Coronavirus

[Alfred]

Italy's health system at limit in virus-struck Lombardy

The region of Lombardy is the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak, registering the first positive test of the northern cluster and now counting at least 1,254 of Italy’s 2,036 cases. Alarmingly, 10% of Lombardy’s doctors and nurses cannot work because they tested positive for the virus and are in quarantine, the region’s top health official, Giulio Gallera, said Monday.

With officials expecting Italy’s numbers to continue rising for at least another week, until containment measures begin to show their effect, the health care emergency in Lombardy has reached a crisis point.

Some 9% of people diagnosed with the COVID-19 need intensive care, Borrelli said.​

According to our official website as at 5 March, Italy stands at 3089 cases with 107 deaths.
"Stand: 5. März 2020, 6.30 Uhr: In Italien gibt es 3089 bestätigte Coronavirus-Fälle, davon sind 107 Menschen verstorben."
Source link not linked to reduce overload there.

 

[Alfred]

Aa


There's a reason why many SE asia countries have so few infections right now. Because they learned from sars that hospital infection was the primary cause and have set up special receiving units outside and established the 3 zone procedure.

It amazes me that the western nations did not use the time china bought to look this up and copy it.

Some hospitals in Switzerland showed on TV their newly installed receiving units and explained the "triage" utilised. I do not know whether all larger medical facilities are already equipped accordingly, but efforts are clearly being made.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

According to our official website as at 5 March, Italy stands at 3089 cases with 107 deaths.
"Stand: 5. März 2020, 6.30 Uhr: In Italien gibt es 3089 bestätigte Coronavirus-Fälle, davon sind 107 Menschen verstorben."
Source link not linked to reduce overload there.

Which makes the mortality rate around 3.4%

 

[AlexS]

If we were get near 500 deliveries, we could beat Norway's highest-ever per-capita rate. I told you Teslas would sell well here, even with just one store and no Superchargers on the Ring Road yet!

I think you have most Corona cases per capita aslo, at least in Europe. So if Corona cases correlates with Tesla sales then we will see record sales in China this qtr.

Well, somehow we need to keep mood up today.

 

[jerry33]

Aa


There's a reason why many SE asia countries have so few infections right now. Because they learned from sars that hospital infection was the primary cause and have set up special receiving units outside and established the 3 zone procedure.

It amazes me that the western nations did not use the time china bought to look this up and copy it.

Not too amazing. Asian countries have a reputation of taking the long view. Western nations, particularly the U.S., are only concerned with this quarter's profits.

 

[PhaseWhite]

IMHO? "Largely". The markets - IMHO - seem to be assuming that this will go pandemic. This thread is hardly the only place where people are discussing that there's undiagnosed spread in the US. It's all over the news. I could be wrong, of course, but... it's hardly news that this is "out there".

Recovery will occur when they come to decide that life will go on.

Thanks @KarenRei for your thoughts. Based on my observations there is a quiet panic out there. Here in MN where there’s no known transmission we are seeing empty store shelves and “aggressive shopping”. People are canceling events and likely delaying large purchases that are not time critical. I’m not selling TSLA here but I did make a bet on a further broad sell off at market highs yesterday. The euphoria of the rally just feels out of whack with the disruption I think is coming. Of course I also could be wrong and I hope that I am and you’re right.

 

[bkp_duke]

While everybody sleeps in California, this could be an unknown outcome since a great part of TSLA Supporters live in that area.

Will they be happy or will fear sneak in their minds?

Or if one of our fellow California Members is still awake:

Is the state of emergency declaration making people more nervous, or is it a sign of governmental strength and makes one feel saver then the last days?

It is very different kind of story to follow a threat from distance, then acknowledging that it’s near you and your loved ones.

Honestly, the government doesn't really have a lot of bearing on the day to day lives. People were already acting stupid here and cleaning out all the toilet paper, hand sanitizer, etc. from the stores.

 

[lascavarian]

Dr Hotez of Baylor on MSNBC saying vaccine in 18 months is optimistic. Testing with Corona virus vaccines is very important as in some experience it can be unhelpful.

 

[Earlian]

@LN1_Casey @bkp_duke
Thank you for your impression first hand.

Aggressive buying is around here to. Sanitizers are out since Monday. Baby food and cleaning towels are also out. But we have new cases popping up close (as of neighbors) to us everyday.

And while fear -as you pointed out- spreads silently, the market may have the worst still coming. At least for the next two weeks I can’t imagine a relief.

Sure fatalism and the summer will settle in, but it takes more time then we want.

 

[defc0n]

Meh, the vast majority of the passengers have probably cancelled, so you're probably fine

Realistically, though, there's 314 cruise ships in the world, making new cruises every several days-to-weeks, and thusfar, only 2 cruises have had problems with the disease. Yes, sick ships can and do happen, with all kinds of diseases. But unless you have a preexisting condition / are old and frail, or have a specific reason to fear the time lost to quarantine... I wouldn't let fear rule my life. Personally.

I’m not super worried it would kill me off but more concerned about me possibly spreading it to others that are more vulnerable. If I survived mono a few years back I feel I could survive any virus now (that was absolutely terrible). And yes worried about being stuck on the boat quarantined as mentioned by others.

The Caribbean & Florida aren’t exactly hot spots for the virus right now either.

 

[avoigt]

As predicted days ago the amount of active cases did decrease over time and its now 3 days in a row below 40k. Thats very much a positive and promising as it if sustainable gives confirmation that the exponential growth expected by many did not happen but it needs of course to be taken into account that many undetected cases are out there. However take in consideration thats not new.

Those undetected cases are an unknown but I reiterate what I said before that despite some countries not having enough kids to test and many may be infected but don't know, in a situation where this remains like we have it you would have by definition more severe cases getting into hospitals who are detected as infected. Obviously we do have more serious cases and deaths but not as many as you would expect to call it exponential.

Total critical cases are shrinking since Feb 18th. Thats another really positive signal.

Since I watch the numbers developing every day I am pleased to see that South Korea seems to have peaked and now went slightly down. China is low compared to its part (below 200) as well and that in a sustainable manner. Lets all hope SK can establish a china like shrinking as well. Experts call numbers credible so the uncertainty many had should be gone now.

The remaining country with high new infected rates of today almost 600 is Iran a country I expressed my concern about before. However assuming that those numbers are correct which I am not very confident about the cases did not exponentially increase too and that could be a sign for improvement.

A underestimated factor that I tried to explain is that the lessons learned from countries like china are of course used in other countries since a while and improving which should make clear that the likelihood to get the virus under control is increasing not decreasing.

An unknown factor is how the virus developed e.g. getting more or less deadly over time.

A fear scientists said the a TV show lately that us humans have two brains one for rational and one for fear but the fear brain does not know how to do statistics. Thats I believe a very true statement and the fear increases if your country is a hot spot and infections are near. Here in Germany we have cases too even in the town I am living in and I believe you can overcome that fear by keeping a cool had and analyzing the data profoundly.

In terms of the US there are elements that point to a high risk that the virus will spread fast but if we look in the current data of the last days that did not happen and I like to underline the stamens above that even if you have many undetected and more deaths than other countries compared to the detected its not growing exponentially. It would be best though for everybody in the US to get prepared that many more cases will be found over time like with every other flue as well as more deaths.

The worst case scenario did not happen yet and if nothing unexpected appears its hard to imagine a scenario where the current trend is reversed. This is not to call it over at all but to put things into perspective.

For the stock market and the economies the shut down in China will have a negative effect on the economies globally without a doubt but that was short term and even if many let their people work from home now and conferences and events are cancelled this is not a reason to expect a dramatic GDP drop. The fear people have though may lead to a more negative impact for economies.

In Germany we have right now more cases detected than the US (but that may change quickly with a growing case count in the US and larger population) but not a single death ( 2 critical) and the only explanation I have is the healthcare system. No deaths and many cases is a reality in many countries. As the severe cases are more with the older generation in contrast to a normal flue the impact on the economy may be even lower.

The current emergency declaration for CA may sound alarming for many but the US is at the moment with below 200 cases and certainly many more not detected not in the top list like China, South Korea, Italy or Iran at all. Cases will grow without a doubt but if the US follow the WHO recommendations I won't see a reason why they won't be able to get it under control too.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 96,739 Cases and 3,308 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[dfwatt]

It is a virus Yes
An influenza virus. It's a coronavirus
But it's not 1918. It's 2020
We understand where it came from. More or less
We have sequenced its RNA. Yes, China did this quickly
We have treatments. No we don't though there are some promising candidates upon which hopes rest
We have testing to verify it. Tests exist but in most places have not been carried out in anything like the numbers required, in the USA catastrophically so
No way this will be anything like 1918. You do not know this. 50 million is a lot but many experts feel this is the right order of magnitude
It will/has had some economic impact. More than anyone can imagine
Maybe it will unify the world a little. Maybe we'll realize that we ARE in this together. Let's hope so
Panic is not an option. Panic is very much an option, perhaps a likely one, even though it is counterproductive
Y'all should watch the Netflix 'Pandemic' it seems pretty accurate and gives a lot of insight to the international efforts that have been going on for some time. Thanks but I am trying to give myself some downtime in the evenings

You are correct in all instances. I taught for years on the staff of two medical schools, and although I'm not an expert on infectious disease or a virologist this is posed to be a catastrophic pandemic. Three issues suggest this:

1) contagiousness and transmission rate (so-called R value). This is always a guesstimate but somewhere between two and three people are infected by one person with the illness. This problem is seriously exacerbated by the unusual feature of this coronavirus namely that it achieves a transmissibility threshold before people are obviously symptomatic. We don't know what this invisible window time length is but it is probably something like at least one day. That is potentially catastrophic because without testing of entire populations you have no idea who the Trojan horses are walking in your midst spreading the disease.

2) fatality rate and of course everybody zeros in on this number, as though it is the only meaningful statistic. It's not. It recently got bumped up to 3.4 percent or something like that, but this means that it's at least as deadly as the Spanish Flu. But people also don't appreciate that there are two other critical numbers: the percentage of folks who are severely ill and then the somewhat lower percentage of folks who are critically ill. The critically ill - meaning those with bad enough pneumonia that they're experiencing a life-threatening collapse of pulmonary function - need to be on respirators. ~5% of people appear to become critically ill. There are not enough respirators in this country to provide this level of supportive care which is essential for the critically ill to survive if there are more than 10-20 million cases. And that's just in this country where we have more high-tech medical equipment per capita than many other places. In other countries with a relative shortage of respirators everyone who is critically ill and not on a respirator is likely going to die.

3) inadequate early response, failure to prevent or at least seriously delimit transmission into communities, inadequate early testing, and frankly a striking and dangerous level of denial, some of which is plainly visible in the posts on this forum, and has been epitomized by the staggering incompetency at the top of the US government. This is an incredibly dangerous and potentially deadly illness, if you put these various statistical parameters together. Although a lot of people will have milder manifestations, it will kill a lot of elderly, it will kill almost anybody with COPD or other severe lung conditions, and its mortality in the elderly may be somewhere between 10 and 15%. If your over 80 and you have a pre-existing lung condition this disease is probably a death sentence.

It's troubling on a forum where we have to confront climate denial to see anybody promulgating nonsense about this illness. We've had enough of that about the climate - let's not duplicate that mistake around this illness. It's the real deal. You should be scared of it that does not mean you should panic but you need to take maximum precautions. And if you become sick you need to be responsible, get tested, and if you're positive, accept significant constraints on your activity.

Preventing widespread community transmission becomes the only way to contain this, and this appears to be well underway in many states. That means quarantines, early testing, and other infringements on what we take to be our god-given civil liberties. You are simply going to have to accept those restraints or the death toll is going to Skyrocket.

 

[bkp_duke]

For those wondering what those of us in the medical field, or still connected to it, are saying privately, this blog post is a really good example. The below is from an independent infectious disease doctor, who is an epidemiologist (i.e. a 3rd party expert in exactly what is going on). The thoughts expressed fall pretty much in line with the rumblings I've been hearing from colleagues around the world and locally.

COVID-19: What to expect — Juliana Grant, MD MPH

 

[dfwatt]

For those wondering what those of us in the medical field, or still connected to it, are saying privately, this blog post is a really good example. The below is from an independent infectious disease doctor, who is an epidemiologist (i.e. a 3rd party expert in exactly what is going on). The thoughts expressed fall pretty much in line with the rumblings I've been hearing from colleagues around the world and locally.

COVID-19: What to expect — Juliana Grant, MD MPH

The problem with that post is that it suggests that "best case scenario this will be just like a flu season with.05% mortality". We already know that's absolutely not true so the best case scenario is worse than a bad flu season. The worst case scenario might be worse then the Spanish influenza. While they make some valid points they also appear to not buy what we already know about this disease. It's a bit surprising to see an MD with a master's in public health saying that best case scenario this is just the flu. The post also contains a lot of good information towards the end but I'm troubled by the beginning.

 

[EinSV]

The current emergency declaration for CA may sound alarming for many but the US is at the moment with below 200 cases and certainly many more not detected not in the top list like China, South Korea, Italy or Iran at all. Cases will grow without a doubt but if the US follow the WHO recommendations I won't see a reason why they won't be able to get it under control too.

I view the California (and Washington) emergency declarations as positive signs that the governments of these states are taking it seriously. Hopefully we'll see more proactive steps taken in these states and others to complement the inadequate response by the US federal government.

 

[bkp_duke]

The problem with that post is that it suggests that "best case scenario this will be just like a flu season with.05% mortality". We already know that's absolutely not true so the best case scenario is worse than a bad flu season. The worst case scenario might be worse then the Spanish influenza. While they make some valid points they also appear to not buy what we already know about this disease. It's a bit surprising to see an MD with a master's in public health saying that best case scenario this is just the flu.

That simply isn't true. Right now, influenza is killing a lot more people than COVID-19.

You are correct, however, that the truth is probably somewhere in between. This, however, is not going to be as bad as Spanish Flu. That one was particularly hard on the young, and COVID-19 appears mildest in the young.

 

[dfwatt]

That simply isn't true. Right now, influenza is killing a lot more people than COVID-19.

You are correct, however, that the truth is probably somewhere in between. This, however, is not going to be as bad as Spanish Flu. That one was particularly hard on the young, and COVID-19 appears mildest in the young.

Right now. But the fatality rate from the flu is probably somewhere between a 20th to a 30th of the fatality rate of covid 19. And the covid-19 R value appears higher. So the only reason right now influenza is killing more people than the coronavirus is because we're on the early ramp up.

 

[bkp_duke]

Right now. But the fatality rate from the flu is probably somewhere between a 20th to a 30th of the fatality rate of covid 19. And it's R value appears higher. So the only reason right now influenza is killing more people than the coronavirus is because we're on the early ramp up.

Time will tell. I'm sharing what most docs are saying, privately, about COVID-19. This doc has far more experience in this are than I or anyone here that I am aware of does.

 

[dfwatt]

Time will tell. I'm sharing what most docs are saying, privately, about COVID-19. This doc has far more experience in this are than I or anyone here that I am aware of does.

People should read what the CDC is saying and skip all the other stuff. Those are the only people with world-class expertise who have vetted every single statement that is published. I am concerned that our sociopathic Administration in Washington is going to suppress what the CDC would otherwise say and water it down significantly. But that has not happened yet at least not on the website.

 

[KarenRei]

I’m not super worried it would kill me off but more concerned about me possibly spreading it to others that are more vulnerable. If I survived mono a few years back I feel I could survive any virus now (that was absolutely terrible). And yes worried about being stuck on the boat quarantined as mentioned by others.

The Caribbean & Florida aren’t exactly hot spots for the virus right now either.

Thankfully, it's much easier to protect others than yourself. Very few cases (according to WHO) are spread by asymptomatic individuals. Take your temperature daily, and if it's high, call a doctor and self-quarantine until told that you don't need to. In addition to all of the usual stuff like proper hand hygene and so on.