Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

We don't have any numbers, no one is testing. Everything is an assumption.

NY stands at 10.5k, NYC at 7.3k. I doubt well see NYC double from here by the end of May. Perhaps this calendar year if this goes poorly in wave 2.

Hold your horses, NY still has 168.5k cases yet to resolve.

 

[jhm]

UW model, just updated, shows 68.8k expected dead

Nevada's est went up from I believe 245 to now 272.

Dumb-ass model seems to lag a few days behind. I wonder if we are seeing a transition from NY driving the stats to other states. Dumb-ass only looks at national figures, so it might not pick up on some of the emerging hotspots until they are big enough to impact the national numbers.

 

[Daniel in SD]

With an IFR of 1%, that is 2.3 million deaths,
with an IFR of 1.5% that is 3.4 million.

None of these numbers have been disproven or even seriously challenged. You certainly can't rely on them being wrong.

I would argue that the IFR numbers have been seriously challenged. I'm still very skeptical that it's below 0.5%. Hopefully antibody tests (that don't have false positive rates of 5%!) give us a more accurate number soon.

 

[eevee-fan]

Dumb-ass model seems to lag a few days behind. I wonder if we are seeing a transition from NY driving the stats to other states. Dumb-ass only looks at national figures, so it might not pick up on some of the emerging hotspots until they are big enough to impact the national numbers.

... compared to Trump's 'gut feeling' that we're gonna go from 15 cases to 0 cases, because the virus will suddenly just disappear. Right...

 

[jhm]

... compared to Trump's 'gut feeling' that we're gonna go from 15 cases to 0 cases, because the virus will suddenly just disappear. Right...

You just inspired me to come up with new model names: Trump Gut-Feel Model, Wandering Eyeball Model, Small Thumbs Model, and so on.

 

[ohmman]

Just a local update here - Sonoma County has adopted a mandatory mask in public places order as of April 17th. Basically, any indoor place except your own home, and any outdoor space where you cannot maintain 6' separation.

If anyone cares about the details, they're here.

 

[Norbert]

I would argue that the IFR numbers have been seriously challenged. I'm still very skeptical that it's below 0.5%. Hopefully antibody tests (that don't have false positive rates of 5%!) give us a more accurate number soon.

There have been lower estimates, especially in the times when Germany and SK still had lower CFRs, but what are the serious challenges?

 

[eevee-fan]

Just a local update here - Sonoma County has adopted a mandatory mask in public places order as of April 17th. Basically, any indoor place except your own home, and any outdoor space where you cannot maintain 6' separation.

If anyone cares about the details, they're here.

Now, there's talk of it airborne up to 13 ft. Waiting for mandatory helmets soon, esp for the military (storm troopers).

 

[defc0n]

Alright, time to bring a least one raw data point to this thread which has turned into speculation central with a paucity of data.

Everyone is speculating about what the level of herd immunity in the population is right now, with people saying "there are there tons of silent carriers" spreading things around, that are "we above 20% (or even 10%) of people that have been infected and recovered", etc. etc. etc. I even hear this ALL the time out of my neighbors. They say "oh, I had something that sounds EXACTLY like the milder version of COVID-19 back in January, so I think myself and my family are probably immune and we need to lift the SIP order."

Well, at least in San Diego county, that is FAR from true.

I spent 6.5 hours today at COVID Clinic in San Diego. They were doing drive up antibody testing as well as swabs for PCRs. It was very easy to tell what tests were being performed because they put a different color placard on the windshield of every car in line (red was anti-body only testing).

Now, this is a self-selected group - these are people that THINK they had the symptoms of COVID-19, and are willing to pay $75 a pop to get tested (insurance accepted only for the PCR, not for the anti-body).

I got there about noon, and got tested about 6PM, my results came in about 10 minutes after that. I love people watching and did a LOT of that here (and Netflix - thank you Elon for putting that in the car).

When I got my results, I explained to the nurse I was a physician and was curious what their percent positive is looking like for the antibody test (FYI, they are doing both IgG and IgM on the test strip). She told me that she doesn't have exact numbers to share, but that she had been there all day and the positive antibody results were well below 5% out of everyone that they had tested that day (today was the first day). They had done well over 1000 tests by the time I was tested.

It's anecdotal, I'm the first to admit that, but less than 5% out of a group that believes they had symptoms consistent with COVID-19 means that we are a LONG LONG LONG way from herd immunity.



Hunker down people, we are just at the beginning of this.

Based on the data, what is your estimate of the mortality rate for all cases across the entire population?

 

[defc0n]

There are 18 M people in NYC, plus a ton in Jersey that all got washed in CV for a month and infected what.....20-40% of the population? 15k of them are going to die.

Extrapolate that out and tell me how we possibly get to 2.2M nationwide. It's mathematically embarrassing we're still talking about it.

Im speculating a worst case with no social distancing or lockdowns taken and no further improvements in treatments, that the US as a whole would experience 1-2 million deaths.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Unless they had gone to Covid hit countries, that is extremely unlikely.

Yep. Take your pick of the various illnesses you could have had here in this thread from Bedford. (influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, metapneumovirus and seasonal coronavirus are options...). Trevor will tell you why if you were sick before February 15th in Washington State, it almost certainly was not SARS-CoV-2:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

Extrapolate that out and tell me how we possibly get to 2.2M nationwide. It's mathematically embarrassing we're still talking about it.

It is mathematically embarrassing, I agree. But not in the way you think.

One of the interesting challenges for the US will be managing a very diverse country where infection rates probably vary by 2 orders of magnitude in different regions.

Practically speaking, though, it likely will make very little difference, with the current infection prevalence. 10% of the population being able to work is not that much more helpful than 1%.

The math never gets us to 2.2M under any scenario, even if the entire nation were packed like NYC sardines.

We don't have any numbers, no one is testing. Everything is an assumption.

We certainly don’t have any numbers from you. Every now and again you come on here, spout some crazy stuff, without explaining at all how you get to your numbers, It would be great to see some sort of numerical support for your fantastically optimistic (delusional?) viewpoint.

I doubt well see NYC double from here by the end of May.

I think it’s slightly more likely than not that NYC will double their deaths by the end of April. That would be only 500 deaths a day or so.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There have been lower estimates, especially in the times when Germany and SK still had lower CFRs, but what are the serious challenges?

I'm thinking of the recent German paper that reported 15% of a population testing positive for antibodies (using an accurate test!) and used that to calculate an IFR of 0.37%. I haven't seen an explanation of their methodology though. Hopefully there will be some studies soon from the US. I just hope they don't make stupid mistakes like assuming that all people currently infected will survive, using inaccurate tests, or choosing unrepresentative samples.

 

[wdolson]

I'm thinking of the recent German paper that reported 15% of a population testing positive for antibodies (using an accurate test!) and used that to calculate an IFR of 0.37%. I haven't seen an explanation of their methodology though. Hopefully there will be some studies soon from the US. I just hope they don't make stupid mistakes like assuming that all people currently infected will survive, using inaccurate tests, or choosing unrepresentative samples.

The problem I saw with that German study was it was one small town on the Netherlands border where a Carnival had been held in February and Gangelt had a major COVID outbreak afterwards. To be truly accurate the test should have done a deep dive into several towns all over Germany.

Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to covid-19 in one town in Germany

A lot of news stories are taking study results and over reaching on the conclusions.

When searching for the above link I found another story that the Germans are planning more widespread antibody studies that should show a clearer picture of the situation in the entire country.

 

[TEG]

Im speculating a worst case with no social distancing or lockdowns taken and no further improvements in treatments, that the US as a whole would experience 1-2 million deaths.

All this talk of different strategies resulting in different calculated amounts of deaths reminded me of a scene from the old movie "Dr. Strangelove". I was going to avoid posting a clip (maybe a bit in bad taste), but then your "defc0n" username pushed me over the edge:

 

[bkp_duke]

Based on the data, what is your estimate of the mortality rate for all cases across the entire population?

My single experience is completely inadequate to make a prediction of IFR like that.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

BTW, here's the story of a local doctor who got covid in Evergreen. It almost killed him - and he was on ECMO for a week. He was healthy and just 45.

He Was a Doctor Who Never Got Sick. Then the Coronavirus Nearly Killed Him.

Another article about the same guy. Sounds bad. I remember Fauci saying a few weeks ago, “There will be, as we’ve seen in influenza, an occasional person, who’s young and healthy, who winds up getting COVID-19, seriously ill and dies," and I thought at the time he was likely underplaying the risk - I didn't like the comparison to the flu. Seems like it might not be like the flu.

He more or less admitted today at the press conference that he had underestimated the disease, actually - when he was asked whether he would have done anything differently...he basically said (I'm paraphrasing to support my point ) he had underestimated the disease.

Time to set up a little soap tray in your garage... stomp in soap mixture for 1 minute before moving to a drying towel/rug, then onward to the house.

Reminds me of when I was visiting Ireland in the year 2000 or so during the foot and mouth epidemic. Trays of soapy water everywhere.

 

[wdolson]

He Was a Doctor Who Never Got Sick. Then the Coronavirus Nearly Killed Him.

Another article about the same guy. Sounds bad. I remember Fauci saying a few weeks ago, “There will be, as we’ve seen in influenza, an occasional person, who’s young and healthy, who winds up getting COVID-19, seriously ill and dies," and I thought at the time he was likely underplaying the risk - I didn't like the comparison to the flu. Seems like it might not be like the flu.

He more or less admitted today at the press conference that he had underestimated the disease, actually - when he was asked whether he would have done anything differently...he basically said (I'm paraphrasing to support my point ) he had underestimated the disease.



Reminds me of when I was visiting Ireland in the year 2000 or so during the foot and mouth epidemic. Trays of soapy water everywhere.

This is just my observation, but I've noticed that the stories I've heard of generally healthy people who get hit hard with COVID are also under tremendous stress when they come down with it. If that is true, that is bad news for healthcare workers who are the most stressed people in the world right now.

 

[cwerdna]

A pastor in LA is encouraging his flock to congregate in mass gatherings. As a reader of medical science he had this to say

He fits in well here, as another layperson who does not have enough sense to heed the actual experts.
His lawyer says that social distancing of 6 feet was maintained, but according to the article 1,800 people were inside a space that I measure as 100 ft by 100 ft on Google maps.

Hmmm

Controversial Louisiana pastor hosts Easter Sunday service for almost 1,500 people happened over Easter, in defiance of that state's law prohibiting gatherings of more than 10 people.

If one cares, I caught part of the interview CNN did with him before Easter. Skip to 0:48 of

.
Right now, Louisana per United States Coronavirus: 587,173 Cases and 23,644 Deaths - Worldometer is at 190 deaths from COVID-19 per 1 million population. That ranks them #3 after NY and NJ. I wonder how much worse it's going to get there over the next few weeks? Will they pass NY and NJ in terms of that metric?

 

[jeewee3000]

Dear Ladies and Gents.

I visit TMC way less than I used to before COVID19 (me and my wife are working from home with two children, it's harder than I imagined it to be) but I see more and more flame wars erupting.

People insulting one another is something that used to be a rare event on TMC and now I unfortunately read it every time I visit.

Can we please attack the information and not the person? Thanks.

And you can disagree all you want (I'm expecting some ), my opinion will stand.

(on topic: here is the official Belgian Data in dynamic graph form, updated every workday. Our curve is flattening. Coming Wednesday the government will inform us if the Covid-measures are extended. Most expect extended measures until at least May 3rd.)

 

[cwerdna]

The risk to teachers in any age group is very, very high (about 10x as dangerous as the flu for 20-49 age group!). For older teachers, it is a non-starter. And it's not just the teachers, to be clear - the issue is that schools become a gathering location and will quickly cause super-spreading. There is some data on this, and there are downsides, as you mention. But the dangers are high!

This happened in hard hit NYC: Coronavirus News: 21 teachers among 50 NYC education employees dead of coronavirus.