Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

No active cases of COVID-19

New Zealand is supposedly free of COVID-19! Full details above. We now get to see how long it lasts...

Note that they had 22 deaths and have conducted 294,848 tests.

That's a test to death ratio of 13402. This is impressive (and is the main feature that enabled them to crush the curve).

To get similar test coverage in the US, we would need to have conducted about 1.5 billion tests by now. (That probably would have resulted in effectively eliminating the virus, and it's a shame we didn't try that strategy - we definitely could have, and we could have been done by now - it's only 70x what we have actually done, and the best part is that it would have been fantastically cheap (probably only a few hundred billion).)

(For the silly people out there who think per capita matters, this is 59k tests per million people in New Zealand, and 4.5 million tests per million people in the US...which suggests we probably could have got away with fewer than 1.5 billion tests...even just 200-300 million tests probably would have been enough since there's a lot of contact redundancy when infections are dense...)

Of course, New Zealand benefits from being an island (not sure that "zero" is really possible in the United States until there is a vaccine, and I don't expect it to stay at zero in New Zealand, either), but there's a big difference between where we are at now, and a situation with minimal/no community transmission (we could have been there, just by following the advice of public health experts, starting in early February).

I sure hope what we have is good enough! Slow burn to 200k deaths I guess is the current strategy?

 

[madodel]

CDC: Some people are drinking and inhaling cleaning products in attempt to fight coronavirus

So besides don't drink or gargle with bleach, the CDC now has to tell people not to inhale it. Stupid people can be pretty creative in stupid ways.

 

[bkp_duke]

CDC: Some people are drinking and inhaling cleaning products in attempt to fight coronavirus

So besides don't drink or gargle with bleach, the CDC now has to tell people not to inhale it. Stupid people can be pretty creative in stupid ways.

Time to thin some stupid out of the gene pool.

 

[Causalien]

What I hate is piss poor public policy.

The only reason we are having to make a choice here is that we did not eliminate the virus prior to June. Why, I do not know - it was eminently possible. Model the correct behavior, educate the public, make good decisions, ensure adequate PPE for all, massive testing capacity, etc.

People who attend the protests should assume they are infected, and act accordingly. And in 5 days or so, get tested.

Till this day, I am still confused about why you guys didn't snuff it in the bud. Of all the countries, I thought USA (and Europe with their glorified healthcare) would've handled it best. Guess I was really brainwashed by Hollywood films. I think the first time I had the thought that maybe you guys don't have it together is when I landed in North Amercia and saw nobody wearing masks at the airport when just 12 hours ago I was still in Asia where everybody wore masks and some were in full hospital level PPE.

 

[KenC]

If that timeline is true, it kind of makes the assumption that Japan's fast response, mask-wearing and social distancing, as being responsible for the relatively low number of cases, 136/Million, and deaths, 7/Million, in a different light.

 

[TespaceX]

Till this day, I am still confused about why you guys didn't snuff it in the bud. Of all the countries, I thought USA (and Europe with their glorified healthcare) would've handled it best. Guess I was really brainwashed by Hollywood films. I think the first time I had the thought that maybe you guys don't have it together is when I landed in North Amercia and saw nobody wearing masks at the airport when just 12 hours ago I was still in Asia where everybody wore masks and some were in full hospital level PPE.

Just completely different cultures.
America is mostly all about the now and individualism.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Just completely different cultures.
America is mostly all about the now and individualism.

Yeah. I don't think that makes it impossible to deal with a pandemic properly though. A good solid public health infrastructure has always worked for us in spite of those American characteristics. Unfortunately was just pushed to the side here.

Anyway, there's still hope. Just need to keep ramping that test capacity, and reallocate tests to states that need it. Hopefully the reopening doesn't reignite things in the states that are more quiet so there is enough testing capacity to go around (and hopefully overall capacity will continue to increase).

Seems like states of highest interest right now (seems like things are definitely devolving in these states):
AZ, UT, AR, NC

Some moderate concerns (small but troubling positivity trends):
SC, KY

Unclear picture (they mix antibody and PCR positive test results apparently?), but might be ok due to no hospitalization issues yet:
TX

Probably ok, but will know more this week (hopefully positivity will not increase):
CA, FL


In Alameda County, positivity is roughly flat, but hospitalizations are ticking slightly upwards after a week of downward trends (nothing too major at the moment). Finding more cases than ever, in general (this is good, at the level they're at currently, anyway...).

 

[madodel]

Yeah. I don't think that makes it impossible to deal with a pandemic properly though. A good solid public health infrastructure has always worked for us in spite of those American characteristics. Unfortunately was just pushed to the side here.

Anyway, there's still hope. Just need to keep ramping that test capacity, and reallocate tests to states that need it. Hopefully the reopening doesn't reignite things in the states that are more quiet so there is enough testing capacity to go around (and hopefully overall capacity will continue to increase).

Seems like states of highest interest right now (seems like things are definitely devolving in these states):
AZ, UT, AR, NC

Some moderate concerns (small but troubling positivity trends):
SC, KY

Unclear picture (they mix antibody and PCR positive test results apparently?), but might be ok due to no hospitalization issues yet:
TX

Probably ok, but will know more this week (hopefully positivity will not increase):
CA, FL


In Alameda County, positivity is roughly flat, but hospitalizations are ticking slightly upwards after a week of downward trends (nothing too major at the moment). Finding more cases than ever, in general (this is good, at the level they're at currently, anyway...).

Who needs public health when you have bleach and Lysol to drink, inject and inhale?

 

[TespaceX]

Yeah. I don't think that makes it impossible to deal with a pandemic properly though. A good solid public health infrastructure has always worked for us in spite of those American characteristics. Unfortunately was just pushed to the side here.

Anyway, there's still hope. Just need to keep ramping that test capacity, and reallocate tests to states that need it. Hopefully the reopening doesn't reignite things in the states that are more quiet so there is enough testing capacity to go around (and hopefully overall capacity will continue to increase).

Seems like states of highest interest right now (seems like things are definitely devolving in these states):
AZ, UT, AR, NC

Some moderate concerns (small but troubling positivity trends):
SC, KY

Unclear picture (they mix antibody and PCR positive test results apparently?), but might be ok due to no hospitalization issues yet:
TX

Probably ok, but will know more this week (hopefully positivity will not increase):
CA, FL


In Alameda County, positivity is roughly flat, but hospitalizations are ticking slightly upwards after a week of downward trends (nothing too major at the moment). Finding more cases than ever, in general (this is good, at the level they're at currently, anyway...).

My comment wasn’t in response to anything public health policy related. It was just a comment on (lack of) people wearing masks as the previous poster mentioned about. I wrote it thinking about all the people here who are against wearing masks for one of numerous reasons given, especially the “my body, my choice” people.

 

[FreshPrince]

Just completely different cultures.
America is mostly all about the now and individualism.

I suppose you can blame it on no one wanting to spend money (increase taxes) on preparedness beyond studies. Basically USA was not equipped to 'nip it in the bud' and from the start we played defense ( not to overwhelm hospitals with cases ). What contributed to spred was (is) that essential workers received no protection, testing was (is) lacking at every state and PPE shortage was (is) just embarrassing.

 

[rxlawdude]

I suppose you can blame it on no one wanting to spend money (increase taxes) on preparedness beyond studies. Basically USA was not equipped to 'nip it in the bud' and from the start we played defense ( not to overwhelm hospitals with cases ). What contributed to spred was (is) that essential workers received no protection, testing was (is) lacking at every state and PPE shortage was (is) just embarrassing.

Exactly the same thing as saying we Americans suck at looking at the big picture and long range strategies.

 

[RobStark]

Interactive Map

COVID-19 meat facility closure tracker

 

[SVMike]

Next week in the USA we will have 1k less deaths than prior week. Then 1k less again week after.
It will settle at 1.5 - 2k per week until October. If no vaccine we should see a jump up to 5 - 7k per week by Thanksgiving. PPE will be in need again, still in need now.

Thank you Carnac!

 

[AZRI11]

Thank you Carnac!

You are correct sir!

 

[FreshPrince]

Exactly the same thing as saying we Americans suck at looking at the big picture and long range strategies.

I would argue that we have great science and powers of predictions but want someone else to pay for being ready (plus the rule that every time we get something done someone has to profit from it).

Also, I think reliance on federal government money have stiffed and dumbed-down state level response.

 

[rxlawdude]

I would argue that we have great science and powers of predictions but want someone else to pay for being ready (plus the rule that every time we get something done someone has to profit from it).

Also, I think reliance on federal government money have stiffed and dumbed-down state level response.

We disagree on your last point (bolded), but as someone who teaches business ethics, "money first, money now" is the mantra in the private sector.

Most corporations will only take truly social just positions if it increases profits in the short-term. Corporations like oil companies are already in a socially-disfavored business; those that actively pursue and operationalize alternative energy sources will survive. The dinosaurs (pardon the pun) that only do things the old way will not. Their solution is "feel good" ads that make people want to by their hydrocarbons (now).

 

[TespaceX]

My comment wasn’t in response to anything public health policy related. It was just a comment on (lack of) people wearing masks as the previous poster mentioned about. I wrote it thinking about all the people here who are against wearing masks for one of numerous reasons given, especially the “my body, my choice” people.

To give an example of my point, Im reading comments by parents and some teachers online in my neighborhood and in other states wanting to open up schools again for in-person learning in the Fall. And, these parents and teachers believe having the requirements of wearing masks and keeping space between desks are too restrictive. So, they’re proposing to just let schools resume as normal and whoever doesn’t want to assume any risk can stay home and do distance learning.

 

[rxlawdude]

To give an example of my point, Im reading comments by parents and some teachers online in my neighborhood and in other states wanting to open up schools again for in-person learning in the Fall. And, these parents and teachers believe having the requirements of wearing masks and keeping space between desks are too restrictive. So, they’re proposing to just let schools resume as normal and whoever doesn’t want to assume any risk can stay home and do distance learning.

That's just plain dumb and irresponsible.

 

[SVMike]

I think the first time I had the thought that maybe you guys don't have it together is when I landed in North Amercia and saw nobody wearing masks at the airport when just 12 hours ago I was still in Asia where everybody wore masks and some were in full hospital level PPE.

Why were you flying during a pandemic?

 

[SVMike]

I would argue that we have great science and powers of predictions but want someone else to pay for being ready (plus the rule that every time we get something done someone has to profit from it).

You mean like the American Red Cross, who shows up at major disasters (like hurricanes) as well as things like single family home fires with food and housing assistance?