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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Yes, it was from a bat that a pig touched.
The chef stuffed the pig. Then did not wash his hands.
Then he shook Gwenth Paltrow's hands.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(19)30222-5/fulltext
Harnessing wearable device data to improve state-level real-time surveillance of influenza-like illness in the USA: a population-based study
'
Acute infections can cause an individual to have an elevated resting heart rate (RHR) and change their routine daily activities due to the physiological response to the inflammatory insult. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate if population trends of seasonal respiratory infections, such as influenza, could be identified through wearable sensors that collect RHR and sleep data.
Methods
We obtained de-identified sensor data from 200 000 individuals who used a Fitbit wearable device from March 1, 2016, to March 1, 2018, in the USA. ' . .
Harnessing wearable device data to improve state-level real-time surveillance of influenza-like illness in the USA: a population-based study
'
Acute infections can cause an individual to have an elevated resting heart rate (RHR) and change their routine daily activities due to the physiological response to the inflammatory insult. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate if population trends of seasonal respiratory infections, such as influenza, could be identified through wearable sensors that collect RHR and sleep data.
Methods
We obtained de-identified sensor data from 200 000 individuals who used a Fitbit wearable device from March 1, 2016, to March 1, 2018, in the USA. ' . .
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Norbert
TSLA will win
Definitely more likely, since it would be the first step. But will it be sufficient, in the US, to get R_effective below 1 ?
In the US, the virus has spread into most corners of the country already. We are seeing that mitigation only gradually reduces infections. So the virus will remain in many corners, even if in small quantities.
The White House task force seems to still deflect questions asking for wide-spread infection-testing (as opposed to antibody testing), but even country wide test & trace would already require lots of infection testing all over the country. They don't really seem to be committed to providing even that level of testing consistently. (Except Fauci likes to make remarks about test & trace.)
Considering how wide spread the virus is in the US, really effective test & trace may be almost the same as testing everyone anyway.
And there is no alternative sufficiently reliable to say we don't need any of that.
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Just heard that currently there are 300 Clinical Trials underway worldwide. The race is on.
Seriously??? Contagion had a fictitious virus that killed large numbers of young, healthy people. This is nothing of the sort. Again, I have to ask: where were you in October 2019? Were you calling for a national shutdown because the upcoming flu season was going to cause:
1. 39 to 56 million cases
2. 18 to 26 million doctors visits
3. 410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
4. 24,000 to 62,000 deaths
Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates
This happens every year in the US. The main fatalities every year are the same for Covid-19 and the flu. Where were your calls for government to enforce social distancing, wear masks, etc.??? That would have worked just as well for the flu as it does for Covid-19. You could have saved up to 62 thousand people had you been vigilant.
This is a new virus, thus called Novel Virus. Not a routine flu that we have vaccines for. The earlier data suggested 2M deaths.
Is China shutting down Wuhan an over-reaction?
Where have you been? Watching FAUXNEWS?
It appears you have been in a coma for the past three weeks. You've already lost this argument. Move on to the next form of minimization and BS. This form is out of date. I am confident that you can improve your game and with practice come up with something new however.
dqd88
Member
Random thought/question - since the coronavirus's outer casing is a lipid layer, is there a temperature that would essentially cause it to melt? Let's say you exposed the virus to 150 degrees fahrenheit for a few seconds, would that melt it's outer lipid layer?
Norbert
TSLA will win
If you extrapolate the New York State situation to the whole country, we would have ~165,000 deaths already, with mitigation having started more than 2 weeks ago. Obviously without mitigation it would already, today, be much more than that.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I wonder how accurate this is. Makes it look like I'm worse off in Knoxville than I'd be if I were in Nashville or Memphis.
and Florida looks pretty nasty if you zoom back out a tad.
from US Health Weather Map by Kinsa
Totally and completely unbelievable. There have been no results. Or at least no published results so this is just made up. And the source has a reputation for being far right I mean like really far right. Slightly to the right of Breitbart.
Dr. J
Active Member
At a hospital in Chicago, a non-randomized sample found that 30-50% of patients tested for COVID-19 have antibodies in their system, suggesting they already had the virus and have potential immunity.
I'm guessing a non-randomized sample at one hospital could believably show those results. Why it's newsworthy....? I dunno.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hmmm, a phlebotomist reports on early data for a test that was just announced and is not available in most locations, sounds a bit dodgy.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Deaths today were again a little lower than expected, 22,105 down from projected 20,577. This again reduces the projected ultimates to 71k. It also suggests that April 10 could stand as the peak.
It seems that there may be more reporting lags on Sundays. If counts stay below expectation, we'll continue to see the end come sooner. But equally true, if the pace picks up, we expectations could get much worse. The value of a tracking model like this is that it helps us see if we are making progress bending the curve.
2020-04-12 22,105
2020-04-13 24,048
2020-04-14 26,001
2020-04-15 27,952
2020-04-16 29,891
2020-04-17 31,809
2020-04-18 33,695
2020-04-19 35,544
2020-04-20 37,348
2020-04-21 39,102
2020-04-22 40,802
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Yeah, I thought that was an unrealistic part of the movie. I think if the virus were that deadly people would be scared sh*tless and we would have been able to wipe it out like SARS or MERS (even though those were far easier to contain than SARS-CoV-2).
Would the economy in New York be booming right now without a shutdown? I'm skeptical.
It's a shame that it looks like Sweden is not going to continue their experiment and will soon implement similar measures to us. Though it sounds like their economy is already taking a big hit just from people's personal choices.
The flu is really bad BTW and we should invest more in trying to get rid of it. It's not really comparable though and I'm sure you've heard all the arguments already.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Pretty believable. If you have symptoms you're probably already producing antibodies. The PCR tests for COVID-19 aren't 100% accurate (I've heard as low as 70% I think). Many of the people getting tested are getting tested because they were in close contact to someone else who tested positive so they may have already had it and been asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.
I don't really understand the ranges though:
“A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus,” Chicago City Wire reported Thursday.
What does that mean? Surely they know exactly the number who tested positive. Or are they trying to correct for the accuracy of the test?
so much for telling states to get their own ventilators...
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