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Her point is that any lockdown method isn't going to work unless it's global and draconian (aka china method, or japan-level sanitation), because we're humans. Any area where the virus is defeated, will eventually have to open their borders (because humans will demand freedom of movement when the "threat is gone"), which then invites the S.Korean patient #31 scenario, where any single asymptomatic vector will start the whole infection again. There's no such thing as short-term pain for the good of the vulnerable. Shelter-at-home isn't a short-term solution. Nor is it a pain-free solution. Since there can be no "global shutdown", what is our long-term solution, assuming a vaccine won't be readily available soon, nor quickly distributable? Her solution is for people to decide for themselves if they want to take the risk of infection. Also that the scare-mongerers are just as irresponsible as the people who don't care and congregate.

I think she has a point about the long-term situation, because lockdown is a response, but NOT a solution. Basically, something that's been broached on this thread - herd immunity the young (which I consider to be under 35 and under (1/3 of the population), unlike you old folks who say 50 and under) to start, mask for all, and then release the next age group as hospitable beds free up. The most at risk would then need to isolate the longest, but they're the most like to be motivated to do so too. Everyone else is getting cabin fever (my two young kids are driving me batty as I try to work from home).
Sorry, that's a fatally one-dimensional view, as I see it.
It is silly to stare oneself blind on one parameter while ignoring other, confounding factors.

OK, 1789 the choice may have been to stay in or get killed in the riots. (The cure for Révolution was not there.) But in 2020 it seems wise to stay in and WAIT FOR AN ACTUAL CURE TO APPEAR. And many will, make no mistake, in due course. Perhaps herd immunity will occur and be subject to testing.

So, the trick is to stay alive until infection is much less likely to end your own life.

Or perhaps I am misunderestimating what you are saying? It is rather late here ...
 
So fast forward a few weeks....

If I were to contract coronavirus, test positive, exhibit symptoms, and then recover....what danger would I be to others? Once I have the antibodies in place I'm good to go for making out with other recovered(or even potentially infected) persons, right?

Thinking down the line for my "recovered positives only" happy hour neighborhood BBQ in mid to late April.

Ab titers can also decrease over time and the amount one has today can be lower in the future. How fast the Ab titers fall will be a question.
 
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Well, you knew it was coming. Reopen everything for Easter. Ok, it’s confirmed. He’s definitely a Russian oil-agaric plant here to destroy the US.:eek:
Trump wants 'packed churches' and economy open again on Easter despite the deadly threat of coronavirus

if people are believers, I guess they can put their trust in their god.

if they are right, great.

problem is, if they are wrong, they spread the virus and everyone pays for their selfishness and lack of caring (for others outside their group).

the risk is too great. this isn't a game of bingo. when lives are at stake, we need to have reason win over faith. faith has not delivered, frequently, in the past. reason, otoh, has always delivered.

we just can't let everyone have their pet view of the world when so much is at stake.
 
Well, you knew it was coming. Reopen everything for Easter. Ok, it’s confirmed. He’s definitely a Russian oil-agaric plant here to destroy the US.:eek:
Trump wants 'packed churches' and economy open again on Easter despite the deadly threat of coronavirus

Actually what was said at the Press Conference this evening is that it's unrealistic to allow that in markets where data suggests otherwise: however (and this came from Fauci), there may quite possibly be a number of locations whereby the data suggests it would be OK.
 
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pinging elon: design a vent that fits in the passenger side of our cars (make it work for all the teslas).

our cars have lots of battery power, we can isolate ourselves there if we park. some cars have that micro filter jobbie (maybe add it to the 3/Y?). we have netflix/etc ability, decent enough sound, heat/ac. add in a cyberVent, maybe a tap for running water - what more could a modern person of the year 2525 want? (wait, what year is it? nevermind, idea still holds).

it could plug right into the usb ports. you won't be needing those if you're on a vent, anyway.
 
if people are believers, I guess they can put their trust in their god.

if they are right, great.

problem is, if they are wrong, they spread the virus and everyone pays for their selfishness and lack of caring (for others outside their group).

the risk is too great. this isn't a game of bingo. when lives are at stake, we need to have reason win over faith. faith has not delivered, frequently, in the past. reason, otoh, has always delivered.

we just can't let everyone have their pet view of the world when so much is at stake.
Come to church, see what you've been missing.
thumbRNS-SNAKE-HANDLE060512b.jpg
 
however (and this came from Fauci), there may quite possibly be a number of locations whereby the data suggests it would be OK.

I want to note that he had a significant caveat here - Dr. Fauci said that in those areas where it looks like things are going ok, they really want to expand testing & surveillance to make sure nothing is lurking there. Hint: they're going to find stuff pretty much everywhere. It's a giant cluster.

Until we have massive testing capacity it's really going to be impossible to open up any areas as the virus will spread faster than we can test for it. Hopefully we can grow our testing capacity faster than the virus at this point.
 
herd immunity the young (which I consider to be under 35 and under (1/3 of the population), unlike you old folks who say 50 and under) to start, mask for all, and then release the next age group as hospitable beds free up. The most at risk would then need to isolate the longest, but they're the most like to be motivated to do so too. Everyone else is getting cabin fever (my two young kids are driving me batty as I try to work from home).

Ok, let's look at the "young herd immunity" proposal. I don't have a breakdown for ICU admissions going back to 35, but I do have it up to 44 (below).

Based on below, age 0-19 form 15% of the cases in the 0-44 age range.

So between age 0 and 44 you will need somewhere from 1.7% and 3.5% ICU admissions (20-44 ICU x 85%) of a demographic that spans 184 million people in total. So that means you need somewhere between 3.12 million and 6.44 million ICU stays. We have 85000. Lots of them are busy, but let's pretend they're not. Each ICU stay will be at least a week, but let's just say 1 weeks.

So to do this, you need a coordinated effort that lasts somewhere between 36 to 75 weeks of systematically infecting people in groups, so that you can get a 100% ICU capacity, but not go over.

And you'll still end up with at least 1.5 million deaths just in that group, so good luck convincing people to do this.

upload_2020-3-23_15-26-1-png.83880
 
From main:

Throwing trillions at it will not help much. The problem is not that people don't have enough money, but that they do not feel like spending it (or even have places to spend it). And for the millions who lose their jobs, what good are $1200 checks which will last a week or two?

In the US, people will need trillions.

Those checks, if you get a couple a month per person, will keep a lot of people afloat and make it not necessary to break quarantine.

In the US, we're literally talking about how more people may die from starvation and homelessness caused by the quarantine than the disease (and, sure, there's moratoriums on evictions in some areas, but you have landlords that are openly discussing stuff like shutting off utilities, harassing tenants, and handing over properties to the bank to get people to leave), with 30% unemployment being thrown around. And, there are places to spend your money - grocery stores remain open, there's delivery services to minimize contact, etc., etc.

That's what happens when you don't have a social safety net.