The first documented case in the US was of a 25-year old Nevada male. His symptoms were more severe with the second infection, and it was genomic sequencing (not just simple PCR) that revealed a different variation of SARS-COV-2 had infected him.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
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The first documented case in the US was of a 25-year old Nevada male. His symptoms were more severe with the second infection, and it was genomic sequencing (not just simple PCR) that revealed a different variation of SARS-COV-2 had infected him.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Sure. But accounting for that and assuming it is actually 10s of thousands of cases, or whatever...reinfection is likely quite rare. I’d expect less than 5% reinfection rate (note I am not saying it is likely to be 5%), which is very low for the purposes of this discussion, but I am not a doctor. Basically that is my thought based on vaccine effectiveness, but not sure whether the 95% counted infections before the vaccine could be effective (14-day window after first shot), and not sure that is really applicable or extendable to natural infection. Anyway, that 5% or less is all we would need, of course.
in terms of duration it seems that this has been looked at and it seems durable immunity lasts for at least months and there is some evidence that immunity could be long-lasting. All we need is a year, though longer would be nice. My guess from what I have read is that for many people the immunity will be very durable and maybe we get boosters every few years. I have no idea, but I am not that worried about it, based on what I have read. It is very fortunate - was not clear for a while.
You guys might remember after the WH Rose Garden superspreader event for Supreme Court Justice Cohen-Barret, that Crede Bailey, the WH Director of Security, was diagnosed with covid and reported in serious condition. Just saw an update on Apple News/The Daily Beast that originated from Bloomberg. The news isn't very good in that he's spent three months in the hospital and it became necessary to amputate his big toe on his left foot as well as his right foot and lower leg (guessing from blood clots as in a number of other reported covid cases). A friend of his started a GoFundMe account to help his family out from the mounting hospital bills and rehab needed.
“His family has staggering medical bills from a hospital stay of 2+ months and still counting in the ICU and a long road ahead in rehab before he can go home,” McCrobie wrote Nov. 13, when she created the account. “When he does make it home there will be major changes necessary to deal with his new, and permanent, disability.”
Hopefully this link from Bloomberg will work for everyone. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Have to wonder if the WH had required everyone to wear a face mask if his exposure level to the virus might have been lessened and his condition if he still got covid not as severe. This latest news of his condition is very sad but he will make it home which I'm sure his family is thankful for.
“His family has staggering medical bills from a hospital stay of 2+ months and still counting in the ICU and a long road ahead in rehab before he can go home,” McCrobie wrote Nov. 13, when she created the account. “When he does make it home there will be major changes necessary to deal with his new, and permanent, disability.”
Hopefully this link from Bloomberg will work for everyone. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Have to wonder if the WH had required everyone to wear a face mask if his exposure level to the virus might have been lessened and his condition if he still got covid not as severe. This latest news of his condition is very sad but he will make it home which I'm sure his family is thankful for.
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Weird. Even with the average shitty health insurance plan the out-of-pocket maximum should be capped at $20k or so.
And doesn't the White House Director of Security get decent coverage through work?
Sucks when your job forces you to be around stupid people.
That's so sad. I guess he wasn't able to get the free care and experimental treatments that some get.
Don't know much about his situation or postion on mask wearing but I do feel sorry for the WH staff that wanted to wear masks and from accounts were discouraged doing so while at work. As we know people outside of the WH face that pressure from non-mask wears all the time still despite how dire the infection rate is now. In fact saw a story that contained several twitter videos today in AppleNews/Newsweek of some guy standing on no less than the top of a clothing table in a Tustin, California Costco with a bull horn making his position on mask wearing abundantly clear to shoppers.
From the article,
Bailey’s office handles credentialing for access to the White House complex and works closely with the U.S. Secret Service on security measures. Bailey was known on the compound as a strong Trump supporter.
Maybe he could have wanted a different position, but it doesn’t sound exactly like he was forced into being around these people at the WH. Regardless, hopefully, he will adapt and heal soon.
Jim Cramer on CNBC keeps talking about paying people to take the vaccine. Right now they can't produce enough to meet demand (sounds similar to a car company I know), but I keep seeing people who are suspicious or outright hostile to it. While I don't think a payment of reasonable size will get those people to overcome their paranoia, but people on the fence listening to the rabid misinformation might. Does anyone think this might help get more people vaccinated?
PACEMD
Active Member
Then you only get one dose? Just spitballin' here..........
You wait and get your second shot when it eventually becomes available. That wouldn’t be ideal because it’s a waste of time and isn’t what was strictly studied during the approval process but all signs point to a somewhat late 2nd shot still being highly effective. For example, with the Oxford Astrazenica vaccine, the subset who accidentally got a half-dose for their first shot ended getting their 2nd shot a month later than planned (I think) and that group had 90% efficacy vs less than 70% for the folks who got the intended trial dosaging.
PACEMD
Active Member
Medicine is a game of statistics, in the abstract. A single immunization will likely provide immunity to a high percentage of people. The second immunization will push those numbers to a high level. Meaning a lot of people would only need a single immunization to achieve effective immunity. But we do not know in particular which people only need a single immunization and testing immune response is not practical so.......two shots.
As a reminder, the number of trial participants in the half dose group was only 1/3 of that in the larger full dose group. And, more importantly, everyone in the half dose group was younger than 55 years old. The full dose group was older.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
so I pasted this in and then started looking for a date, had to go back to the source Monitoring the Coronavirus Outbreak in Metro Areas Across the U.S.
Anyway a lot of Tennessee cities on that list.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This was a good thread for those attempting to understand what the second dose does, and how it affects antibody levels and immune response. That second dose has a substantial effect, increasing titers tenfold, but for many people, the first dose will likely be enough to be protective (at least for a period of time, and there is no protection until about two weeks after the first dose), even though titers are low. Personally I wouldn't risk it, though!:
https://twitter.com/deeptabhattacha/status/1337147835175718912?s=20
This covers the antibody response, but he'll have future threads covering the other elements of the immune system.
Beginning to wonder whether cases are going to keep heading upwards and for how long in the US. For some reason I thought the cases would peak shortly, due to the numerous mitigation measures now in place nationwide - it has worked in the past!
While the rate of exponential growth has slowed, infections continue to grow. At some point does the level of transmission become so high that nothing short of a strict lockdown works to stem the tide? Or will the infection count peak shortly and turn downwards as it has elsewhere?
I know that this surge is a composite of different outbreaks in many states with rises and falls (Tennessee and Ohio are super hot right now as I recall). But it seems like cases, when they do fall in all of these states, will likely fall to an even higher baseline level than before (especially with the weather, the holidays, etc.). So the American carnage will continue. And we won't see the impact of the vaccine on mortality until sometime in late January, at the earliest, accounting for the 10-14 day delay in the vaccine becoming effective, and the reporting delays. I hope I'm wrong. I hope COVID will be over in January, of course!
https://twitter.com/deeptabhattacha/status/1337147835175718912?s=20
This covers the antibody response, but he'll have future threads covering the other elements of the immune system.
Beginning to wonder whether cases are going to keep heading upwards and for how long in the US. For some reason I thought the cases would peak shortly, due to the numerous mitigation measures now in place nationwide - it has worked in the past!
While the rate of exponential growth has slowed, infections continue to grow. At some point does the level of transmission become so high that nothing short of a strict lockdown works to stem the tide? Or will the infection count peak shortly and turn downwards as it has elsewhere?
I know that this surge is a composite of different outbreaks in many states with rises and falls (Tennessee and Ohio are super hot right now as I recall). But it seems like cases, when they do fall in all of these states, will likely fall to an even higher baseline level than before (especially with the weather, the holidays, etc.). So the American carnage will continue. And we won't see the impact of the vaccine on mortality until sometime in late January, at the earliest, accounting for the 10-14 day delay in the vaccine becoming effective, and the reporting delays. I hope I'm wrong. I hope COVID will be over in January, of course!
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
My 77 year old mother just told me she's going to the dentist for a nonemergency procedure Monday. I'm of the opinion that she is not. Absolutely crazy what people are willing to do with literally WEEKS left until vulnerable seniors will be vaccinated. This is a smart, coherent person who doesn't vote for orange people too.
Tiger
Active Member
The half dose was given the first week to study participants in the UK due to a manufacturing error. Early participants to the trial tended to have lower risk factors which could explain the difference in efficacy.
Unrelated to above, the AZ trial closed in the US after an event in UK, stopping the trial in UK and US. After FDA approval, the trial reopened a month later in the US and some participants received their second jab late.
Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 Post-Exposure Prophylaxis - American College of Cardiology
Interpretation:
The results of this trial indicate that among patients exposed to patients with SARS-CoV-2, hydroxychloroquine, administered within a median duration of 2 days as post-exposure prophylaxis, did not reduce the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 infection with 14 days, compared with placebo (vitamin C). There was a higher incidence of gastrointestinal and dermatological side effects with hydroxychloroquine, although the incidence of serious side effects was similar.
Although this was a smaller study, the lack of effect shown in this study builds on other recent data and provides evidence against the routine use of hydroxychloroquine for SARS-CoV-2 post-exposure prophylaxis, a practice that is fairly common in many parts of the world.
Interpretation:
The results of this trial indicate that among patients exposed to patients with SARS-CoV-2, hydroxychloroquine, administered within a median duration of 2 days as post-exposure prophylaxis, did not reduce the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 infection with 14 days, compared with placebo (vitamin C). There was a higher incidence of gastrointestinal and dermatological side effects with hydroxychloroquine, although the incidence of serious side effects was similar.
Although this was a smaller study, the lack of effect shown in this study builds on other recent data and provides evidence against the routine use of hydroxychloroquine for SARS-CoV-2 post-exposure prophylaxis, a practice that is fairly common in many parts of the world.
Kizzmekia Corbett, an African American woman, is praised as key scientist behind COVID-19 vaccine
"The very vaccine that's one of the two that has absolutely exquisite levels -- 94 to 95% efficacy against clinical disease and almost 100% efficacy against serious disease that are shown to be clearly safe -- that vaccine was actually developed in my institute's vaccine research center by a team of scientists led by Dr. Barney Graham and his close colleague, Dr. Kizzmekia Corbett, or Kizzy Corbett," Fauci told the forum. "Kizzy is an African American scientist who is right at the forefront of the development of the vaccine."
"The very vaccine that's one of the two that has absolutely exquisite levels -- 94 to 95% efficacy against clinical disease and almost 100% efficacy against serious disease that are shown to be clearly safe -- that vaccine was actually developed in my institute's vaccine research center by a team of scientists led by Dr. Barney Graham and his close colleague, Dr. Kizzmekia Corbett, or Kizzy Corbett," Fauci told the forum. "Kizzy is an African American scientist who is right at the forefront of the development of the vaccine."
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