Coronavirus

[wdolson]

I'll be tracking the CDC excess deaths page
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Right now we're down to normal numbers, but it will probably tick up again in a few weeks. From March 28, 2020 to June 5, 2021 tells the tale of what we've been through.

 

[jerry33]

FOX 4 Dallas: Dallas resident has Monkeypox; believed to be first-ever case in Texas.

Dallas resident has Monkeypox; believed to be first-ever case in Texas

Dallas County Health and Human Services reports the person who tested positive is now isolated at the hospital to prevent the spread of the virus and is in stable condition.

www.fox4news.com

I guess it is good practice to mask up with or without covid risk...

Yeah. I've been staying masked up as I reckon it's not over till the fat lady sings. In my opinion, the fat lady hasn't reached the dressing room yet--maybe she hasn't even arrived at the theatre.

 

[madodel]

Yeah. I've been staying masked up as I reckon it's not over till the fat lady sings. In my opinion, the fat lady hasn't reached the dressing room yet--maybe she hasn't even arrived at the theatre.

Same here, though I may continue to mask inside around large crowds as this has been the first year in decades I didn't get bronchitis at all. People are petri dishes of vile infections.

 

[Jeff N]

In San Francisco, which has one of the best public health and vaccination track records, 83% of those eligible (12 and older) have received their first shot and 76% are fully vaccinated. Daily new case numbers had dropped to very low numbers, and yet this is what is starting to happen…

 

[JRP3]

“Normally, we would all love to cheer for our athletes at the venues, but under the current circumstances, I ask that you cheer at home with your family or with people you meet on a regular basis,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, a top Covid-19 adviser to the Japanese government, said at a news conference. “Please refrain from cheering in large groups in public plazas, on the streets, or in restaurants.”

Japan's Dr. Fauci tells fans to watch Olympics at home

"Cheer at home with your family or with people you meet on a regular basis," Dr. Shigeru Omi said Friday.

www.aol.com

 

[TespaceX]

Disneyland in the morning.
(No, I did not go. A picture from someone who did).

This is what 40% park capacity waiting to get in looks like these days.

 

[madodel]

Disneyland in the morning.
(No, I did not go. A picture from someone who did).

This is what 40% park capacity waiting to get in looks like these days.

View attachment 685387

OMG. And this is probably everyday. I only see 1, possibly 2 kids with masks on.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Disneyland in the morning.
(No, I did not go. A picture from someone who did).

This is what 40% park capacity waiting to get in looks like these days.

My family went to Disneyland and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.
And this bug...

 

[uujjj2]

Yeah, malls, parks, theme parks, beaches, tourist attractions, restaurants here in California are packed, totally packed, and have been totally packed since about late March. (Back in January they were ghost towns.) Is it like this in other states too, or is it something California-specific?

 

[uujjj2]

OMG. And this is probably everyday. I only see 1, possibly 2 kids with masks on.

People here have pretty much stopped wearing masks outdoors. Inside stores and malls you still see a lot of masks. But with the news of COVID cases skyrocketing in the last week we might see some people wearing masks outdoors again.

 

[wdolson]

Yeah, malls, parks, theme parks, beaches, tourist attractions, restaurants here in California are packed, totally packed, and have been totally packed since about late March. (Back in January they were ghost towns.) Is it like this in other states too, or is it something California-specific?

I've read anywhere tourists go is packed. I've also heard car rentals in some places are higher than airfare and sometimes hotels.

I've stayed close to home so I have little first hand experience.

People here have pretty much stopped wearing masks outdoors. Inside stores and malls you still see a lot of masks. But with the news of COVID cases skyrocketing in the last week we might see some people wearing masks outdoors again.

I've noticed mask usage has gone up in the stores I normally go to. Though it isn't universal.

Throughout the pandemic I haven't worn masks outside. It may be different with Delta, but a little over a year ago it was found that transmission of the virus outdoors is extremely rare. Especially when people are maintaining a bit of distance from one another.

A friend of my partner is doing some yard rehab at our house in exchange for some services and she wears a mask outside all the time, but that's because the dust and pollen she's stirring up set off her allergies. COVID masks aren't as good as N95 for dust and pollen protection, but they aren't bad.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In San Francisco, which has one of the best public health and vaccination track records, 83% of those eligible (12 and older) have received their first shot and 76% are fully vaccinated. Daily new case numbers had dropped to very low numbers, and yet this is what is starting to happen…

View attachment 685303

That's quite a significant Delta.

 

[madodel]

I've read anywhere tourists go is packed. I've also heard car rentals in some places are higher than airfare and sometimes hotels.

I've stayed close to home so I have little first hand experience.



I've noticed mask usage has gone up in the stores I normally go to. Though it isn't universal.

Throughout the pandemic I haven't worn masks outside. It may be different with Delta, but a little over a year ago it was found that transmission of the virus outdoors is extremely rare. Especially when people are maintaining a bit of distance from one another.

A friend of my partner is doing some yard rehab at our house in exchange for some services and she wears a mask outside all the time, but that's because the dust and pollen she's stirring up set off her allergies. COVID masks aren't as good as N95 for dust and pollen protection, but they aren't bad.

I was in BJs (A warehouse store like Costco only Costco won't come to my area because it doesn't meet their income minimums) yesterday and most had no masks on and the store had no masks for sale which was different then just a week ago. It's like someone turned a switch and most people don't care anymore. I may order another case of N95s while places online are blowing them out.

 

[wdolson]

I was in BJs (A warehouse store like Costco only Costco won't come to my area because it doesn't meet their income minimums) yesterday and most had no masks on and the store had no masks for sale which was different then just a week ago. It's like someone turned a switch and most people don't care anymore. I may order another case of N95s while places online are blowing them out.

I've noticed that many things that were in high demand last year are on sale now. For her neurofeedback practice my partner uses alcohol wipes which were hard to find and expensive last year. I found them on Amazon cheaper than I'd ever seen them about a month ago and bought some more even though she has enough for a few months.

 

[Doggydogworld]

In San Francisco, which has one of the best public health and vaccination track records, 83% of those eligible (12 and older) have received their first shot and 76% are fully vaccinated. Daily new case numbers had dropped to very low numbers, and yet this is what is starting to happen…

View attachment 685303

That kind of spike where 83% have at least one shot implies an extremely high R0 or significant breakthrough. Probably the latter. NBA finals game going on right now had one vaccinated announcer out. Also missing a player, an assistant coach and a referee who were most likely also vaccinated.

 

[wdolson]

That kind of spike where 83% have at least one shot implies an extremely high R0 or significant breakthrough. Probably the latter. NBA finals game going on right now had one vaccinated announcer out. Also missing a player, an assistant coach and a referee who were most likely also vaccinated.

A group of Democrats from the Texas state House left the state and are in Washington DC to prevent a bill from passing. Even though they are vaccinated it was announced three tested positive today. I think there are 50 or 60 of them, so statistically 5 or 6 would be vulnerable to breakthrough infections with a 90% effective vaccine.

But I agree to be able to spread that effectively in a population that well vaccinated, the R0 for Delta probably is very high.

Just having a spike in positive tests alone is not alarming if testing is widespread and the bulk of the population is vaccinated. Many people who were vaccinated ant tested positive report feeling fine. Bill Maher said that when he had to take an unexpected two week break after testing positive.

If vaccines are failing then we would see a spike in people who are vaccinated turning up to the hospital. So far there are a few vaccinated people getting that sick, but it's a small minority of hospital cases.

With a very high R0 there may not be any vaccination rate that gets complete herd immunity. That's very bad news for those who can't get the vaccine. I have a friend in that group. She has a history of auto immune problems and has several health problems on top of that. Two doctors so far have told her she shouldn't get the vaccine until at least some of the other health problems are under better control.

She's an extravert who has been mostly housebound for over a year and she's climbing the walls.

 

[TespaceX]

I can't believe the timing of a family matter after posting that Disneyland picture earlier.
So, our family was supposed to get together tomorrow for our mom's birthday. But, we just got a call from my brother that his family won't be stopping by. Apparently, sister-in-law's work had a private dinner event for employees and any SO in a relatively spacious outdoor back patio of a restaurant few days ago. Out of 17 people, all fully vaccinated, two people who were strangers just got confirmation of positive test today. Some had masks and some did not. These two did not wear masks. No confirmation on their symptoms (or lack thereof). But, I would assume they are symptomatic because why would they seek a test otherwise? My brother and wife don't have any symptoms but they say they will get tested out of abundance of caution.
Obviously, it's not 100% verified (as of now) that the transmission between these two individuals happened at this event. They could have gotten it individually from somewhere else. But the chance seems pretty good.

Maybe not remarkably convincing as it's a small number, but goes to show that a mask can be useful even among fully vaccinated.

 

[Doggydogworld]

A group of Democrats from the Texas state House left the state and are in Washington DC to prevent a bill from passing. Even though they are vaccinated it was announced three tested positive today. I think there are 50 or 60 of them, so statistically 5 or 6 would be vulnerable to breakthrough infections with a 90% effective vaccine.

Alternatively, if the vaccine is 90% effective then 30 of the group would have caught it had they not been vaccinated. It's possible the vaccine turned a superspreader event into only 3 infections. But each similar situation strengthens the argument that efficacy against Delta is quite a bit lower than 90%.

Of course 80% is still great and even 60-70% pretty good. And the ratios of those hospitalized support the claim that efficacy against severe disease is much higher. We definitely want to keep vaccinating as many as possible. But there's a reason Pfizer started talking about boosters (much to the administration's dismay). Reduced efficacy looks to be real, and it's a blow to hopes of returning to normal.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Reduced efficacy looks to be real, and it's a blow to hopes of returning to normal.

I’m not convinced. I guess I am mostly sitting on the sidelines without an opinion. I agree that the evidence is really not clear, but the evidence of efficacy dropping below 85-90% is really not clearcut yet. I know the study from Israel was an outlier on the low side.
Substantially lower (more than 5-10% lower) efficacy than against Alpha? I think it is really unclear right now.

Just seems to me we don’t have great data on it (or no one who really has good data wants to talk about it). I do worry that the government is hesitant to provide another reason to people to not get vaccinated, or reduce the incentive to do so. Just need to know the facts, but eventually we will.

Even without reduced efficacy though, there are lots of more pessimistic end games, related to transmissibility. But to be clear, we don’t actually even know exactly what the R0 is, though groupthink seems to have decided it must be greater than 6…but I am not sure how strong that evidence base really is either.

Anyway, here is a nice pessimistic take:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416430672948903937

 

[FoverM]

I haven't posted in a long time but I wanted to post an update.

My wife started sneezing last Tue/Wed then got "sick" on Fri. I took her to CVS on Sat morning for a nasal swab test. She received results this evening: POSITIVE. This is our first and only positive result. Both of us had the Pfizer vaccine in March/April. Anyway, so far it has only been a bad "cold". No fever. No chest involvement. Just a headache, muscle aches, and fatigue. She was actually doing much better this morning but noticed that she couldn't taste anything today (other than salt).

My guess is that she got it on the "Girls Night Out" I planned for her birthday last weekend. It was at a local winery. This actually an interesting test case. My wife had Pfizer but never CV19, our daughter had J&J and never CV19, and my wife's friend had CV19 last September (don't know if she also had a vaccine, too). I assume that all of them were exposed to the same source last weekend. We'll see who all ends up getting it. My main concern is our daughter because she had a nasty episode with the swine flu back in 2008/2009. Ended up in the hospital with lower-lobe pneumonia a week after having a bad "cold".

I've been exposed to this bug for about five days and don't have any symptoms. Maybe all those gin-and-tonics I drink daily made a toxic environment for this damn bug

Edit: I'm going to get a test tomorrow morning.