So how are things over there in Trollville?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
So how are things over there in Trollville?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I feel bad for the people I have on ignore.
@AlanSubie4Life your claim the reddit poster supports your convoluted and misleading argument re the Geneva study is completely wrong.
In fact your entire argument is completely wrong.
That poster went out of his way to clarify that he wasn't calculating IFR. He even said he would not use his estimate to calculate an IFR.
Instead, he was trying to estimate how much IFR would change if more older people were infected:
IFR is the fatality rate in an infected population. It can be lower or higher depending on whether more vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected. You know that, so stop confusing the issue.
You also really should stop with the personal attacks. It's really old. They're also against forum rules (although the mods are off duty).
It's also a sign of a weak argument, as in this case.
You'd be better off spending time more time vetting your own posts, frankly.
Also, it's pretty obvious that IFR will vary significantly from area to area, depending on a whole host of factors that may include age, poverty, race, pollution, health care system and treatment protocols, initial viral load, and other factors that may never be fully understood.
Get over it.
In fact your entire argument is completely wrong.
That poster went out of his way to clarify that he wasn't calculating IFR. He even said he would not use his estimate to calculate an IFR.
Instead, he was trying to estimate how much IFR would change if more older people were infected:
"I would not put too much stock in that estimate/use it to inform an IFR estimate ... I just wanted to do some crude calculations on how much population-level IFR can change if younger people are being disproportionately infected compared to if infections occur evenly across the population regardless of age." Repeated seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a population-based sample from Geneva, Switzerland : COVID19
You also really should stop with the personal attacks. It's really old. They're also against forum rules (although the mods are off duty).
It's also a sign of a weak argument, as in this case.
You'd be better off spending time more time vetting your own posts, frankly.
Also, it's pretty obvious that IFR will vary significantly from area to area, depending on a whole host of factors that may include age, poverty, race, pollution, health care system and treatment protocols, initial viral load, and other factors that may never be fully understood.
Get over it.
Last edited:
You're posting links to people claiming that the pandemic was planned in order to force Mass vaccination on people? Is that the kind of crap you want to be associated with? Have you completely lost your mind? Do you believe that there's a shred of evidence that that's true? Because if you do you have really exposed yourself. Vaccinations and the associated Improvement in hygiene and the subsequent reduction of chronic pathogen infection is responsible for the greatest fraction of longevity and healthspan improvements of any single Factor. If you don't know that, you don't know anything.
PS YouTube removed this because unlike Facebook they will not support psychotic anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. It has nothing to do with their support for the medical industrial complex. If you don't understand these things then you really are a member of the Earth is flat Club.
Last edited:
So disappointed in Elon right now. On the JR show he is going on and on about extra Covid deaths and over reporting. He is getting it all wrong and ignoring the numbers. YES, there are going to be people with stage 3 cancer dying of Covid. They could be a month away from death or two years. We don't know. It does not matter. It is a Covid death. And that is not going to be that many people. He is ignoring all of the 'excess deaths' above and beyond the reported Covid deaths.
He is pushing the conspiracy theories.
He is pushing the conspiracy theories.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I have not made any ad hominem attacks. I am referring to your repeated actions, not you.
That is correct. I have never claimed otherwise - I made it clear that I was extrapolating to a uniform attack rate with my "IFR".
I think I made it very clear what I was saying when I calculated my numbers! Your 0.49% number (which is correct as an actual IFR for that particular population affected, and I'm sorry I confused that issue) was presented without the extremely important piece of information from the study:
"while significantly lower seroprevalence was observed among those 50 and older (3.7%, 95% CI 0.99-6.0, p=0.0008)."
You quoted one piece of information from the study, while not providing the relevant context. It's really, really important to understand that the older population was under-represented in the attacked population. Otherwise we get multiple posts following up with confusion about why the number isn't closer to the 1% that we would "expect" (based on the preponderance of the evidence assuming fairly uniform attack rate)!
Of COURSE a lower attack rate may result in lower fatality rates - that's a core effort we are making in this country and elsewhere - to protect those over 50 years old, who are very much at risk.
I'm just looking to clean up the presentation of information here, so that everyone can quickly get the most accurate information possible without having to dig around too much.
It's disingenuous to say that the IFR is 0.49% if you don't also mention that this assumes that you will be somewhat successful in keeping the disease out of the elderly population.
Last edited:
CLK350
Member
Looked up the movie link, that's probably the video YouTube censored. Not sure what to make of it
Plandemic Movie
I am catching up with the discussion here without having read all the preceding posts. For those interested, I think that the best reporting has been (and still is) from Pueyo's Medium series of articles:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
He's not an epidemiologist or a doctor, just someone smart enough with reasoning and numbers - who first raised the alarm on Mar 10, with a convincing analysis that does NOT require any advanced statistical or medical knowledge.
Regarding the other aspect of COVID-19 aka C19, and its possible cures /treatments/ vaccines there is a lot of controversy/ discussion going on.
HOWEVER what really surprises me (or maybe it shouldn't) is that nobody seems to be addressing the elephant in the room. Since the best cure also should involve the best prevention, and we know C19 targets people with defective immune systems, why aren't we simply addressing HOW TO IMPROVE everyone's immune system? Even simply taking Vit C in the proper way (much higher doses than normal) has been proven to save patients in Wuhan and elsewhere*. Not much being said about it, and when NY doctors used Vit C they only used non therapeutic doses, just enough to help whatever other treatment they were providing.
It seems so obvious: help people become healthier - for instance everybody knows that eating sugary foods (most canned goods have some sort of sweetener added, worst being HFS, high fructose sugar), and most food additives lower one's immune system, as well as lack of exercise, insufficient Vit D, C and K etc. But, no, it seems we all just want a miracle vaccine or drug.
Because some folks are homeless and don't have the means to eat and live healthily, should we also just leave them to their fate? I think (true) Christians (JC, and normally decent human beings ) believe otherwise.
Last edited:
So disappointed in Elon right now. On the JR show he is going on and on about extra Covid deaths and over reporting. He is getting it all wrong and ignoring the numbers. YES, there are going to be people with stage 3 cancer dying of Covid. They could be a month away from death or two years. We don't know. It does not matter. It is a Covid death. And that is not going to be that many people. He is ignoring all of the 'excess deaths' above and beyond the reported Covid deaths.
He is pushing the conspiracy theories.
Yes it's very sad to see Elon expose himself in this way. I had my concerns already because of his association with Peter Thiel and Ellison, both of whom are pretty far right (like just slightly to the left of Ivan the Terrible). But for someone who has spent his whole life in a scientific and Technical field to which he has made major contributions and Innovations, to abandon the science in such a basic way and to push far-right libertarian conspiracy theories is profoundly disappointing..
Yeah... It might even have some valid points buried among all the (likely wrong) conspiracy theories.
It has become a very "viral" video and will probably still keep cropping up as they release move parts of that "movie".
Just a warning: do lots of fact checking on anything you see in their clips as it is trying to play on people's fears and overactive imaginations.
The anti-vaxx agenda of 'The Plandemic'
I wish Fauci hadn't said in a 2017 lecture that there will be a surprise pandemic during this administration. Even played out of context it sounds chilling and feeds into more conspiracy theories.
In counterpoint to the trollery and dumbf*ckery from a few folks here, a smart, motivated (and outspoken person) who may actually save our collective cookies. She's part of the global conspiracy for sure!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...ce=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most#comments-wrapper
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...ce=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most#comments-wrapper
That's completely false:
If you want to make a point, make it. But cut the crap.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
As I said, I made clear what I was doing when I was calculating my "IFR." There was no hiding what I was doing.
My point is clear. I have nothing to hide here.
If you want to debate that you were correct about the definition of IFR - there is no debate - you were right: You are correct about that, and I incorrectly calculated it. But I made it very clear WHY I was calculating it that way.
Specifically:
What I should have said is: A uniform attack rate seems reasonable if you're trying to assess risk. Which is pretty clearly what we're trying to do.
I was wrong that it should be used when calculating an IFR. Also, I said "it seems reasonable, as far as I am concerned"...not that it "should be".
You can disagree all you want, but if you read my prior posts on this topic, there really is no ambiguity. Look at your original post and see whether anyone can reasonably assess risk based on that post.
Can they? Please answer that specific question: Can anyone reasonably assess risk based on your original post?
Last edited:
I have to confess it concerns me that you are kind of normalizing what is really a crazy point of view. The anti-vaccination movement is at its core anti-science, conspiratorial, and frankly rabid to the point of psychotic. To take Anthony Fauci's statement as potential evidence of a deep state conspiracy is also crazy. If you don't call out those kinds of inferences as such you are in a sense implicitly validating the paranoid logic of that 'movement'. Are you sure you want to go there?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I guess at some point we have to also look at an individual's predictions and see how they pan out.
Looks like the closest guess was very likely 16.7% (at that time), unfortunately.
Last edited:
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I don't know where (s)he's getting that from, but in Sweden on the 28th of April 45,6% of deaths from covid-19 occurred in nursing homes. That's 948 deaths out of a total of 2075 deaths nationwide.
Source (in Swedish): Krav på kommission om döda på äldreboenden
Nice. And of course no argument that the old and particularly the chronically ill old are terribly at risk. Unfortunately off the point because we were talking about cases not deaths.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Similar threads
