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. More concerning is that deaths are going up 6-fold every 7 days

That's probably just due to some early deaths not being attributed to COVID-19 (related to the undertesting). I would expect deaths to double every 5 days or so, once we get away from that initial spuriously low slope due to underidentification. We're sloping steeply to make up for lost time right now but almost certainly not on the correct curve just yet. That doubling every 5 days will last for a 2-3 weeks, if not a little longer, due to incubation and delay to death. Assuming everywhere is in full lockdown in the US right now, which it's not. And assuming we don't run out of ventilators in New York, which we will (that's really ramp up the rate!).
 
Some anecdotes:
Major hospital group in Naples (NCH, one of two in County) stopped testing today—they ran out of tests

Major Raleigh-Durham-chapel hill NC Hospital Group will now only order a test if you have:
shortness of breath and cough over last 7 days (non allergy) & meet one or more criteria such as:

Been closely exposed to a Covid positive person
65 or older or 2 years or younger
Have a chronic disease such as auto immune, have cardiovascular disease
are overweight with BMI>40
Renal, hepatic or hematologic disease
Neurological disease.
 
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Your stated method was to use the case count from two weeks ago and to use the death count from today. That is too crude a method because many deaths occur between 3-14 days after diagnosis.

Says who? Everything I've heard so far points to 2 weeks being typical, including many comparisons I made myself. "Typical" means it can also be more than 14 days.

What you call "inflection points" appears to totally depend on the scale used to display the graphic. Not that it particularly matters, but even the percentage for those two numbers is above 1.6%.

Even so, you still calculated 1.7% for Germany. (I don't know how you suddenly got down to 0.9% in the next bold sentence.)

So you simply can't uphold your claim that anything above 1.5% would lack "decent quality".
 
Even so, you still calculated 1.7% for Germany. (I don't know how you suddenly got down to 0.9% in the next bold sentence.)

So you simply can't uphold your claim that anything above 1.5% would lack "decent quality".

Numerical noise and probably testing coverage play a role. Anyway it doesn't matter. It's in that ballpark of 0.5 to 2% assuming no health system collapse and adequate prep. That's a wide spread but there are many factors at play. It sounds like we're in agreement.
 
South Korea no lock down. They consider themselves a democracy and won't copy Dictatorship type strategies.
compares different societies
Japanese bow - very very little direct contact
Italy kiss each other all the time - and women get groped all the time.
Viruses are not new - Chicken pox & measles - apparently still in the 1980s (for sure in the 1950s, 1960s & 1970s doctors made sure we all got exposed for our immune system. I shared cookie (read infected kid ate 1/2 and I ate the other half).
In S. Korea they tracked infected - were seeing one person on average was passing on the virus to ~ 3 others. UNTIL they reached #31 - no symptoms but had contact with thousands in churches & markets & public transport
(Mary Mallon, known as Typhoid Mary, was cook - showed no symptoms infected at least 51)
Might be much better to let young get infected to build immune system.
Shut down may well cause more deaths - how? people NOT getting treatment/tests for other problems such as curable cancers.

You do know how to speed up clips? try at 1.5x then 1.75x and with Kim I can do 2x adjust with gear icon (settings)


I am starting to agree with this view.

The disease has been going on long enough and we have enough cases to show that people aged 1 to 29 have very low fatality rate and 30 to 49 has somewhat concerning but manageable rate. If they get proper care, then the CFR should be even lower.

So going forward, we can go ahead with a two tiered economy. Those from the age group 30 and up gets mandatory quarantine. ID check at entrances of all business or to enter cities and crowded area. Confiscate hotels for separation room. If multiple generation live in a house, put the young adults into these hotels while they go about their lives. Start with woman, then men. Once that's done, move on to the next group. As for kids who can't leave their parents yet. Well, they have to stay locked down.

As for those above 50. They'll have to wait for a vaccine.

Now, technically that'd work in a perfect world, but the morality of implementing such a measure and voluntarily exposing people to a virus is another matter.
 
We all die. I skipped to the end.
She seemed to be too scared to say what she really feels at the end. It sounds like she's thinking we should just start digging mass graves...
I think people still don't get that while most younger people survive many still require hospitalization.

Her point is that any lockdown method isn't going to work unless it's global and draconian (aka china method, or japan-level sanitation), because we're humans. Any area where the virus is defeated, will eventually have to open their borders (because humans will demand freedom of movement when the "threat is gone"), which then invites the S.Korean patient #31 scenario, where any single asymptomatic vector will start the whole infection again. There's no such thing as short-term pain for the good of the vulnerable. Shelter-at-home isn't a short-term solution. Nor is it a pain-free solution. Since there can be no "global shutdown", what is our long-term solution, assuming a vaccine won't be readily available soon, nor quickly distributable? Her solution is for people to decide for themselves if they want to take the risk of infection. Also that the scare-mongerers are just as irresponsible as the people who don't care and congregate.

I think she has a point about the long-term situation, because lockdown is a response, but NOT a solution. Basically, something that's been broached on this thread - herd immunity the young (which I consider to be under 35 and under (1/3 of the population), unlike you old folks who say 50 and under) to start, mask for all, and then release the next age group as hospitable beds free up. The most at risk would then need to isolate the longest, but they're the most like to be motivated to do so too. Everyone else is getting cabin fever (my two young kids are driving me batty as I try to work from home).
 
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Numerical noise and probably testing coverage play a role. Anyway it doesn't matter. It's in that ballpark of 0.5 to 2% assuming no health system collapse and adequate prep. That's a wide spread but there are many factors at play. It sounds like we're in agreement.

Yes, testing coverage plays a large role. I'm afraid that the numbers in the US still have relatively high percentage.
 
Her point is that any lockdown method isn't going to work unless it's global and draconian (aka china method, or japan-level sanitation), because we're humans. Any area where the virus is defeated, will eventually have to open their borders (because humans will demand freedom of movement when the "threat is gone"), which then invites the S.Korean patient #31 scenario, where any single asymptomatic vector will start the whole infection again. There's no such thing as short-term pain for the good of the vulnerable. Shelter-at-home isn't a short-term solution. Nor is it a pain-free solution. Since there can be no "global shutdown", what is our long-term solution, assuming a vaccine won't be readily available soon, nor quickly distributable? Her solution is for people to decide for themselves if they want to take the risk of infection. Also that the scare-mongerers are just as irresponsible as the people who don't care and congregate.

I think she has a point about the long-term situation, because lockdown is a response, but NOT a solution. Basically, something that's been broached on this thread - herd immunity the young (which I consider to be under 35 and under (1/3 of the population), unlike you old folks who say 50 and under) to start, mask for all, and then release the next age group as hospitable beds free up. The most at risk would then need to isolate the longest, but they're the most like to be motivated to do so too. Everyone else is getting cabin fever (my two young kids are driving me batty as I try to work from home).
What scare mongers? The scare mongers were right. I feel like many people still haven't accepted how bad the situation is.
At the minimum we need to be on a trajectory that doesn't overwhelm our hospital system. We probably aren't on that trajectory even now.
35 and younger is NOT young enough. Look at the hospitalization rates for 20-44 year olds.
We distribute the flu vaccine to half the population every year. I would not worry about the ability to distribute a vaccine.
People want an easy solution but all our options are painful right now. The economy will not do well when our hospitals are overrun no matter how many times people say it's no worse than the flu.
Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19
Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 11.58.49 AM.png
 
compare other strategies from other countries - really informative - watch to the end
Sorry but she totally dismisses the risks. Her attitude is I am young and healthy so let me go out and party. If I catch it it will just build my immune system. And this is from a person with no training and background.
 
Yes, testing coverage plays a large role. I'm afraid that the numbers in the US still have relatively high percentage.
1 million tests a day - less than a year to test everyone - and we should therefore do annually.
$3,000/test x 350 million less than we give the Federal Reserve Cartel every month or so they can buy treasury bonds.
seems logical to me - you ??

irony? sarcasm? way of the world? no wonder I'm not part of the 1%
 
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Well, you knew it was coming. Reopen everything for Easter. Ok, it’s confirmed. He’s definitely a Russian oil-agaric plant here to destroy the US.:eek:
Trump wants 'packed churches' and economy open again on Easter despite the deadly threat of coronavirus

Pretty sure that since Louisiana, Florida, and other states are just now ramping, that is going to be impossible.

Still no lockdown. Looks like we’re headed to a million cases at this point. We’ll be there in 2 weeks or so. Don’t think many churches will be packed on Easter Sunday, with more than a million active cases wandering around, half of which will be undetected.

Beautiful timeline though.
 
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An interesting paper from the Diamond Princess patients (pre-pub/not peer reviewed yet).

Of the 104 people from the ship who tested positive, 76 were classified as non-severe (asymptomatic, mild), and 28 patients severe, so 73% asymptomatic or mild symptoms. Severe was defined as having clinical symptoms of pneumonia.

The median age of these patients was 68 years old. Given the older skew of the population, this is another data point in favor of there being a large percentage of covid-19 cases that are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038125v1.full.pdf
 
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