Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

ECDC data through Apr 7
The US continues to look like a time delayed Italy
Italy and Spain are declining
Switzerland is peaking
Germany is uncertain

 

[Christine69420]

Still Denmark and Norway got their infections in mostly other ways and have gone about isolation very differently, as has most other countries, and yet the numbers aren't that different. Certainly not more different than can be explained by differences in reporting.

Not correct! Norway also got most of the initial infections from assumed youngish people skiing in Austria and Italy.

And I think numbers are quite different:

 

[dhanson865]

US nCFR is ~3%, not 6%. And Iran just makes numbers up.

16 deaths / 214 cases =0.0747663551401869 (most recent batch of data is ~7.5%)
1,970 deaths / 33,331 cases = 0.0591041372896103 (most recent day of data is ~5.9%)

12,857 deaths / 400,519 cases = 0.0320984448843962 (total at the time of this post is ~3.2%)
12,841 deaths / 400,335 cases = 0.032075636654302 (total, stopping at the last full day of data is ~3.2%)

Is that the end all CFR, no it isn't. The number is changing as the deaths roll in. For you to say it's 3% flat when we are above 3.2% and rising is understating it.

Deaths in the US are increasing at a faster rate than confirmed cases are increasing in the US.

 

[sparcs]

New York City sees stabilization in coronavirus hospital cases, city needs to 'double down' on suppression, Mayor de Blasio says

• New York City has seen a slowing need for ventilators and a stabilized hospitalization rate for coronavirus cases, but the city should “double down” on efforts to suppress the pandemic, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Wednesday.
• De Blasio said there is a risk that coronavirus cases could begin to increase at a faster rate if residents do not adhere social distancing and shelter-in-place policies.
• “We’re now seeing some leveling off,” de Blasio said. “Something has started to move."

 

[deonb]

Deaths in the US are increasing at a faster rate than confirmed cases are increasing in the US.
View attachment 530250

That indicates new cases are growing faster than testing.

 

[dfwatt]

Can anybody judge if there is any truth in this?

Attention Required!

He makes a lot of extraordinary claims but the more serious paper about this basic hypothesis (that essentially ancillary viral proteins pry a porphyrin molecule off of hemoglobin rendering it dysfunctional) could be onto something.

I'm going to comment on that much more serious scientific paper in more detail. But briefly, there's a big difference between claiming that this is a mechanism and this guy's claim which is that it is the mechanism.

Additionally this defective hemoglobin Theory should be fairly easy to probe because I suspect that the altered hemoglobin does not show up as hemoglobin in a standard laboratory assay but I'm not sure about that. In other words simple lab value should expose this if this is true. Any laboratory Tech guys that know more about this could weigh in and clarify which would be helpful.

To my knowledge there have been no systematic reports of low hemoglobin in patients with more severe manifestations of covid-19. In any case it's an interesting Theory and I'll post more on this later. My general concern about this is that single Factor theories in biology have a tough road to hoe. In biology it's not about billiard balls and single factors or falling dominoes it's more about recursion and positive feedback between multiple destructive processes. In other words it's Loops not Dominos. The free Iron would be an oxidative stress and therefore pro-inflammatory molecule adding to the burden of inflammation, while of course contributing to hypoxia. This guy's claim however that inflammation has nothing to do with severe hypoxia is absolute BS.

 

[Daniel in SD]

New cases peaked 5 weeks ago, though, and has been 50-150ish per day for 4 weeks. Seems deaths should be closer to 2/day by now.

Perhaps Korea's extensive test & trace program caught a lot of cases very early, up to a week before symptoms appeared. That would lengthen the lag on these charts vs. someplace like Italy or NYC where they only test people who've had it 2-3 weeks.

The huge spike in cases was from the mega church super spreader so that sounds plausible. They tested an enormous number of people very quickly and found people that had been infected over a wider range of time. Those people also tended to be much younger than the general population. I still think you'd see a large bump in the deaths and it dropping by now though.

 

[EVNow]

So, today we may see both 1 Million confirmed cases and 50k fatalities total.

Also, mindbogglingly about one China worth of cases and fatalities are added daily now worldwide.

This was six days back.

Yesterday we had one China worth of cases and 2x China fatalities in a single day.

 

[cusetownusa]

That indicates new cases are growing faster than testing.

It does? May be true but don’t deaths lag cases by 14-21+ days? So once we hit peak daily cases it will take a few weeks to reach peak daily deaths?

 

[Daniel in SD]

That indicates new cases are growing faster than testing.

No. We could be reducing the rate of infection. That will drop before the growth rate of deaths does.
What are the percentage of tests that come back positive? That is a good indicator of testing capacity. Of course every state is in a different situation so I'm not sure the aggregate number means anything.

 

[SageBrush]

San Francisco is an excellent example (by American standards, anyway) of a smart response to Covid-19
San Francisco COVID-19 Data Tracker | DataSF | City and County of San Francisco

February 25, 2020
Mayor Breed declares a local emergency to prepare for COVID-19
March 5, 2020
First reported positive COVID-19 cases in San Francisco
March 16, 2020
San Francisco issues Stay at Home order

Current daily mortality is under 1 per million per day (10 cumulative for population of ~ 1M) and they have reached peak daily cases. Once they institute mandatory universal mask use they will be well on their way to exiting this epidemic.

Bravo, SF

 

[skivi]

ECDC data through Apr 7
The US continues to look like a time delayed Italy
Italy and Spain are declining
Switzerland is peaking
Germany is uncertain

View attachment 530252

The Peak in switzerland was on 20th march 2020, since then it's declining.
Lockdown till 26th April 2020.

Source: COVID-19 Information Switzerland
or Switzerland Coronavirus: 22,789 Cases and 858 Deaths - Worldometer
both on the same day.

 

[SageBrush]

The Peak in switzerland was on 20th march 2020, since then it's declining.
Lockdown till 26th April 2020.

Source: COVID-19 Information Switzerland
or Switzerland Coronavirus: 22,789 Cases and 858 Deaths - Worldometer
both on the same day.

The graph I posted is daily deaths. This is Switzerland from the link you posted

You can see that the daily reporting is choppy, but if you smooth it out it appears to be that they are at the top of a predictable 'bell' curve. The Worldometer is also under-reporting compared to ECDC

 

[skivi]

The graph I posted is daily deaths. This is Switzerland from the link you posted

View attachment 530264

You can see that the daily reporting is choppy, but if you smooth it out it appears to be that they are at the top of a predictable 'bell' curve.

ah sorry i meant daily new cases.

 

[jerry33]

Hundreds of American, Southwest airlines employees test positive for COVID-19

apparently they are just talking about masks being distributed now:

American Airlines union says 100 flight attendants have coronavirus


Should they be doing some sort of health check and temperature screenings on all employees?

That would likely have happened back when airline prices were regulated. These days--unlikely.

 

[EVNow]

New cases peaked 5 weeks ago, though, and has been 50-150ish per day for 4 weeks. Seems deaths should be closer to 2/day by now.

Perhaps Korea's extensive test & trace program caught a lot of cases very early, up to a week before symptoms appeared. That would lengthen the lag on these charts vs. someplace like Italy or NYC where they only test people who've had it 2-3 weeks.

Active cases in S Korea is still ~ 3.5k. So, 5 fatalities a day is not very surprising. To truly track fatalities, we need to know # of people in ICU ...

US nCFR is ~3%, not 6%. And Iran just makes numbers up.

I don't think Iran has the resources to properly test and account for everyone … there may not be political will to do it anyway. Hospitals probably treat everyone with flue like symptoms as presumptive Covid patients - like they were doing in Wuhan.

 

[EVNow]

It's interesting comparing Sweden having much less restrictions than Denmark and Norway. The population demographics very similar. Yeah the Danes are mostly drunks but apart from that not much difference in age, health etc.

Denmark fatalities 218 (+15)
Sweden fatalities 687 (+96)

I see clear differences.

 

[copyhacker]

That indicates new cases are growing faster than testing.

IMO it indicates that new cases were growing faster than testing 2 weeks ago.

 

[dhanson865]

It does? May be true but don’t deaths lag cases by 14-21+ days? So once we hit peak daily cases it will take a few weeks to reach peak daily deaths?

and from peak cases to peak deaths the ratio of deaths will increase as they outpace new cases.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Active cases in S Korea is still ~ 3.5k. So, 5 fatalities a day is not very surprising. To truly track fatalities, we need to know # of people in ICU ...

They've had almost exactly 3500 cases over the last month. That means that cases are taking an average of a month to resolve. That seems a lot longer than I thought.
It still doesn't explain why there was no peak in deaths from the peak in cases. My only explanation is that the peak of cases was almost all low risk groups (younger and more female).