Coronavirus

[SDRick]

Oh and USA we have accurate data till week 16, and we have Total Mortality instead of Excess Mortality like in Euromomo (Total is more accurate, since on excess mortality a late peak like this one gets more deaths ):

Week 40 to week 16 ( after peak number of total mortality, per CDC )

2019/2020: 1.676M/328M:510death/100.000 population
2017/2018: 1.657M/327M:506death/100.000 population
2014/2015: 1.619M/320M:505 death/100.000 population

Till week 20 you'll see at a worst case scenario the difference between 2019/2020 and 2017/2018 grow from 4 to 8. Any of the moron-sprayers want to bet? That would mean an increase of 1.5% in total mortality adjusted for population during this season in the USA, when comparing to 2017/2018 btw

Later im happy to compare with all the moron sprayers the overall impact in short and long term deaths for all the cardiovascular patients that were not attended to, and to all the cancers that were not detected, and to all the other diseases that were not assisted, thanks to all the fear-spreading.

You sir, are setting yourself up for a fully soaked big ass whoop'in of moron spray.


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[RobStark]

Sorry if already posted

Navajo Nation passes NYC for COVID-19 rate

13.2% of Navajo Nation tested for COVID-19 almost double that of New York State at 7%.

 

[GFernandes]

You sir, are setting yourself up for a fully soaked big ass whoop'in of moron spray.


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Cant handle information? Or you think more than 1.5% of people will die than usually would compared to 2017/2018?

 

[dfwatt]

Wasn't that dead people are allowed to vote in Florida?

It was that Hillary personally supervised the busing of millions of people from Massachusetts into New Hampshire and other Northeast states so they could vote twice. Millions. Possibly billions.

 

[madodel]

It was that Hillary personally supervised the busing of millions of people from Massachusetts into New Hampshire and other Northeast states so they could vote twice. Millions. Possibly billions.

Should have bussed them to PA and MI. I live in an area of Pennsylvania with a huge number of NYC and NJ commuters, many of who are still registered in NY or NJ and won't register in PA. NY and NJ doesn't need Democratic votes but people apparently have jobs (or in some cases rent controlled apartments) where they have to pretend they live in NY or NJ.

 

[Norbert]

I was curious if anyone had considered the Singapore data when throwing out these fatality rate numbers. Based on the ministry of health data they show the following:

294,414 Total swabs tested
191,260 Unique persons swabbed
17,672 Active cases
12,117 Discharged cases
23 Deaths

Singapore MOH

If you only look at discharged cases and deaths you get a fatality rate of 0.19%. Considering they have tested quite broadly and counted many asymptomatic cases that are likely missed in other countries, why would this not be a better example for fatality rate than most other places that have large outbreaks and limited testing?

I apologize in advance if this has been discussed already but this is a long thread with a lot of condescending comments and political snark that I really don't want to have to sift through.

23 is a very small number in absolute terms, too much depends on coincidences, such as risk groups not having been exposed yet, atypical age group distribution, or sometimes these places are just at the beginning of a curve. For places with small death numbers, we have seen all kinds of numbers all over the place. In Singapore, for example, I think the outbreak was mostly among a specific group of people. Usually one has to spend a few hours figuring out what happened and finds that the numbers would have to be adjusted in some way to be relevant, and then the picture is either very different, or very dependent on information that isn't available.

 

[SageBrush]

Sorry if already posted

Navajo Nation passes NYC for COVID-19 rate

13.2% of Navajo Nation tested for COVID-19 almost double that of New York State at 7%.

Testing, shmesting.

Sadder is that the Navajo nation has the same population adjusted mortality as NYS even though Covid-19 came to NYS quite a bit earlier.

That would be alcohol and liver disease

 

[SageBrush]

U.S. Could Have Saved 36,000 Lives If Social Distancing Started 1 Week Earlier: Study

This article talks about a paper written by Columbia and the NIH regarding SAH timing. If is very informative and is meant to be a warning to trumpers.

 

[eevee-fan]

Recent articles talk about how Sweden will not reach herd immunity by May. Doesn't that actually show that either being more cautious is slowing the spread or that the transmittability of the virus is significantly reduced with each additional infecfed. Possibly the former case?

 

[golfcart]

Singapore's first case was January 23rd, about the same time as South Korea and the US. If you account for lags, Singapore's IFR was around 1% the first couple months. For example, they had 1000 confirmed cases on April 1, and 10 death a couple weeks later. They did extensive testing and contact tracing, and appeared to have things under control with only 226 cases and zero deaths in mid-March.

But it seems they forgot to test their 1m+ guest workers (aka imported foreign labor). And since these workers don't usually get sick leave, they didn't exactly volunteer to be tested and quarantined. So the outbreak among these workers spread undetected, especially in communal-style dorms where they sleep in adjacent bunks.

Singapore locked the dorms down in early April, basically creating giant cruise ships, and finally got serious about testing them. By mid-April they were finding 1000 cases per day among guest workers vs. just a few among Singapore citizens. These guest workers are generally young, hard-working and healthy, so very few will die.

That does make it a bit more interesting, I’d be curious to see their data broken down by age but I’ll have to take your word that they are mostly young guest workers because I don’t see age data on their ministry of health page.

Maybe it’s the reverse bias of all these cities with big nursing home outbreaks that make things look really bad.

 

[SageBrush]

Recent articles talk about how Sweden will not reach herd immunity by May. Doesn't that actually show that either being more cautious is slowing the spread or that the transmittability of the virus is significantly reduced with each additional infectfed. Possibly the former case?

Definitely the former, given their low seroprevalence

 

[SMAlset]

Off topic, but wills are a misery.

What you really want to do is have designated beneficiaries outside of probate.

My mom was able to set up things that way after my dad died. They both had a will since from when I was a kid. She still has a will (remember there are still personal possessions to be disposed of) but has beneficiaries on all accounts and the home’s deed was already filed to pass to me upon her death. Her attorney set up so hopefully there won’t need to be a lengthy probate. Hopefully all that is still years off. Our personal situation is way more complicated.

Interesting to hear from someone that their lawyer’s office has been busy setting up estate plans. Had wondered if that would be one “essential” business that would be busy now. As devastating losing family suddenly through this or any other way is, the economic and legal fallout is something I don’t think most people have any idea what to expect unless they have already gone through this before.

 

[SageBrush]

My mom was able to set up things that way after my dad died. They both had a will since from when I was a kid. She still has a will (remember there are still personal possessions to be disposed of) but has beneficiaries on all accounts and the home’s deed was already filed to pass to me upon her death. Her attorney set up so hopefully there won’t need to be a lengthy probate. Hopefully all that is still years off. Our personal situation is way more complicated.

Probate is for wills and estates without a will
Designated beneficiaries are outside of probate. That is the point.

 

[SVMike]

How about duct tape instead of mask?
Would keep him safe from SARS-CoV-2

Brilliant !!

How can you possibly say that without first seeing a peer reviewed study that proves this works?

 

[FoverM]

Here's a chart for GA on 05/21 (data from covidtracking.com):

No obvious impact from the reopening on 05/01 so far. There's a little uptick at the end but we'll need to wait a week to see if it's the start of something or just noise.

One other note, around 04/22 there's a significant drop in positivity. Some of that is natural and some could be due to GA including antibody test results in their data around that time. Local news says the total was around 55K tests (total is 400K).

 

[SMAlset]

Sorry if already posted

Navajo Nation passes NYC for COVID-19 rate

13.2% of Navajo Nation tested for COVID-19 almost double that of New York State at 7%.

That’s really sad to hear. I know one tribe was trying to close down road access going through their land to try to contain people bringing it into their population. State wasn’t agreeing but haven’t seen anything since then.

 

[SVMike]

I believe I mentioned before that I'm putting all my assets into Big Citrus. Can't trust pharmaceuticals.

That investment is going to turn out to be a lemon.

 

[SMAlset]

Probate is for wills and estates without a will
Designated beneficiaries are outside of probate. That is the point.

I‘m pretty sure I was told at the time by her attorney that if all the paperwork was done, I’d still have to apply to the probate judge to wrap up her estate so there would still be some legal things to take care of and the value amount was important should she have forgotten to have designated a beneficiary. She went to the attorney after my dad died so this is something I still haven’t had to experience. I wouldn’t be surprised if each State had different requirements.

 

[FoverM]

Here's a chart for FL on 05/21 (data from covidtracking.com):

Possible uptick at the end ... but the number of daily test results has significantly increased (from around 20K to over 40K starting on 05/19).

 

[SageBrush]

I‘m pretty sure I was told at the time by her attorney that if all the paperwork was done, I’d still have to apply to the probate judge to wrap up her estate so there would still be some legal things to take care of and the value amount was important should she have forgotten to have designated a beneficiary. She went to the attorney after my dad died so this is something I still haven’t had to experience. I wouldn’t be surprised if each State had different requirements.

There are oodles of things that do not have a designated beneficiary and they get handled in probate, hopefully via a will. My point is that the less that is handled in probate, the better.