linux-works
Active Member
got any online links? I searched and found nothing. nothing on wiki, either, talking about being raised in poverty, etc.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
got any online links? I searched and found nothing. nothing on wiki, either, talking about being raised in poverty, etc.
Dr. J
Active Member
Pranay Prathole's responses were also accurate, and more relevant than Musk's correct statements. Unless there's a gap in my understanding of Elon's background, he too would qualify as an "amateur internet epidemiologist." Jus' sayin'.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Italy - 97 more deaths today for a total of 463.
Don't know what the testing situation in UK is - but confirmed cases went up from 46 to 319.
Coronavirus: Fourth person to die with COVID-19 in UK is woman in Wolverhampton
Don't know what the testing situation in UK is - but confirmed cases went up from 46 to 319.
Coronavirus: Fourth person to die with COVID-19 in UK is woman in Wolverhampton
https://www.insidehook.com/article/tech/elon-musk-childhood-revealed-maye-musk-memoir
They didn't grow up in extreme poverty, but they were very middle/lower class. Living in small places, eating peanut butter sandwhiches, canned soup etc.
One thing that hit me today... and I wonder if there's any papers on this possibility (should search later)...
There's a relatively new technique for finding invasive species, endangered species, parasites, etc in bodies of water: direct sampling the water for their DNA (environmental DNA analysis). It can tell you if for example a given species of fish exists somewhere in Lake Michigan, even if it's not common enough to be detected by conventional sampling with traps.
I wonder if you could discover "undetected populations" of viruses like COVID-19 by sampling wastewater treatment plants for viral RNA (alongside bacterial DNA)? RNA is even more environmentally stable than DNA, after all. Infected hosts shed viruses like crazy. And many viruses (including COVID-19) are present in fecal matter.
Wastewater treatment plants would make a nice centralized area for environmental DNA and RNA sampling; if a problematic species was found, testing could be focused on the local population to find who is infected.
There's a relatively new technique for finding invasive species, endangered species, parasites, etc in bodies of water: direct sampling the water for their DNA (environmental DNA analysis). It can tell you if for example a given species of fish exists somewhere in Lake Michigan, even if it's not common enough to be detected by conventional sampling with traps.
I wonder if you could discover "undetected populations" of viruses like COVID-19 by sampling wastewater treatment plants for viral RNA (alongside bacterial DNA)? RNA is even more environmentally stable than DNA, after all. Infected hosts shed viruses like crazy. And many viruses (including COVID-19) are present in fecal matter.
Wastewater treatment plants would make a nice centralized area for environmental DNA and RNA sampling; if a problematic species was found, testing could be focused on the local population to find who is infected.
From an investment point of view, the key question for me is why Italy should be different from other places like UK, Germany or the US.
I have seen some data suggesting less cases for these other countries. Is this simply because they are some weeks behind vs Italy? Alternatively, why should the virus spread less there?
Seeing what is going on in Italy, I am puzzled by the calm and low touch policy in the UK at the moment. Surely it would be better to stop many activities now, discourage public transport.... It feels like Italy when they were looking at China...that won't apply to us...
Or am I missing something?
I have seen some data suggesting less cases for these other countries. Is this simply because they are some weeks behind vs Italy? Alternatively, why should the virus spread less there?
Seeing what is going on in Italy, I am puzzled by the calm and low touch policy in the UK at the moment. Surely it would be better to stop many activities now, discourage public transport.... It feels like Italy when they were looking at China...that won't apply to us...
Or am I missing something?
My wife (emergency physician) says there's no realistic possibility of preventing this coronavirus from becoming a pandemic. With all the quarantines they are just trying to slow the spread in order to manage the number of people needing hospital care at any one time. Also they're hoping either warmer weather or antiviral meds will slow it further.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Thanks, that's reassuring all around. Are there any broad containment measures in the affected cantons, or not yet?
N5329K
Active Member
They are making life harder on themselves, testing-wise, by continuing to allow essentially unmonitored flights to arrive from Milan. The only check ”imposed” is to request (!) airline crews to keep an eye out for sick pax. yep. Airline crews.
That is going to have consequences.
Robin
Karen does not live in the US so maybe she doesn't feel it the way we do, but the panic from professional epidemiologists, not amateurs as you seem to insist, is because we are uniquely unprepared for this moment. the idea that when epidemiologists advise that our response so far is completely not up to the moment it isn't because they are naive fools not accounting for the simple things Elon pointed out.
from the fact that we have Trump in charge to the fact that the economy is built on debt susceptible to a shock. Trump is on the record as of Friday for not testing people because he likes the numbers where they are. The correct response is panic. We do need behavioral changes from society to minimize this. So far our situation seems to be Italy 2.0. "Panic"/behavior changes whatever you wanna call it is the correct thing because that's what all the experts are advising. The NYT interview with a doctor from WHO was enlightening on the war like stance China adopted.
from the fact that we have Trump in charge to the fact that the economy is built on debt susceptible to a shock. Trump is on the record as of Friday for not testing people because he likes the numbers where they are. The correct response is panic. We do need behavioral changes from society to minimize this. So far our situation seems to be Italy 2.0. "Panic"/behavior changes whatever you wanna call it is the correct thing because that's what all the experts are advising. The NYT interview with a doctor from WHO was enlightening on the war like stance China adopted.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
China and South Korea has a response in place that is effective - and it will become more effective with time now that they are forewarned and have practice and testing bandwidth. These countries I'm pretty sure will be able to wait and stay clean until whole country vaccination becomes viable.
Many developed countries will be able to repeat that I think - the big question is whether the U.S. will be among them. Right now I'm skeptical, unfortunately.
Africa, India and Indonesia are big question marks too IMO.
I am not convinced by that. First, places like London or Paris are equally touristy and full of Chinese. But more densely populated.
Also, I do not really buy the 'touching' story. It's not like in Italy people do that all the time, especially in the northern regions (where I come from, we never did/do that). Surely, underground, trains, buses are more effective ways to transmit a virus. Have you even been out in London any evening of the week?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Interesting - I didn't see the other replies when I saw Musk's tweets & replies page.
But what Musk is tweeting is still dumb & without proper context. He talks about "virality of covid is overstated". But what is the virality he is looking at ? Fatality rate is overstated (in US, for eg) - but what is the real rate ? Is it high enough to warrant "panic" or not ?
Musk doesn't have anymore data than we do.
BTW, here is an interesting example. Is this high enough virality ?
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’, study says
Rotte
Member
You may be confusing acute interstitial pneumonia (a form of idiopathic interstitial pneumonia) with ARDS. The terminology is really confusing so don't feel bad. ARDS is the result of your immune system attacking pathogens (can be a virus) in the lung but can also be the, result of other stressors, toxins or trauma to the body. It can cause an interstitial pattern on chest x-ray. Sometimes your immune response uses smart bombs and kills just the pathogen with limited collateral damage. If your body responds with cluster bombs, it takes out the pathogen along with all your lung tissue which ultimately lead to your lungs being unable to diffuse O2 into your body and remove CO2 from your body. That is ARDS. They are studies that have developed a predictor of NOT getting ARDS. It's called LIPS for lung injury prediction score. Look it up on internet. Hope this helps and this is obviously not medical advice to anyone. Always consult your own physician for medical questions and advice.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
China and South Korea has a response in place that is effective - and it will become more effective with time now that they are forewarned and have practice and testing bandwidth. These countries I'm pretty sure will be able to wait and stay clean until whole country vaccination becomes viable.
Many developed countries will be able to repeat that I think - the big question is whether the U.S. will be among them. Right now I'm skeptical, unfortunately.
Africa, India and Indonesia are big question marks too IMO.
Add Czech Republic to the country that should come out all right. They actually went to Taiwan and asked how they implemented their quarantine without caring about angering China. I believe every country should do the same.
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