Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

So less than half the population? And most of those probably account for many of the other issues listed too (hypertension, diabetes...etc.). Seems to me like obesity causes a lot more deaths and strain in the health care system that Covid-19 and should probably be a main focus going forward, but since it isn’t contagious, we mostly don’t give it a second thought. But this is a whole other can of worms.....

All of this to say that there is a significant portion of the population which is young and fit enough to return to work. They should be allowed to do so immediately.

The majority of the population has not lost their jobs. So your plan is to train younger people to do all the jobs currently being done by people in higher risk groups? Then those higher risk groups would somehow be able to isolate themselves while lower risk groups get herd immunity? What about all the people in multi-generational households or other households with members in high risk groups? It sounds like your plan would actually result in fewer people working than the situation right now.

 

[dfwatt]

Goalposts moved!

Do we really need to delve into a debate on the merits of per capita measurements, when incidence in all the countries in question is below 10%, outbreaks tend to occur in clusters, and we have massive density differences as compared to other countries?

Try comparing NY, NJ, CT, and MA to the top 10 countries.

To me, success looks like defeating the virus. That's what real Americans would do.


In other news, my wife just showed me the tweets from Elon that she saw (which I captured above), and she was very upset (picture attached). She says she doesn't want to support anyone like that. So, she's not going to be getting a Model Y - she'll stick with her Spark EV. Probably better for the environment anyway. She asked (I'm not kidding), "Do you talk about THAT in your forum?" Proudly, I said yes, I had compared the tweets to a stupidity contest with Donald Trump (which to my surprise received a bunch of disagrees, which I find to be inexplicable, because it's not a stretch at all to say that...just the unfortunate truth).

Real consequences, folks.

View attachment 537173

See if you can convince her that the model Y is not a vote for Elon it's just a vote for a sustainable transportation.

 

[ZachF]

What demo are you going to protect ?
- Above 60
- BMI > 25 (or > 30 or > 40) ?
- Hypertension
- Hyperlipidemia
- Diabetes
- Respiratory problems
- Cancer survivors
- Any other immune issues

How many does that leave ?

We should also seriously consider what happens when
- Someone in the office / restaurant etc is tested positive. Are we going to shut it down for a day and deep clean ? How about a large building - will you shut it down and deep clean ? Ask everyone who may have been in contact (including using rest rooms / elevators) self-quarantine for 14 days ?
- Someone in the office gets seriously ill / dies. How likely are others to feel ok to keep going to office ? How about someone who works in a restaurant dies ?

When the economy "opens" - its going to be chaotic. People are going to act unpredictably depending on news and events beyond the control of individual businesses.

What will Tesla do - for eg - if here is an outbreak of Covid in the factory. Shut it down for a week - what if the county orders them to close for a week ?

Let no one think once the economy "opens" it will be business as usual.

Age is by far the single biggest risk factor. Half the deaths come from people over 80, and ~80% for people over 65 (ie people generally already retired).

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Age is by far the single biggest risk factor. Half the deaths come from people over 80, and ~80% for people over 65 (ie people generally already retired).

Exactly this. @Daniel in SD @EVNow @canoemore

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah, and nearly 2 months later we still don't have more CV deaths than 2018 flu season. That's the point.

Bullshit
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

CDC estimates are for 34,157 deaths by all ages for the 2018-2019 influenza season.

We're WAY past that now and are looking at MULTIPLES of that number soon.

 

[UCF3]

How many employees at the Shanghai factory have died of Coronavirus since Tesla reopened a month ago? Seems like Tesla knows how to reopen a factory properly.

 

[UCF3]

Bullshit
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

CDC estimates are for 34,157 deaths by all ages for the 2018-2019 influenza season.

We're WAY past that now and are looking at MULTIPLES of that number soon.

He’s referring to 2017-2018 when it was over 60k

 

[bkp_duke]

Kind of curious why no one thought this article was important enough to post here.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says Gilead’s remdesivir will set a new ‘standard of care’ for coronavirus treatment

I said from the get go, this one had more promise than any of the other potential therapies.

Sadly, this one is really just mediocre in efficacy, based on data to date. But we'll take what we can get at this point.

EDIT - I should clarify that this kind of efficacy is pretty typical for antivirals. Historically, they are not as effective as antibiotics are against bacteria.

 

[EinSV]

Kind of curious why no one thought this article was important enough to post here.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says Gilead’s remdesivir will set a new ‘standard of care’ for coronavirus treatment

A couple positive developments were also in the news on vaccines:

Moderna has applied to conduct Phase II clinical trials for its mRNA vaccine this summer. If successful, they hope to enter Phase III clinical trials in the fall. Moderna's coronavirus vaccine candidate advances to next stage of testing

Oxford says their vaccine may be ready as early as September. 6000 people are already enrolled in clinical trials and a few million doses are expected to be ready by September in case the vaccine proves effective. In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead

 

[Daniel in SD]

How many employees at the Shanghai factory have died of Coronavirus since Tesla reopened a month ago? Seems like Tesla knows how to reopen a factory properly.

LOL. When the East Bay daily new case count gets down to the level of Shanghai I don't think anyone would argue against reopening the factory.

 

[sparcs]

How many employees at the Shanghai factory have died of Coronavirus since Tesla reopened a month ago? Seems like Tesla knows how to reopen a factory properly.

It never got to the point where Tesla had to manage an outbreak due China's response to the virus. China quarantined all workers before they were able to come back to that area of China.

We don't have that kind of response in the USA. We can't even ramp testing or get adequate enough supplies of PPE....

 

[bkp_duke]

So less than half the population? And most of those probably account for many of the other issues listed too (hypertension, diabetes...etc.). Seems to me like obesity causes a lot more deaths and strain in the health care system that Covid-19 and should probably be a main focus going forward, but since it isn’t contagious, we mostly don’t give it a second thought. But this is a whole other can of worms.....

All of this to say that there is a significant portion of the population which is young and fit enough to return to work. They should be allowed to do so immediately.

You are comparing an acute infectious disease to a chronic medical complication.

That's like comparing an orange to a . . . . cow.

Your analogy is invalid.

We've been spending like mad on obesity for over a decade. People don't want to give up their junk food and get off their assess.
Economic Costs of Obesity | Healthy Communities for a Healthy Future

Also, @EVNow was stating that CUMULATIVELY between all the listed problems, it makes a majority of people at increased risk if they get COVID-19.

He's spot on with that analysis. We're overall a VERY unhealthy country, by the numbers.

 

[Singer3000]

See if you can convince her that the model Y is not a vote for Elon it's just a vote for a sustainable transportation.

This anecdote is not unique. Most of my friends are environmentally conscience and relatively affluent but don’t suffer fools. Musk seems to most of them as as “unhinged”, “an egotist”, “intensely dislikable” and most cuttingly of all: “more Thanos than Captain Planet”. These are people that thought of him as a hero not so long ago.

I don’t know how these outbursts go down in the US but outside, anecdotally they are tarnishing Musk and Tesla’s brand, perhaps irreversibly. Pedo-gate I could get most of them to forget about. Funding Secured and 500k Cars This Year lost a lot of them (particularly those that are trained lawyers) but some stayed on board when I got them to think about the possible Saudi hostile takeover angle. But Musk’s self serving and deliberately inflammatory statements on cv-19 are another level and will not be easily forgotten or forgiven. A crying shame, he should learn when to stay humble and keep his mouth shut on things he has an imperfect understanding of.

I remain a shareholder (albeit at a much reduced level than in Feb) but for the first time I’m starting to think a Musk exit from Tesla would be met by me with a shrug and perhaps a buy order. Which makes me more than a little sad.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Age is by far the single biggest risk factor. Half the deaths come from people over 80, and ~80% for people over 65 (ie people generally already retired).

Not entirely true. Older people are dying at a higher rate because they have a higher likelyhood of having one or more co-morbidities.

CDC sez:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
"...older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions might be at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19."

"Conditions and Other Risk Factors
Asthma
Chronic lung disease
Diabetes
Serious heart conditions
Chronic kidney disease being treated with dialysis
Severe obesity
People aged 65 years and older
People in nursing homes or long-term care facilities
Immunocompromised
Liver disease"

How Many Adults Are at Risk of Serious Illness If Infected with Coronavirus? Updated Data

"Key Findings

• About four in ten adults (37.6%) ages 18 and older in the U.S. (92.6 million people) have a higher risk of developing serious illness if they become infected with coronavirus, due to their older age (65 and older) or health condition (Figure 1; Table 1).
• Just over half of those at higher risk of developing a serious illness are ages 65 and older (55.2% or 51.1 million adults); however, the remaining 41.4 million adults ages 18-64 are at risk due to an underlying medical condition.
• The share of adults ages 18 and older who have a higher risk of developing a more serious illness varies across the country, ranging from 49.3 percent (West Virginia) to 30 percent (Utah).
• In some of the states with the highest number of reported coronavirus cases thus far, the share of adults at high risk of serious illness if infected is relatively high: Louisiana and Florida (at 42.1 percent, each) and Michigan (41.2 percent).
• An estimated 5.1 million adults who are at higher risk of getting a serious illness if they become infected with coronavirus are uninsured."

 

[dfwatt]

This anecdote is not unique. Most of my friends are environmentally conscience and relatively affluent but don’t suffer fools. Musk seems to most of them as as “unhinged”, “an egotist”, “intensely dislikable” and most cuttingly of all: “more Thanos than Captain Planet”. These are people that thought of him as a hero not so long ago.

I don’t know how these outbursts go down in the US but outside, anecdotally they are tarnishing Musk and Tesla’s brand, perhaps irreversibly. Pedo-gate I could get most of them to forget about. Funding Secured and 500k Cars This Year lost a lot of them (particularly those that are trained lawyers) but some stayed on board when I got them to think about the possible Saudi hostile takeover angle. But Musk’s self serving and deliberately inflammatory statements on cv-19 are another level and will not be easily forgotten or forgiven. A crying shame, he should learn when to stay humble and keep his mouth shut on things he has an imperfect understanding of.

I remain a shareholder (albeit at a much reduced level than in Feb) but for the first time I’m starting to think a Musk exit from Tesla would be met by me with a shrug and perhaps a buy order. Which makes me more than a little sad.

I have to confess that I share a lot of your concerns about Elon who was originally something of an entrepreneurial good guy/hero for me. I think he's still fundamentally a decent guy but there are some really troubling holes in his judgment. Not just this whole Fiasco but his association with Peter Thiel was very disturbing to me. It's not clear what happened to their relationship and whether there was a falling-out but Peter is arguably a crypto-fascist and a leading developer of the technology that will support surveillance totalitarianism. He's also a hard right alt right kind of guy, and he created a culture at PayPal that was really kind of sociopathic in terms of its incredible disregard for customers who were not rich and powerful. Usually just one encounter with customer service at PayPal was enough to make you convinced that whoever set up the basic structures and rules was in fact somewhat sociopathic.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Kind of curious why no one thought this article was important enough to post here.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says Gilead’s remdesivir will set a new ‘standard of care’ for coronavirus treatment

I didn't want to upset the HCQ worshippers....

Fauci:
"...said a second wave of infections is “inevitable” in the United States,

Second wave? I'm not convinced the first wave will end in any meaningful way.

 

[dhanson865]

(LEAD) Recovered virus patients retest positive due to 'dead' virus fragments: experts | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, April 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korean health experts said Wednesday that recovered coronavirus patients may have tested positive again due to traces of virus fragments that have been inactivated.

As of Tuesday, a total of 277 people who recovered from COVID-19 have retested positive here, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).

The country's central clinical committee for emerging disease control said there was no live virus present in such cases, positively refuting theories like the virus being reactivated or reinfection.

They said that apparent reinfection cases came because fragments of the virus remained in their bodies and showed up in test kits.

 

[N5329K]

Most of my friends are environmentally conscience and relatively affluent but don’t suffer fools. Musk seems to most of them as as “unhinged”, “an egotist”, “intensely dislikable” and most cuttingly of all: “more Thanos than Captain Planet”. These are people that thought of him as a hero not so long ago.

Yes, but we still have a long way to go before herd immunity kicks in to limit self-inflicted damage from the Elon Distortion Field.
Robin

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

How many employees at the Shanghai factory have died of Coronavirus since Tesla reopened a month ago? Seems like Tesla knows how to reopen a factory properly.

daily new case count gets down to the level of Shanghai I don't think anyone would argue against reopening the factory.

I can confirm that I would be ok with reopening the factory when the case level in East Bay gets down to the Shanghai level. I'd even be open to a cautious reopening before that, but depends on what it looks like!

The good news is it doesn't seem to matter whether the US factory ever opens. They can just make Model 3 and Model Y in China, and all the other places that actually are taking steps to eliminate the virus. Who would have thought that could be a winning strategy? Not so good for all of us in the US though. A shame.

 

[NikolaACDC]

United Kingdom Coronavirus: 165,221 Cases and 26,097 Deaths - Worldometer

Big jump in UK death numbers today because:

"4076 new cases and 4419 new deaths in the United Kingdom "Public Health England (PHE) has developed a new method of reporting daily COVID-19 deaths, to give a more complete number of those who have died from the virus. For the first time from today, Wednesday 29 April 2020, the government’s daily figure will include deaths that have occurred in all settings where there has been a positive COVID-19 test, including hospitals, care homes and the wider community. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales already report out-of-hospital deaths. Today’s figures have been revised retrospectively by PHE since the first death on 2 March 2020 to include additional data sources. This will bring the total number of deaths in the UK to 26,097 from 2 March until 28 April, including 765 deaths reported in the 24 hours to 5 pm on 28 April [...]""