Coronavirus

[hcdavis3]

Boy that whole statement looks like one massive projection.

Ya think Doug??

 

[dhanson865]

Protestors against the stay-at-home order in Michigan block streets leading to Sparrow Hospital

reportedly blocked the entrance, exit, and streets.

 

[dfwatt]

Well now that you've turned this into a dick swinging contest, here is a Stanford MD + Ph.D.

*Jay Bhattacharya is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University.

*He directs the Stanford Center on the Demography of Health and Aging.

*Dr. Bhattacharya’s peer-reviewed research has been published in economics, statistics, legal, medical, public health, and health policy journals. He holds an MD and PhD in economics from Stanford University.

I'm gonna guess that your resume doesn't stack up to his.
I side with his approach. He's a very objective and data driven thinker.
But I'm sure you will conjure up some excuse as to why you're superior to him.

Jayanta Bhattacharya's Profile | Stanford Profiles

Whatever else this guy might know or might have to contribute to the discussion is unfortunately disqualified by the grotesquely counterfactual statement that he makes in the first 20 seconds. Additionally his entire argument is premised on the assumption that there are huge numbers of asymptomatic already infected and now immune people in the United States. Huge numbers. That's unlikely.

I also am a bit worried that he's appearing on a Hoover institution video because they have a lot of axes to grind and they're not famous for their unbiased presentation of science including their already discrediting track record around climate change, big tobacco, and now covid-19. So this is a good example of a cherry-picked outlier.

 

[bkp_duke]

Protestors against the stay-at-home order in Michigan block streets leading to Sparrow Hospital

Wow.

OK, there is a right to protest. But to potentially put people's lives in danger by blocking off a hospital . . .


Can we take the plate numbers of all these people and then deny them access to that same hospital if/when they get sick?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Peer-reviewed article on the temporal dynamics of viral shedding. This makes the virus quite difficult to contain, and should inform the methods we use to control this after we open back up:

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19

As expected, in these transmission pairs, in addition to the simple clearly presymptomatic transmission (red dot after green bar), there are a couple examples of cases where the person who did the infecting became symptomatic after the person they infected became symptomatic (red dot after blue dot) (And no, I was not able to tell with a quick read how they determined the direction of transmission in those cases, but I guess I trust them?).

 

[dfwatt]

Protestors against the stay-at-home order in Michigan block streets leading to Sparrow Hospital

reportedly blocked the entrance, exit, and streets.

I hate to keep tooting my own horn but I still think this is yet another indication for Idiot Spray.

Anecdotal reports of its Effectiveness keep rolling into my website. For example when applied from overhead at the last of the Trump rallies there were many reports of individuals waking up as though from a dream and thinking or in some cases even verbalizing "what the f-- am I doing here! This guy's a moron. And the guy next to me . . . . he's a moron too! I need to get home and do something useful."

As impressive as this sounds, its effectiveness is not anywhere near 100%. Approximately 35% of the population appears immune to its effects. We are researching this, but we believe that after a certain number of times watching Fox & Friends, there is irretrievable brain damage that no amount of Idiot Spray can reverse. The critical over-under number for views of Fox & Friends to create this condition is unknown but it appears to be somewhere around five hundred.

 

[SageBrush]

NYS mandates mask use to maintain social distancing outside the home.
Straight from Andy Cuomo in today's speech.

Belated, but first state in the US.

An amusing moment came when a follow up question asked about enforcement. Cuomo said no fines for now (veiled threat of non-compliance) and he expected fellow citizens to help. "Buddy, where is your mask?" in a polite New York way.

 

[dhanson865]

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”

― Issac Asimov (1980)

 

[bkp_duke]

polite New York way.

That's a juxtaposition of terms if I've ever seen one.

 

[dfwatt]

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”

― Issac Asimov (1980)

Yes and the foolishness and gullibility to conspiratorial crazy ideas is part of what makes people vulnerable for political manipulation, classically by sociopathic leaders interested in consolidating nearly absolute power, and where a basic tool in their toolbox is the drumming up of fear aimed at Boogeyman of various kinds (which are almost always tribal out-groups seen as potential Intruders by the less fortunate masses). It's been more than 2,000 years since the Greeks realized that a democracy fails if the populace is not very well informed and capable of making good decisions. We seem to be hell-bent on proving their point.

 

[ZeApelido]

Here’s a YouTube video version of a Caltech presentation I watched a couple weeks back. It is presented at a layman’s level for the most part, so is a pretty good primer of how the virus works within the cell, and how it compares to HIV and other viruses (many differences of course).
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OBcc_dk9Q9U&feature=youtu.be

Her name sound Swedish. Cannot trust wrt pandemics

 

[SMAlset]

Santa Clara County updated their dashboads, adding one for long-term care too (see site for more info).

Here’s what they said about the 14th’s records: “Case Data was not updated on 4/14/20 due to system issues with California Reportable Disease Information Exchange (CalREDIE). The dashboard update on 4/15/20 reflects total number of confirmed case and deaths to date. The number of new cases and deaths reported today reflect only the new cases and deaths reported in the most recent 24 hour reporting period.“

From KPIX5 and Gov. Newsom’s briefing today:

On Wednesday, the state reported 63 new deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities from coronavirus in California to 821. Newsom said the state had a total number of 24,424 positive cases.

Of those cases, Newsom said that while the hospitalization rate went up 1.5 percent, the total of 1,175 people in ICU was slightly down .2 percent.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sweden is now at ~ 10 deaths/M per day and so far has a 1.1x daily growth rate. If their curve does not start flattening soon they will be be forced to change course. I hope they choose stricter social distancing instead of SAH but I am not familiar enough with the country to have any guess how they will go.

And Swedes always stand so far away from each other. Ever try to go up and talk to some random Swede?

Their facial expression would make you think you were giving them the coronavirus.

 

[DanCar]

... But to potentially put people's lives in danger by blocking off a hospital . . .

Are potentially people's lives in danger by sending them to poverty?

 

[bkp_duke]

Are potentially people's lives in danger by sending them to poverty?

You can have the protest without blocking the hospital.

That's a specious argument.

 

[ZeApelido]

I have a PhD in Biomedical Engineering so....


I know fark all about coronavirus

 

[ZeApelido]

New daily high of 2492 in U.S # of deaths via US Historical Data. This may differ from other sources on day cutoffs?

 

[SageBrush]

Ever try to go up and talk to some random Swede?

Not often. Their entire projection says "I do not want to be bothered by others."

Which actually surprised me because the Swedes are downright outgoing when they are out of their country.
I presume it is in part a selection bias, and in part an adaptation when they are in Sweden.

Not to be misunderstood, they are a warm, generous and very polite people even at home. But frivolous encounters are frowned on and they guard their privacy and personal space. There has to be a good reason for them to give it up.

 

[ZeApelido]

Not often. Their entire projection says "I do not want to be bothered by others."

Which actually surprised me because the Swedes are downright outgoing when they are out of their country.
I presume it is in part a selection bias, and in part an adaptation when they are in Sweden.

Not to be misunderstood, they are a warm, generous and very polite people even at home. But frivolous encounters are frowned on and they guard their privacy and personal space. There has to be a good reason for them to give it up.

I lived there for 1.5 years. Very nice people once you get to know them, but yeah random interactions are way less than in the U.S. When I got on the airplane to head home at the end, some American guy started talking to me...and I was like wtf is this random dude doing? I turned Swedish for a bit!

Meanwhile in Brazil...I was invited to a wedding by someone I had known for a week, lol.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

2492 deaths today according to COVID Tracking. That's an all time high (no real surprises there unfortunately). COVID tracking uses a different accumulation time window than Worldometer. The increase in deaths is coming from outside New York, which is sort of frightening, since a few of those places haven't even reached their peak in daily cases yet (and peak deaths should lag that). Hopefully New York will start to see noticeable reductions in mortality soon.

The COVID Tracking Project on Twitter

Will be entertaining, in a sort of perverse way, to see IHME adjust to these numbers. I guess in their defense, their erf curve fit has basically maximum uncertainty right now, at peak slope. But the response to this, I think, is going to be to steepen the slope on the downward side (of the Gaussian).