Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

Another non-positive study about HCQ, this one from China with 150 patients

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Brando]

There might be a bad flu virus going around.
[need an electron microscope to see a virus - I guess that would be a time consuming to just find the damn virus]
How do they confirm COVID-19 ? by symptoms?. How are autopsies done? Oh, you can't as considered toxic waste if it might be the "Virus".
Get some refer trucks and save the bodies. No funerals, might spread the virus.
Tell (don't suggest) in fact make arrest/fine/jail people for leaving home. Close down beaches & parks & walks & everything in general.
After all we live in a free society, right? We could have a vote, but no one can count ballads accurately - just ask DNC.
I'm watching an Orwellian Novel. Perhaps this is a new virtual reality game?
Must be Big Brother. No one else powerful enough to pull this off. Just who the hell is Big Brother anyway?
Suggest buy prison company stocks, ever person year = $60,000 min. revenue. US has under 3 million locked up, must be room for more.

Don't know if the world has gone crazy or just my view.

Luckily I'm retarded or retired, I forget. I stopped flying when TSA started harassing passengers. I couldn't tell one freeway from another except for the green & white signs had different languages. And high rises made NYC look old and LA plain. Thankfully I traveled when I should have been working a job and going into debt buying houses.

I really hope you found something better to do than read this rant.

Can't have too many friends, do a favor, it might get returned when you could use it.

@Daniel in SD PS- what do I think is really going on? As we are having a re-run of the 2007/8 crash - I think it is just a distraction/cover up. Largest transfer of $ to the top. I just wish those at the top would be more productive and not just leave it all to that South African guy.

 

[Alfred]

A lot of people are looking at Sweden to see what could be the outcome of less intervention. Some people(like Trump) want to use Sweden as a warning example to argue why strong interventions are better, some look at Sweden to show that less intervention is better. Whatever the outcome, at least it’s an interesting experiment that might be useful for policy decision for other countries.

Anyway, I was surprised today when the first report after the Easter holiday came in, +169 new deaths spread out over the last few days was a lot less than I expected. Number of new confirmed cases are down, number of new deaths averaged over the last few days seems to be going down, numbers of patients currently in ICU are down while number of available ICU beds are growing. Maybe numbers are lagging, we will see over the next week, but the health organisation are optimistic and think we are past the peak. From what I have seen of this virus, I think we should be careful to think that the worst is behind us, but for now it is looking cautiously optimistic.

Some people have been saying that Sweden is going for herd immunity. The Swedish health organization has never claimed this, what they are saying is that they are trying to keep numbers low, slow down the spread and flatten the curve. Imo they have been very unclear with what is their strategy, sometimes it sounds like herd immunity, but they are denying this. Their stated goal is to protect the old and vulnerable, which imo they have failed at. They also want to have a sustainable response that we can keep for a long period of time. Also they have tried to bring into equality into the equation, as an example not everyone can work from home, thus it was wrong of Spotify to tell their workers to work from home. They got a lot of angry comments for this statement, but if one reads their mission statement, equality seems about as important as saving lives.

FWIW my own hypothesis is that Sweden has a lot going for it that will be hard to replicate in other countries. We have clean air, a high number of people with the CCR5-delta 32 mutation, we are a very individualistic country, seldom liYou ve many generations in one household, a lot of people supplement with vitamin D, and we have been practicing social distancing since before the virus. Maybe our CFR will be lower than in Wuhan, Milano, Madrid, NYC etc. Initial numbers seems to indicate that 10-20% of people in Stockholm could have had the virus already.

Tl;dr Sweden will be used as an example to argue for less intervention...

The article here comments the current situation in Sweden. It is not entirely pretty as their death toll reaches 1000.

 

[bkp_duke]

There's a wide spectrum of opinion amongst MDs and PhDs; some of whom I side with.

Not so wide. And I have both an M.D. and a Ph.D. So I guess my "opinion" gets double weight.

 

[Brando]

The article here comments the current situation in Sweden. It is not entirely pretty as their death toll reaches 1000.

I estimate about 400,000 dead from car accidents world wide. Shut down may well drop that number this year. Only your imagination will limit what policy makers might do with this data point. Logic/reasoning doesn't seem a factor in our declining empire.

 

[SageBrush]

The article here comments the current situation in Sweden. It is not entirely pretty as their death toll reaches 1000.

Sweden is now at ~ 10 deaths/M per day and so far has a 1.1x daily growth rate. If their curve does not start flattening soon they will be be forced to change course. I hope they choose stricter social distancing instead of SAH but I am not familiar enough with the country to have any guess how they will go.

 

[DanCar]

You absolutely don't want that (perhaps two layer automatic doors would be an alternative). The reason is bathroom doors give insects (flies) a place to wipe their feet before leaving.

Most of the airports I visit don't have doors and I don't see insects as an issue.

 

[bkp_duke]

Sweden is now at ~ 10 deaths/M per day and so far has a 1.1x daily growth rate. If their curve does not start flattening soon they will be be forced to change course. I hope they choose stricter social distancing instead of SAH but I am not familiar enough with the country to have any guess how they will go.

One of my lead programmers is in Sweden. According to him, the opposite is happening. They are forcing his family to stop home-schooling and send his kids back to school.

 

[DanCar]

Hmmm … how does testing & checking temperature have an effect on
- Infectious before symptoms appear
- asymptomatic
?

Masks & gloves do. But how will they handle lunch / break rooms ?

I wonder what they do in GF3. They should have some experience they can transfer to Fremont.

Some people who have been described as asymptomatic haven't really been asymptomatic and actually had a temperature or were taking anti fever meds.
How to handle lunch break rooms? Lots of space, go outside. Bring a lunch box. Clean shared areas frequently. Make more space for breaks. Use conference rooms and lobby.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Every time you think his narcissism has peaked he tops it...
Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process: report

"Trump's signature to be on stimulus checks, delaying mailing process"
"The Post reported the final decision was made Monday night, and will delay the first batch of checks to be mailed out."

 

[Daniel in SD]

@Daniel in SD PS- what do I think is really going on? As we are having a re-run of the 2007/8 crash - I think it is just a distraction/cover up. Largest transfer of $ to the top. I just wish those at the top would be more productive and not just leave it all to that South African guy.

I think we're having a global pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus. It happens sometimes.

 

[SMAlset]

Some people who have been described as asymptomatic haven't really been asymptomatic and actually had a temperature or were taking anti fever meds.
How to handle lunch break rooms? Lots of space, go outside. Bring a lunch box. Clean shared areas frequently. Make more space for breaks. Use conference rooms and lobby.

For areas of the country that have wide open corporate campuses, thinking ie. google/apple, going outside in good weather could be an option. But suspect for most companies especially in urban situation not very applicable. And then where do people who can go outside go when we go into fall/winter again.

 

[RobStark]

Map from Washington Post showing CV concentration.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

 

[yttrasil]

I have had a hard time modelling the current cases, infection rates, intensive care cases and deaths while trying to get this to fit in a model. There was no way i could explain the reality with the currently used models. Until...

I had a discussion with some peers regarding modelling/outcome, how none of the general models used can explain the spread and death rates in different countries overall with the high expected r0 (current cases/expected cases(including asymptomatic)) and death rates of say China-Italy-Sweden-Iceland (different cases), with how deaths (rising)/intensive care(unexpectedly lowering) cases in Sweden (no lockdown, little distancing) and partially the US are just contrary to what one would expect from the expected r0 looking at infections and the current estimated death rate.

A piece to add to the puzzle and a potential simple hypothesis is that death rates and severe cases are much higher at the onset of the the epidemic (day ~45-50(Wuhan, Italy etc)) as the cases that are the most vulnerable have more interactions with people due to their care needs while also requiring less viral load to become infected. Hence one would see a higher rate of hospitalization/deaths early on that would later flatten out rapidly which appears to be happening in Sweden with severely less ICU cases being reported while not having a lockdown or much social distancing, while the number of overall cases still seem to increase and many people are proven to be asymptomatic spreaders. Testing would be able to prove what is true, but comparing the countries and graphs/policies/outcomes above i think this piece of the puzzle would explain things a lot further.

Overall this would implicate a faster recovery overall, less stress on society, an implicated fatality rate being much lower than currently thought and that such a heavy hammer and periods of lock down would not be as needed with less dancing, especially not in some countries with say less obesity and cleaner air. Any arguments/cases against this that could prove this though wrong?

 

[NikolaACDC]

For areas of the country that have wide open corporate campuses, thinking ie. google/apple, going outside in good weather could be an option. But suspect for most companies especially in urban situation not very applicable. And then where do people who can go outside go when we go into fall/winter again.

The upper Midwest would like to ask what 'again' means?
We had some snow and mornings in the low 20's the last few days.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I have had a hard time modelling the current cases, infection rates, intensive care cases and deaths while trying to get this to fit in a model. There was no way i could explain the reality with the currently used models. Until...

I had a discussion with some peers regarding modelling/outcome, how none of the general models used can explain the spread and death rates in different countries overall with the high expected r0 (current cases/expected cases(including asymptomatic)) and death rates of say China-Italy-Sweden-Iceland (different cases), with how deaths (rising)/intensive care(unexpectedly lowering) cases in Sweden (no lockdown, little distancing) and partially the US are just contrary to what one would expect from the expected r0 looking at infections and the current estimated death rate.

A piece to add to the puzzle and a potential simple hypothesis is that death rates and severe cases are much higher at the onset of the the epidemic (day ~45-50(Wuhan, Italy etc)) as the cases that are the most vulnerable have more interactions with people due to their care needs while also requiring less viral load to become infected. Hence one would see a higher rate of hospitalization/deaths early on that would later flatten out rapidly which appears to be happening in Sweden with severely less ICU cases being reported while not having a lockdown or much social distancing, while the number of overall cases still seem to increase and many people are proven to be asymptomatic spreaders. Testing would be able to prove what is true, but comparing the countries and graphs/policies/outcomes above i think this piece of the puzzle would explain things a lot further.

Overall this would implicate a faster recovery overall, less stress on society, an implicated fatality rate being much lower than currently thought and that such a heavy hammer and periods of lock down would not be as needed with less dancing, especially not in some countries with say less obesity and cleaner air. Any arguments/cases against this that could prove this though wrong?

How many people in Sweden are in ICU? Hospitalized?
Where are you getting your information for death rates of people infected earlier?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Germany looking to start reopening next week, NYC is "thinking about it".

Perfectly fine for both locations. Germany did and will do a great job if testing and isolating, in NYC......we just did so poorly that everyone's already been exposed.

 

[yttrasil]

Here is some of the data. Couldn't find the exact graphs data i looked at previously but this should give a picture of it in Sweden. If not some of these premises are true i just cannot understand why deaths are rising but new intensive care unit patients for Corona remain steady with almost no social distancing.

Date -Total Deaths
Apr 15 antal döda: 1220
Apr 07 antal döda: 618
Apr 02 antal döda: 307
Mar 30 antal döda: 167
Mar 26 antal döda: 78

New corona patients in intensive care units (they are not full currently)

 

[Brando]

side note: +1 million Chinese visit California/year since 2015

5 years later, about 3,000 per day from China
L.A. welcomed over 47.3 million tourists in 2016 - Record Number of Chinese Tourists Visited Los Angeles in 2016 worth a a quick look.

PS- color me skeptical of any numbers from government agencies/people/hospitals when funding/grant/emergency money is being paid.
Anyone point me to explanation of how a test for this virus actually works?

Seems to me viruses have been hosted by most every living thing (do plant have viruses too?) for hundreds of millions of years and some how immune systems have learned to cope. Perhaps extinction events - saber tooth tigers etc. of large mammals 10,000 years ago from viruses vs human hunters. just kidding

sorry if all this is old news - read I haven't read most of this thread.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Any arguments/cases against this that could prove this though wrong?

I don't want to spend the time thinking about any counter arguments, but let's hope that Sweden stays the course, and let's check back on this theory in a week. They say there is no substitute for experimental science.