Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

You're probably 100x more likely to be hospitalized if you're over 60 than if you're 20-30, so a shift in the proportion of infections makes a HUGE difference. Also a huge difference in mortality.

This is due to a number of factors, I think.

Here is an excellent thread just posted which adds a lot more clarity to my earlier post, and explains why we have to wait so long for deaths to show up. It captures those three critical factors I mentioned, which also explain the modified shape of the death curve relative to the case curve.

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1319892084250165254?s=21

 

[Norbert]

There's a second significant factor too, though it's less applicable to the first wave. It is a consequence of the age of the infected. In each of these second and third waves, the infections start in the young (20-50 primarily - under 20 tend to be shielded somewhat by parents or possibly their biology), and then the infections tend to move to the older people later in the wave. We saw this in Florida and it happens everywhere, and is physically very reasonable for it to behave this way with our culture and current public messaging. [...]

It also seems that Florida currently has an extremely long delay in reporting deaths. (Based on tweets by Bevand and CovidTracking.)

 

[renim]

Proper airing reduces risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection

'
Proper airing reduces risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection Indoor Air Hygiene Commission at the German Environment Agency issues recommendations for schools and other indoor spaces
'
'The IRK recommends - given the current state of knowledge about viruses - that the highest possible supply of fresh air should be provided indoors'

'Cross-ventilation is the best option with window ventilation because it quickly exchanges room air for fresh air by means of a draught through widely opened windows that are opposite each other if possible'


Finally a western government agency talking common sense, do as thailand did, open the windows.

 

[JRP3]

open the windows

That only works in certain climates.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Almost certainly back in March/April we were missing a huge number of cases. Based on the death rate and hospitalization rate, I suspect the infection rate was easily in the 100,000-150,000 daily cases rate back in March/April. I mean, comparing the March/April spike to the August spike in hospitalizations, it simply does not make sense that less than half the cases led to the same number of people in the hospital.

I still say Youyang Gu's COVID Projections site is (ironically) the best for historical estimates. Machine learning may not predict the future that well, but it's terrific for curve-fitting the past. He shows peaks of 317k infections/day in mid-March and 405k in early July. When he stopped updating his model on 10/5 it estimated 363k new infections today.

Deaths were about double in the first peak, 7 day average of 22xx/day vs. 11xx/day. I attribute that to old people and (most) nursing homes being more careful after the first wave plus better treatment (less vents, more dex and maybe conv plasma).

 

[renim]

Whats the climate like in Germany?

Richtiges Lüften reduziert Risiko der SARS-CoV-2-Infektion

 

[cwerdna]

Trump called CNN 'bastards' for covering Covid-19. Hear Keilar's response

- if you only wish to hear him say it, it's at the beginning. The rest is CNN's response (e.g. from people who lost loved ones, doctors, people who can't return to work due to their condition, etc.)

 

[zecar]

That only works in certain climates.

In a typical not-too-airtight house exhaust fans with exterior vents will do a fair amount of air exchange even in winter. Cracking a window away from the exhaust fan provides even more air exchange.

A household with covid should try to make the sick room have negative pressure. This goal could be as simple as sealing off a return air vent and a opening a window maybe a 1/4" in the sick room. Alternatively close off all vents in the sick room and use a space heater.

Viral load is obviously key. Medical workers have done quite well. Not by completely avoiding the virus, but by reducing viral load.

 

[wdolson]

Could also get one of these
Do Molekule air purifiers destroy COVID-19?

 

[jerry33]

Could also get one of these
Do Molekule air purifiers destroy COVID-19?

I notice that the airflow volume isn't in the specs (or at least I didn't see it on their site). They appear to be very small devices, so my question is, how much air can they filter and will it be enough to make a difference. The big IQAir filters airflow volume is 560 cu m/hour at the highest speed (330 cu ft/minute).

 

[SMAlset]

Two more of Pence’s staff are covid positive, Short and Obst. From CNN:

Pence adviser Marty Obst tests positive for coronavirus

A Washington Post article covering this news had this quote from Pence spokesman Devin O’Malley:

“O’Malley added, “While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the Vice President will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel.”

.... WP went onto report that “Obst tested positive for the virus earlier this week but the White House did not disclose his infection at the time, according to an official with knowledge of the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private matter.”

 

[Norbert]

7-day average of US new cases, compared to Sept 27th:

Oct 11th: + 20%
Oct 15th: + 30%
Oct 20th: + 46% (today)

Apparently the White House doesn't care because it is "tired" (and immune?). Tired of ruling over a country lacking applause, I guess.

7-day average of US new cases, compared to Sept 27th:

Oct 11th: + 20%
Oct 15th: + 30%
Oct 20th: + 46%
Oct 24th: + 62% (today)

Just keeping track... like the single day record, the 7-day average will soon set a new record (most likely).

 

[Norbert]

Viral load is obviously key. Medical workers have done quite well. Not by completely avoiding the virus, but by reducing viral load.

I agree about viral load, but saying medical workers did well, is very relative. One month ago:

More than 1,700 U.S. healthcare workers have died from COVID-19, nurses' union says

More than 1,700 U.S. healthcare workers have died from COVID-19, nurses' union says

 

[cwerdna]

Two more of Pence’s staff are covid positive, Short and Obst. From CNN:

Pence adviser Marty Obst tests positive for coronavirus

A Washington Post article covering this news had this quote from Pence spokesman Devin O’Malley:

“O’Malley added, “While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the Vice President will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel.”

.... WP went onto report that “Obst tested positive for the virus earlier this week but the White House did not disclose his infection at the time, according to an official with knowledge of the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private matter.”

Seems to be up to 4 Pence aides: 4 Pence Aides Test Positive for the Coronavirus.

Chris Christie urges Americans to wear a mask and says they are not a 'partisan or cultural symbol' has an interview with Chris Christie, Republican former governor of NJ. He spent seven days in the ICU. He said the it hit him like a freight train and he went from feeling fine to in the ICU within 24 hours.

He's fortunate to have survived given how obese he is.

 

[wdolson]

I notice that the airflow volume isn't in the specs (or at least I didn't see it on their site). They appear to be very small devices, so my question is, how much air can they filter and will it be enough to make a difference. The big IQAir filters airflow volume is 560 cu m/hour at the highest speed (330 cu ft/minute).

They are quiet about air flow. I found one review who estimated the CADR is around 88 cfm. Fairly low compared to other air filters/purifiers. They have new tech to destroy viruses, but their initial implementation may still need work.

 

[cwerdna]

Hospitals are full but some parts of Idaho refuse mask rules - real smart.

BOISE, Idaho -- Moments after hearing an Idaho hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and looking at sending people as far away as Seattle for care, members of a regional health department board voted Thursday to repeal a local mask mandate.

“Most of our medical surgical beds at Kootenai Health are full,” Panhandle Health District epidemiologist Jeff Lee told board members in the state's third most populated county.

The hospital in Coeur d'Alene reached 99% capacity a day earlier, even after doubling up patients in rooms and buying more hospital beds. Idaho is one of several states where a surge of COVID-19 infections is overwhelming hospitals, likely in part because cooler weather is sending people indoors, U.S. health officials said.
...
But the board voted 4-3 to end the mask mandate. Board members overseeing the operations of Idaho’s public health districts are appointed by county commissioners and not required to have any medical experience.

Board member Walt Kirby said he was giving up on the idea of controlling the spread of coronavirus.

“I personally do not care whether anybody wears a mask or not. If they want to be dumb enough to walk around and expose themselves and others, that's fine with me,” Kirby said. “Nobody's wearing the damned mask anyway. ... I'm sitting back and watching them catch it and die. Hopefully I'll live through it.”

Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.

“Something's making these people sick, and I'm pretty sure that it's not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, 'What's making them sick?'” he told the medical professionals who testified.

Similar scenes — with doctors and nurses asking officials for help, only to be met with reluctance or even open skepticism — have played out across the conservative state. Idaho is sixth in the nation for new coronavirus cases per capita, with the average number of confirmed cases increasing by more than 55% every day over the past two weeks.

 

[wdolson]

Hospitals are full but some parts of Idaho refuse mask rules - real smart.

Doubling down on the stupid!

Allen Banks especially. Epidemiology is not the easiest subject to fully understand, but even someone as challenged as Forrest Gump could grasp the basics of cause and effect well enough to understand when a novel virus is loose in the population that an increase in hospitalizations is probably due to that virus.

 

[Norbert]

The US has the perfect storm for the worst outbreak in the world: a large land mass with lots of traffic across the borders both by air, sea, and land in normal times. That allowed the virus to get established in the first place.

This just is not the core of the problem in the US. The virus got more or less established everywhere, and even in the US we already were at a much lower level than we are now. Rt was below 1.0 , and it should and could have stayed there.

 

[zecar]

I don't find the small air filters to be practical due to noise. I have two large blue air units that I run on medium. If I was concerned about virus in household air I would buy the new Blueair HealthProtect 7770i which will be released at the end of the month

 

[cwerdna]

White House has given up:
https://twitter.com/EricDKoch/status/1320361055923720192?s=20 (about 1.5 minute excerpt of interview w/Mark Meadows on CNN)

The below also report on this.
White House chief of staff Mark Meadows: 'We are not going to control the pandemic' - CNNPolitics
CNN's Jake Tapper presses White House chief of staff after top Pence aides test positive for coronavirus

https://twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/1320360894182862850?s=20 is about 5.5 minutes long and has the above clip but more of it...

Mark Meadows: “We’re not going to control the pandemic, we are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations.”

Jake Tapper: “Why aren’t we going to get control of the pandemic?”

Meadows: “Because it is a contagious virus” #CNNSOTU