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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Tiger
Active Member
It is said that having been sick from COVID does not make you immune in a robust or predictable way.
How/is it different with the different upcoming vaccines (apart for the obvious that it is safer to get vaccine than the illness)?
How/is it different with the different upcoming vaccines (apart for the obvious that it is safer to get vaccine than the illness)?
"U.S. OPERATION WARP SPEED CHIEF ADVISER DR. MONCEF SLAOUI SAID U.S. EXPECTS TO HAVE IMMUNIZED 100 MILLION PEOPLE BY THE END OF THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021"
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1338124906102452225
This sounds optimistic to me, but I would gladly take it.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1338124906102452225
This sounds optimistic to me, but I would gladly take it.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Say 10% of women are pregnant and won't take the current vaccines, 51% women in general population, lets just make that ~17 million women that won't take it. Lets say 12 and under won't take it in that time frame (12-18 is being tested now). Teenagers are about 20 million or so in the US but I already cut out women so call it ~10 million teenage boys. About 60 million under 12, again women accounted for earlier so another ~30 million young boys.
** ~330 million - 17 - 10 - 30 = ~273 million
So 100 million by spring would only be about 36% of the target pool at that point assuming I didn't miss any groups that can't take it.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I was wrong about the daily cases graph, not sure why I didn't see it yesterday. I guess I'll have to wait for Wednesday for the charts to align.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure when it happened but the US moved up to 2nd on the cases per million people table.
given the spike in new cases we should move up the deaths per million people ranks soon enough.
given the spike in new cases we should move up the deaths per million people ranks soon enough.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
apparently Turkey is a new hotspot. Looks like an artifact or bad data on the graph above but other graphs show it is a hotspot right now.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-turkey-adjusts-coronavirus-cases-million.html
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-turkey-adjusts-coronavirus-cases-million.html
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
treatment in Mexico that much worse or is it ethnicity playing a factor?
bottom image suggests ethnicity shouldn't be that big a multiplier for Mexico.
If it's not treatment maybe Mexico isn't testing enough and that is throwing the case fatality rate off? If so then Italy and the UK are guilty of under testing to some extent as well.
bottom image suggests ethnicity shouldn't be that big a multiplier for Mexico.
If it's not treatment maybe Mexico isn't testing enough and that is throwing the case fatality rate off? If so then Italy and the UK are guilty of under testing to some extent as well.
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Yeah I read how horrible it is in central valley areas. Also read how equally bad it is for small towns with very limited hospital resources in the midwest as well, with not only limited facilities but few medical personnel to staff. With staff getting sick the situation is even worse. I can't imagine having to have a loved one transported away to another city tens of miles away or even flown elsewhere.
I try not to comment too often or in depth about my feelings on people not wearing masks contributing to the state of affairs now. Had the radio on last night and there was a lady who called in from Monterey and said she thought it was all a hoax. Didn't know anyone who had caught it. Do these deniers think everyone in the world is lying and faking stories telling how their family member has gotten seriously ill and/or died from it? I just can't believe people can be so clueless or unwilling to acknowledge this virus.
This has been such a tremendous burden on all our doctors, nurses and support staff. I know they have dedicated themselves to helping make people well but can't help but feel so totally irresponsible of non-mask wearers to put them in this position and sure these same people will be expecting staff and ICU/bed space to be available when they come down with the fake virus. Experts are saying this likely isn't going to be the worst yet too.
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treatment in Mexico that much worse or is it ethnicity playing a factor?
View attachment 617422
bottom image suggests ethnicity shouldn't be that big a multiplier for Mexico.
If it's not treatment maybe Mexico isn't testing enough and that is throwing the case fatality rate off? If so then Italy and the UK are guilty of under testing to some extent as well.
I’m not aware of ethnicity or “race” as genetic traits being a known actual direct association with poor outcomes with COVID-19. Rather, it is an indirect association for folks who tend to have jobs that cannot be done at home. In other words, essential workers. Often in jobs that involve social interactions with many other people.
These are typically lower paying jobs as well and these people are more likely to share housing or live in multi-generation households. Maybe they take public transit to their workplace. Also, it’s been shown that lower-income neighborhoods where these folks predominantly live tend to have smaller grocery stores where fellow customers interact more.
In other words, they have many more opportunities to be exposed to the virus and catch it. Sure, once they catch it and have a bad case of it they tend to end up in public hospitals with less fancy health care but the biggest issue is catching it in the first place.
As for Mexico’s apparently oddly high CFR, my guess is that it’s due to poor availability of testing so that many more cases go uncounted.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'll take 60M by St Paddy's Day so long as it's hospital workers plus the most vulnerable. That would be enough to resume "normal life" IMO.
uujjj2
Member
Mrs. Uujjj is an emergency physician in the Central Valley and in San Jose and can attest to the grim situation in both places.
uujjj2
Member
I would love this to be true but it may be wishful thinking. 60M vaccinated by St. Paddy's would likely get us back to September-like numbers, but not "normal life". The earliest realistic return to "normal life" is summer 2021. But there will likely be at least some restrictions though late 2021.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by ethnic group, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics
Main points
- Provisional analysis for the period 2 March to 15 May 2020 shows, that after taking into account size and age structure of the population, the mortality rate for deaths involving COVID-19 was highest among males of Black ethnic background at 255.7 deaths per 100,000 population and lowest among males of White ethnic background at 87.0 deaths per 100,000.
- For females, the pattern was similar with the highest rates among those of Black ethnic background (119.8) and lowest among those of White ethnic background (52.0).
- To understand and explain these differences we explored further with statistical modelling using information from only private households included in the 2011 Census.
- This analysis showed that for all ages the rate of deaths involving COVID-19 for Black males was 3.3 times greater than that for White males of the same age, while the rate for Black females was 2.4 times greater than for White females.
- After adjusting for region, population density, socio-demographic and household characteristics, the raised risk of death involving COVID-19 for people of Black ethnic background of all ages together was 2.0 times greater for males and 1.4 times greater for females compared with those of White ethnic background.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is entirely possible, because it was likely circulating in Wuhan in November, that's what Bedford and others have postulated for the timing of the index case (based on genetic analysis and the characteristics of spread). It's entirely possible that a case or two could have flung out early from there - but remember there is no guarantee that a single infection will take hold in a new population. Regardless, it takes time to take off. Given that Italy was early, it's entirely possible it was starting to spread in the community even in late December or so (at that point it was widespread in Wuhan).
Anyway, we'll probably find this all out later. Regardless, it doesn't indicate that coronavirus was widespread at a different timeline that the current timeline suggests (December for Wuhan, taking off in Italy in January, taking off in New York in February, etc.). Certainly doesn't mean that everyone has had it. For people in the US, unless you were in New York, it's exceedingly unlikely that any illness you had in January would have been coronavirus. And virtually impossible in December. Note I'm NOT saying there weren't cases in the US that early. There were - they have been documented - but they were isolated cases.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
From what I understand (I'm not a doctor):
Being sick with COVID usually will make you immune, for at least a decent period of time, in a robust way. Note that antibody titers declining (which they do) does not mean you are not robustly immune (this is apparently normal).
However, there is no guarantee. There are re-infections, but they appear to be fairly uncommon, otherwise we'd be hearing a lot more stories (I think there are only 100s of documented re-infections at this point?).
A vaccine will often induce a stronger immune response than the disease itself (this is not specific to this vaccine). I am not sure why this is, but apparently that is the case for the mRNA vaccines. The prime-boost two-dose vaccine is also effective at giving a stronger immune response. My understanding is that this immune response can be "designed for" to some extent. I don't know anything about those details.
Still, there is no guarantee it will give you immunity - we know that perhaps 5% of people do not have an effective response to the vaccine. (However, severe infections appear to be rare, though it is a small sample size so uncertainty is high.) It's possible that these people would not have had a good durable immune response to the disease, either. I don't know.
The idea of course is to make sure that you and everyone around you has been vaccinated, and that way you don't have to worry too much whether or not the vaccine is effective for you.
(I’m just thinking aloud here).
It’s possible that maybe we aren’t hearing of more documented cases of reinfection for a couple reasons:
1. Not enough time for observation has passed yet.
2. Wouldn’t documentation of reinfection cases require stored samples from a reinfected patient’s first bout with the disease? How many labs are keeping stored samples of all the tests being run?
Back in June a story circulated that satellite photos showed that hospitals in Wuhan were abnormally busy in August 2019 and about that time the rate of people searching for the common symptoms of COVID online in Wuhan went up
Coronavirus: Satellite traffic images may suggest virus hit Wuhan earlier
There are also stories of people coming to the US from China in the fall of 2019, getting sick, and the Chinese freaking out about it. One patient was taken back to China by a team wearing hazmat suits.
The Chinese government wants happy news out there all the time and they work hard to suppress stories that are bad news.
treatment in Mexico that much worse or is it ethnicity playing a factor?
View attachment 617422
bottom image suggests ethnicity shouldn't be that big a multiplier for Mexico.
If it's not treatment maybe Mexico isn't testing enough and that is throwing the case fatality rate off? If so then Italy and the UK are guilty of under testing to some extent as well.
On the other hand Belgium has had one of the worst COVID cases and deaths per capita and that is a very white country. On the other hand Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the highest density of black people in the world has fared far better than most of the rest of the world.
I don't think the factor is ethnicity as it is cultural factors, underlying health conditions in the population, and the population being willing and able to deal with a health crisis. In developed countries outside of Asia, the people who do the scut work that has to get done and often in enclosed spaces with other people are more often non-white than white. They have jobs where they have to show up where the more affluent (and more often white) are more likely to have a job they can do from home.
Poor people are also much more likely to have health problems that put them at more risk. Additionally how well educated a population is in health measures helps tremendously. In Africa, they have had to deal with AIDS for decades, plus ebola breaks out about once every 15 years. The population may be poorly educated in general, but they have had to learn things to manage diseases. When word came around there was another disease and people needed to take measures to protect themselves, compliance was fairly high from the start.
That probably helped in Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea too. SARS is still around in living memory and people quickly went back to SARS protocols which helped quickly throttle spread.
Sub-Saharan Africa is also a warm climate with less access to air conditioning than most of the rest of the world. They also don't have a large manufacturing sector so there are few places where people are crammed together indoors to work. When people are indoors, they often have outside air circulating through. As a result conditions are poorer for COVID spread.
On the other hand while Mexico is generally pretty warm, work has been moving indoors for the last generation. NAFTA caused Mexico to industrialize and many Mexicans now make a living working in factories. On top of that the human trafficking business is a factor (mostly non-Mexicans these days, but they pass through Mexico) and the drug cartel use slave labor (I met someone who was kidnapped and forced into slave labor for a drug cartel until they escaped) with people crammed into conditions that probably aren't that safe in the best of times.
On top of that Mexico's education system is not very good, so people are not well educated in how diseases work and there has not been a serious disease outbreak there in a long time so people didn't have to learn. At a result Mexico is a Petri dish for a disease waiting to happen.
About 15 years ago I saw an article that looked at parts of the US where people were acquiring super bugs in hospitals and places where they were rare. They looked at different factors and found a pattern in employment. Hospitals that hired a lot of immigrants with poor educations to do the lowest level jobs tended to have worst problems with antibiotic resistant bacteria than hospitals that mostly hired poorly educated American born workers. The American born workers had grown up with messages of basic hygiene and the foreign born workers often hadn't. As a result, the American born workers got the idea much quicker and tended to comply with procedures to prevent spread of disease more readily than the foreign born. (It has nothing to do with ethnicity, just cultural education.)
The US has had a bad time with COVID because of poor leadership, politicization of the disease for stupid reasons, on top of there being nothing like this effectively in living memory. My father was born in 1920 and died of natural causes in September. He remembers adults talking about the flu pandemic when he was a kid and his grandfather died of it, but he never faced anything like it personally until the last year of his life.
Most of the developed world has had to deal with lack of experience. Some countries fared well through early phases, but COVID fatigue set in, people dropped their guard, and now they are facing growing outbreaks.
I witnessed the difference in belief in the government first hand when I went to California for my father's funeral. I drove down and as far as Eugene, OR, everyone was complying with COVID restrictions. Here we have a COVID dance we do in stores to try and maintain as much social distance as possible, but still get by others.
South of Eugene people who do comply are only doing the bare minimum to stay legal and many are ignoring the restrictions with no implications. I'm not surprised the San Joaquin Valley is spinning out of control again. I saw some willful defiance in the Valley. Cases are growing in Oregon and Washington, but at a much slower rate than most of the US.
I believe the documented cases are just people who have a record of testing positive for COVID, then testing clear only to test positive again at a later date. The cases are rare.
Some people may not develop enough T-cells to prevent reinfection, but most probably do. We see this with the flu. Some people get every flu as a child then never get it again (my entire family is this way), others may get a flu, but then be vulnerable for a milder case of the same flu some times later, and still others don't seem to develop much in the way of long term immunity at all and they are as vulnerable to all the flus going around every winter as they are the rinoviruses going around.
COVID-19 and SARS are closely related. Close enough that people who had SARS appear to be immune to COVID. And a study done on people who had SARS 17 years ago, all still had T-cell immunity. But the sample is small because only a few thousand people got SARS and some of them have died of something else in the last 17 years.
I suspect the bulk of people once they get COVID T-cells will have full or almost full immunity for life. Once enough people are vaccinated we may see COVID essentially disappear with only the occasional symptomatic case popping up from someone who doesn't have long term immunity or someone who never got it the first time who gets a bad case. It will stay alive passing among small children and most will never know they had it.
I've heard this as well, most reinfections are with very mild or no symptoms but unknown if they are contagious. If they are contagious, will it be hard to stomp down R0 without widespread infection or vaccination rates?
It's quite likely those vulnerable to reinfection could be less than 1%. If so that should keep the R0 down very low. However, the percentage of people who can get reinfected is unknown. Like everything else with this pandemic, we just don't have good enough data yet.
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