One of these things is not like the others...
I had some Youtube clips of Trump saying "We are winning !" all lined up ready to go, but just couldn't bring myself to post them...
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
I had some Youtube clips of Trump saying "We are winning !" all lined up ready to go, but just couldn't bring myself to post them...
This forum wants apocalyptic predictions only. If you would predict a volcano eruption that would kill all living creatures you'd get up/like votes. Can I be your clickbait copy editor
RobStark
Well-Known Member
How about deaths per 1M population.
BTW According to IHME Sweden is on pace for 14,608 deaths which is equivalent to 481k US deaths.
Correct. There was never any money to be made in a coronavirus vaccine, until now of course. Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Lung bypass machines that oxygenate blood have kept 68% of critically ill coronavirus patients alive | Daily Mail Online
As Elon would say - interesting.
As Elon would say - interesting.
Here's a screencap of the counties containing the most deaths as of 04/26:
The usual suspects (high population counties) are in there. How concentrated are the deaths? The Top 20 counties have 61% of the deaths but only make up 12% of the US population.
The usual suspects (high population counties) are in there. How concentrated are the deaths? The Top 20 counties have 61% of the deaths but only make up 12% of the US population.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
What? Quite a few of us are trying very hard to be realistic. Last time we discussed factory reopening here, a few weeks ago, several people thought it would happen May 4th (not me!). It seemed like crazy talk, and it didn’t seem like there was any reason to think it would. But anyway, maybe they will - there were excited news stories about emails to employees this morning, that allegedly were the reason the stock advanced 12% today.
But we really want realism - some sort of reasoned idea for what might be reasonable to expect for reopening, and how it might happen. Then it might be possible to decide what to do with the stock (the stuff that I am treating as short term, anyway). For example, if it’s not actually going to open May 4th, I’d kind of expect the stock to take a temporary dump (not an issue for long term investors).
Predictions:
1) As I said 2-3 weeks ago, I do not think the factory will re-open May 4th. I sold about 20% of what I have today at $798 based on this conviction (it was all short term stuff). If things drop again I’ll probably re-establish that position below about $750. Hard to say; depends on the news I guess.
2) I think May 18th-ish is possible, but it will likely require some sort of localized workforce, or maybe just extensive PCR testing and other screening. I have not heard of any such arrangement being discussed by the state as an option.
3) We will have over 100k deaths in the US by June 1st.
Anyway, rather than saying people want certain things, just be aware we are trying to be realistic. A pandemic is a bit unusual as compared to regular economic cycles of growth and recession, because a pandemic is considerably more predictable than the human emotion and confidence levels which normally have an effect on economic activity. So having good information might actually provide some advantage here.
I the final wash up it will be very interesting to see if air pollution or a history of smoking is a major factor in the likelihood of death.
Lung damage from smoking is obvious, lung damage from decades of exposure to air pollution is less obvious.
The only other reason for more deaths in high population centres, is ease of spread...
It is hard to separate out all the risk factors, but my hunch is air pollution is a contributor, and a contribution we can do something about.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It’s a little tricky.
I think it’s probably pretty likely that dense urban environments have higher R values, but perhaps not by all that much. I’m not sure if it is the biggest factor.
Deaths assuming similar demographics and levels of co-morbidity will be mostly determined by the number of cases, as far as I can tell. I doubt that air pollution, etc., have that much to do with the outcomes. Possibly nutritional deficiencies, but not even sure about that.
I think what is most likely to affect the number of cases is the time of seeding and a little bit of luck in how that first seed spreads. Remember that one week in time leads to a rough quadrupling of cases in some models. So it’s reasonable to think that airports that were hubs for air travel from China and (more so) Europe were the most likely initial seeding locations. So those cities probably started strongest, earliest.
So I think just as a matter of likelihood, the denser counties would have been much more likely to be seeded weeks earlier, which would result in much larger epidemics there.
Another factor (I think more minor) is uncounted deaths in the more rural counties. It is possible that some of the mortality in these locations was more likely to be missed than in cities. But I don’t think that is the primary driver of the difference - I think that the cities tend to have larger outbreaks primarily due to their head start before containment measures.
You can look to relatively rural Georgia as an example of how spread can occur outside a city. This was just a matter of bad luck. Most such outbreaks occurred in the cities.
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I remember when Northwest Airlines was the first to offer smoke-free flights. Other airlines figured Northwest would lose too many passengers and have to add the smoking sections back in. As it turned out, passengers who preferred safe and smoke-free outnumbered the smokers and Northwest's loads grew. Before long, virtually all airlines in the U.S. dropped their smoking sections in order to complete.
If you were given a choice of an airline with an "all passengers and flight attendants wear masks" rule and a traditional airline for a trip this week, which one would you choose?
How do you tell the difference between the sick and the well? What do you about pre-symptomatic and asymptotic spreaders?
As for re-opening, depends on where. In Wuhan, they did. In some places like NYC, that would be reckless. In places that haven't hit their peak, it'd also be reckless.
deonb
Active Member
Are you just purposefully trolling now?
Take the actual New York antibody-based calculated IFR: 22623/2.7m = 0.83%
Multiply by 80% of population infected for an uncontrolled unmitigated epidemic with overshoot: 262.4m
Total: 2.17 million deaths
Their estimates weren't just accurate, they were nostradamic.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
No, the Dumb-Ass Model is my own. It's not fancy enough to be a smart-ass model, but it does okay.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah, it seems to oscillate a bit and usually it has a higher projection than the dumb-ass.
BTW, a 15-day window does not help much.
Yeah, CNN is unfortunately a complete and total joke. Is like flip side of FOX. Both are pretty useless. I wish I could say they were laughable but significant portions of the population have tied themselves to the daily idiocies they spout.
jhm
Well-Known Member
If it works in Sweden, it can work here, right?
Yah, I do not know why Sweden has been praised so often and pointed to as the example the rest of the world failed to follow. They have not been tracking so well and it is JUST TOO EARLY to say where they are going to end up. It seems to be the same old repeated human failure of a complete inability to imagine something different than what they are seeing today.
And Sweden has some large advantages built in, including lower population and household densities, a naturally distancing culture and an educated populace that can take direction well to avoid further transmissions.
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