Coronavirus

[Norbert]

New York State total cases today went above 300,000 (and the US yesterday above 1,000,000).

Remember when it was a big thing that the US as a whole went above 100,000 ?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is today Groundhog Day?

No, it's April 947th.

 

[Daniel in SD]

we're making decisions without reliable data

I always found this headline bizarre. Of course we're making decisions without reliable data, it's the only data we have!
When I'm driving and I see my view is obscured, I slow down, I don't wait until I have reliable data.
Now Ioannidis has released his own data with a positive rate within the false positive rate of the test, completely unethical participant recruitment by a coauthors wife, numerous other issues and he wants us to use his unreliable data to make decisions?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

New York State total cases today went above 300,000 (and the US yesterday above 1,000,000).

Remember when it was a big thing that the US as a whole went above 100,000 ?

In other daily updates, tests are still moderately up (202k, 12% positive which is way down, mostly because of NYC), but unfortunately some of the massive numbers may have been due to some bad accounting over the weekend. So we're only over 200k, so little hope of seeing over 30k cases at this point unless we see a rapid ramp in test volume this week. It also means we're about a factor of 10x from where we need to be to expediently exit this phase.

Significant number of deaths, 2200 (IHME prediction: 1600), but down from a week ago on Tuesday, so we're probably on the descent there, in spite of continuing increases in some states (the reduction in deaths in New York City has been dramatic - faster than I expected, but their case growth has also dropped off steeply - possibly due to partial herd immunity of 20-25% - on that front BTW, note that Long Island incidence went down vs. serology testing a week ago, so there are some wide confidence intervals on those numbers).

Hopefully we'll see a new case peak of over 35k new cases, along with a new testing peak of over 300k tests, sometime this week. That would be very promising. And then the following week maybe we'll get to 600k per day.

 

[Doggydogworld]

This is based on his 10x-20x multiplier (multiply daily cases in the US of ~30k by 10 or 20) that he has always stuck to (I think it's based on his modeling of the doubling time of the outbreak, when it started, etc.). Those numbers put the current outbreak size in the US at about 10 million to 20 million cases, from what I understand. (Would work out to be about a 0.5 to 1% IFR, when deaths are complete.)

I wouldn't say he always stuck to 10-20x, in early March he estimated Washington had ~1100 infections at a time when confirmed cases were ~300 or so. He thought unmitigated doubling time was 6 days back then, subsequent events caused him to reduce that to the 3-4 day range.

Agreed about testing, but I don't see us ever doing a couple million per day unless Dr. Birx's hoped-for saliva test works.

 

[sparcs]

so 2k deaths in the USA today? I think Worldometers resets in 2 hours since it's on GMT.

I guess it's progress if we average with the last two days.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Now Ioannidis has released his own data with a positive rate within the false positive rate of the test,

This is my impression of what the authors of that study were thinking of doing, before they said, "f**k it, we won't worry about the uncertainty!" (credit: xkcd)

 

[dfwatt]

I always found this headline bizarre. Of course we're making decisions without reliable data, it's the only data we have!
When I'm driving and I see my view is obscured, I slow down, I don't wait until I have reliable data.
Now Ioannidis has released his own data with a positive rate within the false positive rate of the test, completely unethical participant recruitment by a coauthors wife, numerous other issues and he wants us to use his unreliable data to make decisions?

It's shocking to me because I used to respect him. He wrote some pretty good meta-analyses on how big Pharma had cooked the efficacy data on antidepressants. Now he's cooking his own data. I guess he knows how to do it.

 

[jbcarioca]

It looks like an error but it isn't. JHU piles the cases and deaths of those counties (FIPS: 36005, 36047, 36081, and 36085) into New York County (FIPS: 36061). I don't know why. More strange is that they include those counties in their CSV files with zeroes for everything.

Anyway, I account for that in my code when it comes to calculating county populations, rates, population densities, etc.

The error was in describing as 'county' data which was a mixture of city and county. Clearly the attempt was to minimize the dominance of NYC in national COVID-19 cases. Even worldwide NYC stands high among countries, for that matter. The only way the US looks good is in absolute number of tests. Otherwise the abysmal performance of US response is astonishing. The whole world is horrified by the US state of affairs but cannot do anything about it at all.

Sorry for the editorial. The state of affairs would be glaringly obvious were data to be shown for hospital staff, nursing homes and emergency responders. Each had a shocking lack of PPE. These three are the common features of Wuhan, Bergamo, Madrid, NYC and many other cities. In short, when cases exceed system capacity the results terrify. In each case case management and case epidemiology (contact tracking, testing and treatment) was astoundingly poor or non-existent.

The US Federal government is still doing politics, not health. Despite some good talent even people like Birx and Fauci rarely emphasize casework, which must be a national project if it is to be successful.

At county level all that really can be done is limited testing and treatment.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I wouldn't say he always stuck to 10-20x, in early March he estimated Washington had ~1100 infections at a time when confirmed cases were ~300 or so. He thought unmitigated doubling time was 6 days back then, subsequent events caused him to reduce that to the 3-4 day range.

Kind of splitting hairs here, but yes he has reduced his doubling time.

On March 2nd, he estimated about 600 cases in Seattle.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

At that time, there were 27 identified cases (obviously there are lags to deal with here):

9 Coronavirus Deaths Now Reported In Washington State

But anyway, yeah, he's probably gradually increased his undetected ratio over time.

 

[ZeApelido]

Yeah, Sweden is really killing it.

 

[Norbert]

Yeah, Sweden is really killing it.

View attachment 536868

Looks like Sweden's number of "cases" is defined by their test capacity.

 

[sparcs]

so 2k deaths in the USA today? I think Worldometers resets in 2 hours since it's on GMT.

I guess it's progress if we average with the last two days.

Worldometers is currently showing 2,456 deaths in the USA for today. My 2k guess was way off. Jumped sizably in 2 hours.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Worldometers is currently showing 2,429 deaths in the USA for today. My 2k guess was way off. Jumped sizably in 2 hours.

The accumulation intervals are different for COVID Tracking and Worldometer. This relatively large difference suggests that tomorrow could be a larger day for COVID Tracking than today - but not surprisingly, it depends on the numbers tomorrow morning. The lag from the weekend can be pretty long.

 

[eevee-fan]

Updated Apr 27

View attachment 536633
The coronavirus crisis is creating unusual allegiances as Australia fights to make it to the other side - ABC News

point to make, Japan's population is about 22x the size of Singapore's.
yet the chart treats them as similar.

 

[Yuri_G]

Have people seen this Covid symptom tracker app? Could help give more data on how fast the virus is spreading and what states are under-tested.

US COVID Symptom Tracker Data by State

 

[sparcs]

Trump says US will be able to run 5 million coronavirus tests per day 'very soon,' despite shortages across states

What has this guy been smoking? We spent most of April around 150k per day and somehow we are going to do 30 times that "very soon"?

Fauci was praying for around 500k per day within the next several weeks and we are supposed to go 10 times that number?

 

[eevee-fan]

Trump says US will be able to run 5 million coronavirus tests per day 'very soon,' despite shortages across states

What has this guy been smoking? We spent most of April around 150k per day or less and somehow we are going to do 30 times that "very soon"?

If you take 100k test kit, run with it, hand it off to next person... do that 50x per test kit per day, basically a relay race... you technically can run 5 million tests per day. Trump is trolling the media again. haha

 

[eevee-fan]

Have people seen this Covid symptom tracker app? Could help give more data on how fast the virus is spreading and what states are under-tested.

US COVID Symptom Tracker Data by State

Las Vegas mayor has a solution... if 100% of the people catch the virus, then you don't need testing. #CONTROLGROUP

 

[sparcs]

If you take 100k test kit, run with it, hand it off to next person... do that 50x per test kit per day, basically a relay race... you technically can run 5 million tests per day. Trump is trolling the media again. haha

the american public would have to be pretty stupid at this point to buy any of this garbage. We are back to disinfectant levels of idiocy again.