Coronavirus

[NikolaACDC]

Germany looking to start reopening next week
...

No, they're not reopening next week.
They just now came to an agreement about rules/guidelines for the next few weeks.

• Social distancing enforced until at least May 3.
• Highly recommend mask usage when in public.
• Recommend to avoid unnecessary travel.
• Stores/shops with sales area of up to 800sqm (~8600sqft) will be allowed to open again with some restrictions on Monday April 20 -more detailed decisions up to the state governments.
• No large events until at least August 31.
• Restaurants and beer-gardens should not get their hopes up for re-opening anytime soon
• Religious congregation not allowed either
• Will re-evaluate April 30.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Here is some of the data. Couldn't find the exact graphs data i looked at previously but this should give a picture of it in Sweden. If not some of these premises are true i just cannot understand why deaths are rising but new intensive care unit patients for Corona remain steady with almost no social distancing.

Date -Total Deaths
Apr 15 antal döda: 1220
Apr 07 antal döda: 618
Apr 02 antal döda: 307
Mar 30 antal döda: 167
Mar 26 antal döda: 78

New corona patients in intensive care units (they are not full currently)
View attachment 532656

There is a delay from ICU admission until death but given that ICU data I would expect deaths to level off at less than 40 per day (since some people do survive).
One explanation could be that patients with a low chance of survival are not being put in ICU. For older patients the chance of survival is very low when they are put on a ventilator.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Anyone point me to explanation of how a test for this virus actually works?

Real-time polymerase chain reaction - Wikipedia

 

[HG Wells]

Every time you think his narcissism has peaked he tops it...
Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process: report

"Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process"
"The Post reported the final decision was made Monday night, and will delay the first batch of checks to be mailed out."

I hope he is signing each one individually,
Would keep him out of trouble.

 

[EVNow]

Every time you think his narcissism has peaked he tops it...
Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process: report

"Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process"
"The Post reported the final decision was made Monday night, and will delay the first batch of checks to be mailed out."

Its all about the election. Remember he didn't invite any Dems for signing either. Expect to see ever increasing "outside norms" behavior as election approaches.

Behavior of this virus in the fall will make the election in November really crazy.

 

[yttrasil]

There is a delay from ICU admission until death but given that ICU data I would expect deaths to level off at less than 40 per day (since some people do survive).
One explanation could be that patients with a low chance of survival are not being put in ICU. For older patients the chance of survival is very low when they are put on a ventilator.

That was a thought as well, however no such prioritization has been made until this point as it has yet not been necessary (although it is in the plan if necessary) that I've read for ICU cases. Another week will give a better answer for sure, but might be necessary to look on a more regional level than country wide as Stockholm is more affected than other parts as of now hence analyzing from a whole might give the wrong result.

 

[dqd88]

Seems to my memory the Spaniards got disease #8 which by your own list was worse. This weakens your argument.

This attempt at at an analogy (Spaniards etc) does not work. Disease is part of the risks and rewards of global travel today just as then IMO.

Really, what we are is the conquerers and the survivors (from whichever region of earth). We are their descendants. That's just fact. They survived wars and famines and many diseases.

There is some optimal amount of disease for us humans. Too much will kill us. Too little will kill us. Imagine a baby that is kept in a bubble from birth; shielded from every single possible germ. Let's say that kid turns 20 yrs old and is put into the world. Probably at that point, even a household rhinovirus (common cold), being the very first pathogen for that individual, could result in serious illness and death. So clearly, we must "take our medicine" so to speak. Some amount of germ exposure let's us adapt to the world in a healthy way, even though it is painful at times. But yes, on the other end, some diseases we must avoid, because they could become an "existential threat", but Coronavirus doesn't even come close.

 

[EVNow]

Anyone point me to explanation of how a test for this virus actually works?

Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction - Wikipedia

 

[Yuri_G]

I have had a hard time modelling the current cases, infection rates, intensive care cases and deaths while trying to get this to fit in a model. There was no way i could explain the reality with the currently used models. Until...

I had a discussion with some peers regarding modelling/outcome, how none of the general models used can explain the spread and death rates in different countries overall with the high expected r0 (current cases/expected cases(including asymptomatic)) and death rates of say China-Italy-Sweden-Iceland (different cases), with how deaths (rising)/intensive care(unexpectedly lowering) cases in Sweden (no lockdown, little distancing) and partially the US are just contrary to what one would expect from the expected r0 looking at infections and the current estimated death rate.

A piece to add to the puzzle and a potential simple hypothesis is that death rates and severe cases are much higher at the onset of the the epidemic (day ~45-50(Wuhan, Italy etc)) as the cases that are the most vulnerable have more interactions with people due to their care needs while also requiring less viral load to become infected. Hence one would see a higher rate of hospitalization/deaths early on that would later flatten out rapidly which appears to be happening in Sweden with severely less ICU cases being reported while not having a lockdown or much social distancing, while the number of overall cases still seem to increase and many people are proven to be asymptomatic spreaders. Testing would be able to prove what is true, but comparing the countries and graphs/policies/outcomes above i think this piece of the puzzle would explain things a lot further.

Overall this would implicate a faster recovery overall, less stress on society, an implicated fatality rate being much lower than currently thought and that such a heavy hammer and periods of lock down would not be as needed with less dancing, especially not in some countries with say less obesity and cleaner air. Any arguments/cases against this that could prove this though wrong?

Sweden is at 119 deaths/million of population. The US is at 83/million. I wouldn't call Sweden's mitigation measures, or lack of, a success looking at that metric.

 

[jerry33]

I don't want to spend the time thinking about any counter arguments, but let's hope that Sweden stays the course, and let's check back on this theory in a week. They say there is no substitute for experimental science.

As long as you're not part of the experiment.

 

[TEG]

Not sure what was up with the disagree...

I have concluded that some people are so upset about COVID-19 that they take out their frustrations by clicking disagree on anything that mentions it.

 

[yttrasil]

Sweden is at 119 deaths/million of population. The US is at 83/million. I wouldn't call Sweden's mitigation measures, or lack of, a success looking at that metric.

I'm not saying it is a success whatsoever, is extremely risky and the current policies are not based on currently known science. Yet, the divergence in the data is there with a running flat curve for total admitted ICU cases, hence i go about trying to find what factors could explain that if there is no social distancing/lockdown and a very high r0.

 

[dqd88]

Not so wide. And I have both an M.D. and a Ph.D. So I guess my "opinion" gets double weight.

Well now that you've turned this into a dick swinging contest, here is a Stanford MD + Ph.D.

*Jay Bhattacharya is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University.

*He directs the Stanford Center on the Demography of Health and Aging.

*Dr. Bhattacharya’s peer-reviewed research has been published in economics, statistics, legal, medical, public health, and health policy journals. He holds an MD and PhD in economics from Stanford University.

I'm gonna guess that your resume doesn't stack up to his.
I side with his approach. He's a very objective and data driven thinker.
But I'm sure you will conjure up some excuse as to why you're superior to him.

Jayanta Bhattacharya's Profile | Stanford Profiles

 

[MD70]

Coronavirus Vaccine Prospects

This is an excellent overview of the current vaccine development.

 

[TEG]

...FWIW my own hypothesis is that Sweden has a lot going for it that will be hard to replicate in other countries. We have clean air, a high number of people with the CCR5-delta 32 mutation...

What is the story on CCR5-delta 32 with regards to COVID-19?

Any populations with natural genetic resistance to Covid-19? | Peak Prosperity
Frequencies of gene variant CCR5-Δ32 in 87 countries based on next-generation sequencing of 1.3 million individuals sampled from 3 national DKMS donor centers - ScienceDirect

 

[DanCar]

... Behavior of this virus in the fall will make the election in November really crazy.

Cold weather respiratory diseases are just starting to ramp then. Face mask usage, distancing, more social requirements to stay at home with a cough, and general paranoia will limit virus outbreak in that time frame is my guestimate. Will get even more interesting when it really ramps up in winter a couple of months later. Flu season typically peaks in February.
The Flu Season | CDC

Flu-peak-activity-updated

• DanCar
• Apr 15, 2020

Flu peaks in Februrary

 

[Yuri_G]

I'm not saying it is a success whatsoever, is extremely risky and the current policies are not based on currently known science. Yet, the divergence in the data is there with a running flat curve for total admitted ICU cases, hence i go about trying to find what factors could explain that if there is no social distancing/lockdown and a very high r0.

If the ICU admission curve is flat for Sweden it would seem that there were no super spreader events that took place like there likely were in the countries hit the hardest. I'm just trying to point out that Sweden is still not doing well even without a major outbreak epicenter. It's 8th in the world in deaths/1 million of population.

 

[TEG]

I like how this was written:

COVID-19 Vaccine Will Close in on the Spikes

 

[dhanson865]

Every time you think his narcissism has peaked he tops it...
Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process: report

"Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process"
"The Post reported the final decision was made Monday night, and will delay the first batch of checks to be mailed out."

I didn't see his signature on the direct deposit I got a few days ago.

Who still gets paper checks from the IRS? I haven't done it that way in something like 5-10 years now, maybe longer. I don't remember.

 

[N5329K]

Well now that you've turned this into a dick swinging contest, here is a Stanford MD + Ph.D.

*Jay Bhattacharya is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University.

*He directs the Stanford Center on the Demography of Health and Aging.

*Dr. Bhattacharya’s peer-reviewed research has been published in economics, statistics, legal, medical, public health, and health policy journals. He holds an MD and PhD in economics from Stanford University.

I'm gonna guess that your resume doesn't stack up to his.
I side with his approach. He's a very objective and data driven thinker.
But I'm sure you will conjure up some excuse as to why you're superior to him.

Jayanta Bhattacharya's Profile | Stanford Profiles

Tl;dr: "Nobody knows the numbers."
I find the best contributors here stick to facts, and go on to identify their conjectures, opinions, hopes, fears, etc. Politics, not so much.
Robin