AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
If you mean ( new_positives / new_tests ) then here's the graph for PA:
View attachment 536203
Looks like it peaked around 10 days ago. I'd ignore the recent wild swings.
We don't even know who's being tested, so I think it would be impossible to come up with a good threshold.
Yeah, I guess PA & IL actually don't look too bad. But they don't look great, either. Anyway, here are some of the plots (there are some data issues in some of them (sometimes some negative numbers and such presumably due to data processing), so take them with a grain of salt, though they are pulled from the COVID Tracking site).
Source: Tableau Public
But anyway, here are IL & PA. Compare to NY. Obviously NY is an extreme case, but you definitely want to see that % positive going down. It means (in theory) that you are sucking those infected, contagious people out of the population faster than they can be produced. Another good positive example is Hawaii - that's a sign of an epidemic that is coming under control.
Here are New York & Hawaii:
A couple of other problematic ones: South Dakota & North Dakota are going to crap (South Dakota is worse due to the plant outbreak presumably). North Dakota is REALLY bad the last couple days though compared to their historical results. There were looking ok up until about a week ago but it looks like they have lost control, potentially, unless they can get more testing deployed.
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