contact recording via phone app or wristband? If contact tracing doesn't work in a controlled factory environment with mandatory mask/glove/etc. countermeasures then we have no chance of ever containing this. Might as well just open up now.

I disagree. The value of Bluetooth contact tracing I think is a bit overstated. It's probably helpful, when combined with public health authorities standard methods of contact tracing (don't really see a downside to implementing Bluetooth contact tracing as long as it doesn't create extra work that is a waste of time).

But I don't think Tesla's going to have the expertise to monitor and control contacts in a factory environment. I could be wrong. I guess they could make "group" restrooms (employees are only allowed to use certain bathrooms), so that employees within the factory are sequestered in contact-free groups. That would reduce spread & risk of everyone getting infected. Not sure the value though - since if there is an exposure, then the whole factory shuts down since that group would have to be removed. To be clear, contact tracing is something that SHOULD be done - I'm not opposed. I'm just not sure it's the first thing that should be done, as it's kind of a "close the barn door after the horse has flown" solution.

As far as testing capacity - that's a reason to wait. Testing capacity is increasing. Do the surveys. Force strict mandatory quarantines on employees NOW who are low risk. For employees in higher risk categories, find some instant testing capacity and go get it. Get those employees tested.

There are things that can be done to at least TRY to make sure there are no infectious people at the factory. They should at least try.

Every day?

As mentioned above - not necessarily. It needs to be communicated to employees that there is a zero tolerance policy for infection, and institute support measures for the employees that allow them to meet that goal (as outlined above). For some workers, it might be quite possible to have them operating in a "bubble." Home->work->home. People who live with those workers might be able to be classified as low risk (as long as they comply with mandatory quarantine as well). But going outside of that bubble - there can't be any exceptions. Anyone who goes outside the rules needs to be able to freely admit that (get a pass on coming to work for a week or whatever with paid leave with no impact on paid leave balance - so incentivize admission of violating the quarantine rules), followed by an instant test after a few days (to minimize chance of a false negative).

At this point, it should be pretty easy to assess all the exposure pathways - employees shouldn't be going to the grocery store, going to parks, beaches, going to get gas, going to Home Depot, etc. Any activity where they would normally put on a mask, they should not be allowed to do. Nothing other than Home->Work->Home. And Tesla should have a delivery service which services all their needs at home.

Those that don't fall neatly into these categories - give them a couple months off, or continue their furlough for now (they are receiving all the benefits of unemployment and the government supplementals through July as I understand it). Or give them the option of living at the Fremont factory.

Again, this is not meant to be a coherent plan - I don't work for Tesla. I'm just spitballing and presenting a few elements of a plan that actually tries to meet the objective of zero infectious workers at the Tesla factory. Which I think has to be the goal.

Coronavirus has Elon Musk acting like just another used car salesman


@EinSV - the Stanford and LA folks should have used a good old-fashioned American antibody test, rather than that Chinese junk:

Greninger Lab on Twitter

I'd like to see a repeat of their study with this test. Caveat still applies, though - I'd like to see the test repeatedly verified on OTHER groups of blood samples - it's entirely possible that certain populations will yield extraordinary sensitivity and specificity results, while other groups might perform poorly. So checking more populations and making sure none of this behavior exists is a valuable check. (They found about 1.6% prevalence in Idaho from their sample, BTW. But they have limited data on what that sample represented, exactly. Looks like Idaho has 0.6% overall prevalence from models, so seems like it's in the ballpark depending on where the sample was taken from.)

 

[jerry33]

What ever happened to self checkout? It's all I ever use in a grocery store. I'd have to sanitize or wash my hands after dealing with the touch screen but I don't have to worry about a cashier coughing or sneezing near me.

All the stores around here have plexiglass partitions screening you from the cashier and bagger (those people are also wearing masks and gloves). And why should I deprive someone of the livelihood by using the self checkout? The store doesn't pay me to be a checkout person, so why should I work for them for free?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Loving the disagree on this.




Sure it can. Test everyone whenever they enter the factory campus. Dramatically reduces the probability, assuming minimal false negatives.

This will cost some money, but it should not be prohibitive. (Obviously, logistically, there are some difficulties, but they can be worked through with pre-screening and strict mandatory isolation in advance of factory opening - this should start now!)



I have relied a lot more on Amazon over the last 7 weeks than on my Tesla. I could have got away without using a car. I would say Amazon has been critical.


Amazon is spending 4 billion in Q2 protecting their employees (hundreds of millions on tests). The question is whether Tesla will do the same.

To be clear:

1) I think the factory can open soon.
2) I think it can be done safely
3) It requires control measures that may seem excessive and expensive, but are not.
4) It will require a strong intelligent leader to make it happen properly and protect the workers.

The question is: will we be referencing these posts in 4-6weeks when there is a factory outbreak (followed, of course, by immediate plant shutdown, with a negative impact on the stock price, the company reputation, and the ability of Tesla to attract and retain the best workers)?

Or, will we be comfortable and confident that the rigorous procedures in place are protecting all the workers, and our investment? And protecting the long term mission of Tesla...

We live in a country where the federal government is running lean and low cost, with a low budget. Solidly conservative values. They keep taxes low, so that means that companies have a lot of money to use their natural efficiency (due to capitalism) to implement their own controls at much lower cost and higher efficiency than the gov’t could, if they simply were taking care of it for everyone. Or something. Unfortunately.

So this means Tesla needs to use some of their tax savings to protect their workers and the community. They are riding high, and will need to make some substantial short term investments in safety to ensure long term success.

It’s only going to be a couple hundred million per quarter, I would guess. Small cost for a short time, with large ROI.

I think Tesla is well aware of what they need to do to prepare the factory for spread mitigation. And as you've detailed, it's definitely doable.

Elon's tweet about "sanctimonious valley" points to Alameda County refusing to consider these mitigation measures and instead adopting the position of, "you'll open when we tell you it's safe to do so". I suspect the Sheriff might be involved.

 

[jerry33]

But I don't think Tesla's going to have the expertise to monitor and control contacts in a factory environment.

They appear to have it in their Chinese factory. They're probably the only automaker in North America. that has it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

They appear to have it in their Chinese factory.

Have they had any cases there? Has it been tested? The job is a lot easier when the CCP is helping you out by crushing the curve (and the people).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon's tweet about "sanctimonious valley" points to Alameda County refusing to consider these mitigation measures and instead adopting the position of, "you'll open when we tell you it's safe to do so". I suspect the Sheriff might be involved.

You'd think if that were actually the case, they could present their plan in full form to the governor, and then show a little bit of patience by waiting a week or two for feedback and revisions, before showing the plan to the public.

I don't see any evidence they're really taking this seriously. Not saying they aren't, but I haven't seen any evidence.

 

[Norbert]

You missed my spiel on contact recording via phone app or wristband? If contact tracing doesn't work in a controlled factory environment with mandatory mask/glove/etc. countermeasures then we have no chance of ever containing this. Might as well just open up now.

I missed that as well. Also, contact tracing doesn't exist yet in general, in that sense. So you are talking about some unspecified future?

 

[SageBrush]

Officials remove mask requirements for restaurants, stores after employees face threats in an Oklahoma city

There is an important lesson here -- it takes relatively few morons to bring down public health to their level.
I'm not sure how these trumper states will respond. My WAG is that businesses will piecemeal set policy. That may be a reasonable solution, in that it concentrates the morons together. Or perhaps they can institute Moron Day once or twice a week. The Southern states have always been partial to segregation anyway.

 

[Papafox]

Hawaii Update

* For the second day in a row, new cases were "1" statewide
* A total of 72 patients have been hospitalized since the pandemic began. Most are likely released now
* Hawaii County (Big Island of Hawaii) has had exactly 1 COVID19 hospitalization. This county's hospitals are bleeding red ink due to no COVID19 patients and no elective surgeries
* Elective surgeries, one on one sessions with doctors are still off limits. I have one neighbor who had cancer surgery on her tongue and is eagerly awaiting ability to get a checkup
* The statewide lockdown is in place until the end of May, after recently been increased by 30 days. Mayors of islands have some discretion to change rules, but they must be approved by governor. Golf courses and flower shops recently allowed to reopen on Oahu
* State is still likely less than halfway through unemployment claims filed in early March. Many people running out of money and not allowed to work.
* One food bank is seeing lines of cars MILES long as people are without ability to work while state unwilling to step up the unemployment check payment process
* First anti-lockdown rally at the capital was this week with 3 arrests but with many protesters who dispersed.
* Governor and Lt. governor are crowing about how safe Hawaii is relative to rest of world but haven't found the energy to get the unemployment checks out and haven't yet resorted to telling the breadless masses to "eat cake".

In short, the success with lockdown and mask wearing is now being overshadowed by government incompetence in paying unemployment claims in a reasonable timeframe and reopening businesses, particularly medical businesses, as the low numbers of COVID19 active cases should allow.

 

[Norbert]

I think Tesla is well aware of what they need to do to prepare the factory for spread mitigation. And as you've detailed, it's definitely doable.

Elon's tweet about "sanctimonious valley" points to Alameda County refusing to consider these mitigation measures and instead adopting the position of, "you'll open when we tell you it's safe to do so". I suspect the Sheriff might be involved.

Sorry to have to say that, but regarding COVID-19, on Elon's twitter account Tesla doesn't sound like they are aware of anything meaningful.

It sounds more like those assault rifle carrying protesters who yell in the face of police officers.