Coronavirus

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ Realize that young people getting infected will eventually come home to elders, even if the latter are not bar hopping.

And that is key. If you are elderly and especially so if you're also overweight/smoking/have high blood pressure -- it's very important to minimize the risk of getting infected...

Hopefully most of these people are currently retired and should also be able to physically isolate themselves -- as in keeping a distance of at least three meters to all people around them at all times...

 

[sandygott]

You cannot possibly be a physician and spreading this kind of disinformation. The notion that masks are not 100% effective and have some downsides is not a basis for rejecting what has been a fundamental component of effective Public Health strategy in every single country that has gotten covid-19 under control. The epidemiology on this point is unambiguous. To suggest that masks are not a perfect solution is one thing, to suggest that there are better Alternatives - namely not wearing a mask and exposing yourself as well as spreading whatever pathogen you might be carrying and that this is somehow a better alternative - is negligent, anti-scientific, and not simply libertarian nonsense but just plain irresponsible.

View attachment 556402

Isn't the recommendation for masks AND social distancing? That way there is much less chance any virus will reach you and what does should be an insignificant dose.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Wait a few weeks. Remember that there is a ~ 20 day lag between cases and mortality.

Most countries have had the good sense not start a "second wave" (so far) but if you look at Iran that's exactly what you see. Deaths were flat for four weeks after the case trough before they started rising again.

 

[linux-works]

o There are relatively few who will be killed by this disease compared to those who will suffer economically.

gotcha.

"die for the dow".

no lives matter - only "the economy"

its already such a tired meme, at this point.

we "get" that you guys want people to die for the economic gain of the elite. we get that. we just don't *agree* with that, no matter how often you trot out the "wont someone think of the economy!"

dude - dead people make no money. let me rephrase, dead people don't increase the profits of the rich. there, does that hit home at all?

lets go a bit less extreme; those that end up with severely reduced physical abilities due to getting covid - they are now essentially unemployable. you totally behind a 100% bailout of all those that can't work again, when they "nearly die for your dow" ?

with the total and absolute lack of social safety nets in this country, I resoundingly say again

NO. WE WILL NOT BUY YOUR BULLCOOKIES ABOUT DYING FOR YOUR DAMNED DOW.

[french accent]and bring it up again and we shall taunt you a second time[/accent]

 

[Doggydogworld]

And here are US covid deaths: Not great. But to me (layman) -- it seems the curve is on the right path.

View attachment 556597

Source: us covid deaths - Google Search

The US chart hides two trends -- a classic inverted V shape with a >90% drop from the peak in the original hotspots (greater NYC, Boston, Detroit and New Orleans) and a flat-to-rising trend everywhere else. Since "everywhere else" has ~90% of the population it is starting to overwhelm the downtrend in the original hotspots.

Sweden is back over 200 deaths for the most recent 7 day period. Still very noisy data, exacerbated by last week's reporting holiday which we're now lapping. The next day's number is always a total mystery with this country, but I see early signs the downward trend may be be leveling out.

 

[dfwatt]

And here are US covid deaths: Not great. But to me (layman) -- it seems the curve is on the right path.

View attachment 556597

Source: us covid deaths - Google Search

Newsflash: deaths lag infections by ballpark 2+ to 3+ weeks, so you need to wait a couple of weeks at least to see the current spiking of infection rates manifested in deaths. Basic epidemiology

 

[SageBrush]

we "get" that you guys want people to die for the economic gain of the elite. we get that. we just don't *agree* with that, no matter how often you trot out the "wont someone think of the economy!"

It is also a false equivalence.

The sure fire way to economic collapse is to let Covid rage out of control. The trumpers had a better argument when they opposed SAH, but opposing social distancing, ventilation, and mask use is so far past idiotic it reaches zombie mode.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Most countries have had the good sense not start a "second wave" (so far) but if you look at Iran that's exactly what you see. Deaths were flat for four weeks after the case trough before they started rising again.

View attachment 556609
View attachment 556611

Personally I wouldn't trust anything coming from a military dictatorship. But sure -- I'm not doubting there's a "second wave" in Iran. But it's probably bigger than those numbers are showing...

 

[dfwatt]

Isn't the recommendation for masks AND social distancing? That way there is much less chance any virus will reach you and what does should be an insignificant dose.

Of course. Regular surgical masks don't offer great protection on inhalation of virus, so for that reason social distancing is very critical. But because masks cut down on your emissions somewhat better than they limit your inhalation of other people's emissions, they are critical to reducing R value, and it been a critical and proven component for breaking transmission chains. Our refusal to do this is simply nonsense.

And people obsessing about the limitations in protection afforded by a regular non -N95 masks are really missing the forest for the trees. Anything that reduces transmission chains that is not extremely cumbersome or economically disastrous we are going to have to simply swallow and accept for an indefinite period of time. Until there's a vaccination.

Those are simply biological facts, and people who think that you can resume economic activity and have transmission processes run exponential again are just deluding themselves. In that sense there is very little real gap between what is best economically and what is best from an infectious disease standpoint. We have missed the opportunity that many other countries have achieved whereby they have virtually eliminated the virus except for a few small outbreaks here and there that can be contact traced, quarantined and shut down. And that missed opportunity is coming simply because of stupidity, denial, and the refusal to accept the biological facts. That foolishness is going to cost us trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of Lives. We should not kid ourselves that the current mess in the United States was totally avoidable, totally unnecessary, and totally of our own making.

 

[linux-works]

On the flip side, and this is an honest question - why should we (the public) pay for healthcare for people that blatantly do not want to make any effort and put precautions in place to prevent the spread of this disease?

Honestly, even as a physician, part of me is so upset by some of the flagrancy of the anti-maskers and anti-vaxers that if they get COVID-19, why should society, collectively, foot that bill?

agreed.

I can't think of any way to legally force people to comply; there is too much disagreement in this screwed up country. so, lets go economic - its the only 'language' we seem to want to understand.

lets have stores go full red or full blue. you want a no-mask food buying experience, fine; you are allowed into those stores in your neighborhood that follow that 'deeply held belief' (sigh).

those that want to fully enforce masks and distancing, let them advertise that they are 100% in that camp and anyone who does not agree with the rules and tries to force their way in gets arrested. there are stores for people who want to go maskless (in this sceanario) so there's no reason for them to mess things up for those that want to follow this rule.

its back to the 'two americas' thing again.

we always seem to come to this. the elephant in the room, so to speak.

it was one thing when our two belief systems didn't actually kill each other; but at this point, having a belief system that is caustic to others should be kept confined to those that want to live in that world.

I just don't know how to set all that up. but the current mix we have - its not working! soon, I do expect things to start boiling over and violence to occur between the two camps.

 

[davepsilon]

Wait a few weeks. Remember that there is a ~ 20 day lag between cases and mortality.

More specifically, the mortality data, once corrected for lag, is an amalgam of mortality reduction due to an increasingly younger cohort, and increasing mortality due to a rise in case load. For now those effects are pulling in opposing directions

You should also not be too naive here. Realize that young people getting infected will eventually come home to elders, even if the latter are not bar hopping.

I agree. I remember quite distinctly watching the initial US vs. Italy case and death numbers. For about two weeks it looked like the US mortality was much less. Various explanations were invented. Different ages of infected, different strain, different testing. But ultimately as was proved out within a few weeks it was primarily just a lagging metric.

Now I have no trouble believing that hospitals are slightly better at treating severe cases and cases tilt slightly younger in the US compared to March. But if you watch the number of deaths you are watching a lagging indicator. It tells you nothing about ‘now’. Hospitals in states with outbreaks are filling up. That tells me there is no shortage of severe cases so it would be naive to think deaths will not spike within a few weeks.

 

[TespaceX]

“Don’t be a sheep!”

- the lovely folks in Lewis County, WA.

 

[SageBrush]

Our refusal to do this is simply nonsense.

Nonsense ? How about lethal insanity ?

 

[N5329K]

On the flip side, and this is an honest question - why should we (the public) pay for healthcare for people that blatantly do not want to make any effort and put precautions in place to prevent the spread of this disease?

Honestly, even as a physician, part of me is so upset by some of the flagrancy of the anti-maskers and anti-vaxers that if they get COVID-19, why should society, collectively, foot that bill?

Insurance companies have thousands of people working hard to deny claims. Let's put some of them to work on this and see what happens. But it's a slippery slope from there to "stupid is a pre-existing condition. Coverage denied."
Robin

 

[SageBrush]

“Don’t be a sheep!”

That tuckFrump has forgotten that the uniform he wears is a pledge to uphold the law, not ignore it or use his standing in the community to lead dissent.

He should be fired on the spot

 

[dfwatt]

Nonsense ? How about lethal insanity ?

Maybe this is a version of good cop bad cop?

 

[dfwatt]

“Don’t be a sheep!”

- the lovely folks in Lewis County, WA.

Damn. That's what I call a commercial opportunity for one of our groundbreaking products. That's a large collection of morons. We have Moron Spray, Clorox Chewables, the Yahoo Bunghole Steam Gun, and our colleagues Solabag all available now and off of backorder.

I am cutting and pasting the latest testimonials on our new version of Moron Spray:

"Geez, this s*** works really well! I didn't know anything was wrong, and I went to one of my standard Trump rallies surrounded by a bunch of like-minded Trumpers, thinking everything was okay. A couple of squirts of Moron Spray and I sort of woke up as though I'd just come out of a dream and I thought "Jesus Christ what the f--- am I doing here? ...... the guy next to me is a f****** moron. And that guy over there he's a f****** moron too. Plus he's hacking and coughing oh, and nobody seems to mind. Holyshit they're all morons! I got to get out of here and do something useful." Thanks to Moron Spray I can now think like a rational person."

PS we now have the ability to incorporate discounts from online orders to TMC members and their family. So if you know someone in your family or immediate circle who is a complete and total moron, please fill out our confidential referral form. We will never disclose how many morons you're in close association with!

 

[SageBrush]

Relatively little has been discussed here about super-spreaders.
It is not well understood and there is no lack of politicalization but there is an increasingly clear aspect of the Covid-19 epidemic that is not being modeled or affecting public health policy: there is a wide range of infectivity across the population, and that extends to same age cohorts.

It does relatively little good to mask those who stay at home most of the time and always social distance if the minor fraction of the population are those with the highest risk profile and refuse to wear masks or social distance. They will have an outsized effect on the epidemic even though the other 90% of the population practice reasonably safe behavior.

This is why the trumper politicos who leave SMART behavior to the choice of the individual is flawed science. The only way to control the epidemic is to mandate universal SMART behavior. That way you catch those who would otherwise be super-spreaders.

 

[linux-works]

here's one for the docs

ha!

 

[linux-works]

Maybe this is a version of good cop bad cop?

I don't think the superposition principle applies, here.

then again, there certainly is a sense of brownian motion going on in the country right now.