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Re: BQ.1.1

a) Tom Wenseleers (twitter: TWenseleers) 7-Oct-2022
Repost of estimates of growth advantage of some emerging SARS-CoV2 variants (fixing mistake in my XBB annotation). Overall growth rate estimates, averaged across continents, has BQ.1.1 at nr 1, followed by BA.2.3.20, BQ.1, XBB and BA.2.75.2. BQ.1.1 currently looks like winner.

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b) Tom Wenseleers (twitter: TWenseleers) 7-Oct-2022
And here also a zoom just on the UK data - a country with excellent genomic surveillance. Since June, we have seen a clear sequence of invasion of ever fitter variants that take off faster and faster (steeper lines).
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Well we got 2 of the last 4 Moderna bivalent doses available in town yesterday. (They had none last week and who knows when more will be delivered).

So double vaccinated with Hi Dose Flu in one arm and Hi Dose (Moderna) Covid in the other.

Flu side is more tender today, no pain other than to the touch, and no systemic issues.

Sister-in-law got vertigo 2 days following bivalent Moderna that lasted 2.5 weeks. Vestibulitis is a known issue.

Soldiering on hoping BQ.1xx stays away from here for a while.
 
The Florida Department of Health (Department) conducted an analysis through a self-controlled case series, which is a technique originally developed to evaluate vaccine safety. This studied mortality risk following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. This analysis found there is an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. Individuals with preexisting cardiac conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular caution when considering vaccination and discuss with their health care provider.
As such, the Florida Department of Health has issued the following guidance:
Based on currently available data, patients should be informed of the possible cardiac complications that can arise after receiving a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac- related death among men in this age group.
The State Surgeon General now recommends against the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for males ages 18-39 years old.
Individuals and health care providers should also be aware that this analysis1 found:
• Males over the age of 60 had a 10% increased risk of cardiac-related death within 28 days of
mRNA vaccination.
• Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks among any population.

 
The Florida Department of Health (Department) conducted an analysis through a self-controlled case series, which is a technique originally developed to evaluate vaccine safety. This studied mortality risk following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. This analysis found there is an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. Individuals with preexisting cardiac conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular caution when considering vaccination and discuss with their health care provider.
As such, the Florida Department of Health has issued the following guidance:
Based on currently available data, patients should be informed of the possible cardiac complications that can arise after receiving a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac- related death among men in this age group.
The State Surgeon General now recommends against the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for males ages 18-39 years old.
Individuals and health care providers should also be aware that this analysis1 found:
• Males over the age of 60 had a 10% increased risk of cardiac-related death within 28 days of
mRNA vaccination.
• Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks among any population.

Interesting.

From the preliminary paper:

This study cannot determine the causative nature of a participant’s death. We used death certificate data and not medical records.

So, we can't tell anything about underlying conditions (e.g., diabetes). Also, the paper acknowledges a small sample size. And, of course, it encourages more study before jumping to conclusions.
 
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The Florida Department of Health (Department) conducted an analysis through a self-controlled case series, which is a technique originally developed to evaluate vaccine safety. This studied mortality risk following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. This analysis found there is an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. Individuals with preexisting cardiac conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular caution when considering vaccination and discuss with their health care provider.
As such, the Florida Department of Health has issued the following guidance:
Based on currently available data, patients should be informed of the possible cardiac complications that can arise after receiving a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac- related death among men in this age group.
The State Surgeon General now recommends against the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for males ages 18-39 years old.
Individuals and health care providers should also be aware that this analysis1 found:
• Males over the age of 60 had a 10% increased risk of cardiac-related death within 28 days of
mRNA vaccination.
• Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks among any population.

So I'm automatically highly suspect of any COVID related news from Florida that casts down on any of the well known and accepted measures to reduce COVID risk, so after just a tiny bit of searching, found this great analysis of the Florida report.

In short, there's absolutely no reason to believe their conclusion, and IMO, they went digging into the data to find a way to get the conclusion they wanted.

Twitter:

Blog post with the Twitter thread:
 
So I'm automatically highly suspect of any COVID related news from Florida that casts down on any of the well known and accepted measures to reduce COVID risk, so after just a tiny bit of searching, found this great analysis of the Florida report.

In short, there's absolutely no reason to believe their conclusion, and IMO, they went digging into the data to find a way to get the conclusion they wanted.

Twitter:

Blog post with the Twitter thread:
Good to know.

Fwiw, I have two doses of Pfizer and one dose of Novavax in addition to one infection with Omicron. For me Novavax was so much less side effects, pfizer the first doses really knocked me out with a cocktail of strange symptoms.

My mum has had 4 doses of pfizer plus 1 dose of moderna plus one infection with Omicron. Moderna literally knocked her out, she fell, hit her head, couldn't get up etc. Imo she should not get more mRNA doses, it's not worth it for her to risk those sides given her pretty strong immunity by now. But she follows our governments guidelines... *sigh*

Now I recommend Novavax to my friends. Maybe it's not the best booster by some metrics, but the sides seem to be so much less that imo its cost/benefit is much more favorable to mRNA today. My own theory, the virus seems to evolve around the current immunity in the population, so maybe it's good to have one of the types of immunity combinations that are rare, so maybe that's a benefit to choose the less common vaccines.
 
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So I'm automatically highly suspect of any COVID related news from Florida that casts down on any of the well known and accepted measures to reduce COVID risk, so after just a tiny bit of searching, found this great analysis of the Florida report.

In short, there's absolutely no reason to believe their conclusion, and IMO, they went digging into the data to find a way to get the conclusion they wanted.

Twitter:

Blog post with the Twitter thread:
Thanks for sharing that exhaustive analysis.

As I pointed out above, even a cursory look uncovers many shortcomings. And the authors themselves were too embarrassed to put their names to it.

The anonymous author(s) themselves note these significant limitations, stating that they “cannot determine the causative nature of a participant’s death” and “the underlying cause of death may not be cardiac related.”

Hopefully for most thoughtful people it won't pass the sniff test, and they'll ignore it.
 
Good to know.

Fwiw, I have two doses of Pfizer and one dose of Novavax in addition to one infection with Omicron. For me Novavax was so much less side effects, pfizer the first doses really knocked me out with a cocktail of strange symptoms.

My mum has had 4 doses of pfizer plus 1 dose of moderna plus one infection with Omicron. Moderna literally knocked her out, she fell, hit her head, couldn't get up etc. Imo she should not get more mRNA doses, it's not worth it for her to risk those sides given her pretty strong immunity by now. But she follows our governments guidelines... *sigh*

Now I recommend Novavax to my friends. Maybe it's not the best booster by some metrics, but the sides seem to be so much less that imo its cost/benefit is much more favorable to mRNA today. My own theory, the virus seems to evolve around the current immunity in the population, so maybe it's good to have one of the types of immunity combinations that are rare, so maybe that's a benefit to choose the less common vaccines.
Sorry to hear your mum had a bad experience. You didn't mention her age or health status, but one might wonder whether the higher dose of mRNA in Moderna vs. Pfizer led to her fainting spell. There could be other reasons as well, volume depleted, empty stomach, 2 mRNA varieties vs one, etc.

But I wouldn't necessarily throw the baby out with the bathwater. mRNA vaccines are relatively pure. In other words, spike protein is all that they generate. Other vaccines have other stuff. There are moths and tree bark in Novovax to boost the immunogenic effect. Who knows? She might react to one of those (or you might).

That said, I hope you both remain healthy and safe. 🍻
 
So I'm automatically highly suspect of any COVID related news from Florida that casts down on any of the well known and accepted measures to reduce COVID risk, so after just a tiny bit of searching, found this great analysis of the Florida report.

In short, there's absolutely no reason to believe their conclusion, and IMO, they went digging into the data to find a way to get the conclusion they wanted.

Twitter:

Blog post with the Twitter thread:
FWIW, I found a couple other Twitter threads which point out rather obvious issues with the analysis. Again, to me it certainly looks like they specifically cherry picked data to fit a preconceived theory.

On this thread, another conclusion from their dataset (or another flaw with their dataset, depending on how you look at it) is:
... relative incidence of all-cause mortality was lower (sometimes significantly) after COVID-19 immunizations ... And look, it's a fairly modest effect, but immediately it's weird that the Surgeon General didn't tweet "COVID-19 VACCINES MAY REDUCE YOUR RISK OF NON-COVID DEATH, ANALYSIS SHOWS" because...that seems important? ... for someone aged 18-39, getting a COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a whopping 45% (23-61%) reduction in non-cardiac death! Huge!


The Florida Surgeon General claims a recent data analysis shows an "84% increase" in cardiac death in young males after vaccination means "the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed".
Rubbish!
That's: ~9 extra cardiac deaths ~300 covid deaths avoided
A very good deal
 
FWIW, I found a couple other Twitter threads which point out rather obvious issues with the analysis. Again, to me it certainly looks like they specifically cherry picked data to fit a preconceived theory.

On this thread, another conclusion from their dataset (or another flaw with their dataset, depending on how you look at it) is:




It's disappointing (but not amazing) that even highly educated people like Surgeons General put their political or social biases ahead of what they must know is bad "science." It's good to bear in mind that we are all susceptible to doing that, but you have to wonder what the agenda is here. More brown people than white people will die if they aren't vaccinated?
 
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But it's Florida. I did some digging to confirm what I remember hearing about that guy, Ladapo. Google for stuff like surgeon general florida anti-mask and look at what reputable news sources have reported about him on that.

Here's a flavor:
 
But it's Florida. I did some digging to confirm what I remember hearing about that guy, Ladapo. Google for stuff like surgeon general florida anti-mask and look at what reputable news sources have reported about him on that.

Here's a flavor:
He definitely has an agenda.
 
So I'm automatically highly suspect of any COVID related news from Florida that casts down on any of the well known and accepted measures to reduce COVID risk, so after just a tiny bit of searching, found this great analysis of the Florida report.

In short, there's absolutely no reason to believe their conclusion, and IMO, they went digging into the data to find a way to get the conclusion they wanted.

Twitter:

Blog post with the Twitter thread:

So, as a physician and scientist, this person should really show data to back up her claims, not just give a "professional opinion".

We know, undisputed fact, that the vaccine causes increased myocarditis in younger men. That fact is not in dispute by anyone. It's not a stretch at all that that would result in at lease some deaths.


Now, my criticism of the study itself is:
1) it's a pilot study (i.e. small sample size) - but this in and of itself does not invalidate it
2) it's sample size is not powered to make conclusions (and the authors themselves point this out, as they should - and recommend a larger, deeper study).



TL;DR - there is enough data to suggest this could be real, and we need to study it in detail. We know that heart attacks partially stem from immune inflammation (also, long established), so a vaccine that causes cardiac inflammation at least in theory could increase risk. That's not a reason in and of itself to not be vaccinated, but in certain populations (young men with heart disease or prior cardiac events), it could be a reason for pause.
 
I can't believe I am doing this. But I must defend Florida to a degree. I have been very outspoken about the anti-science and anti-history actions of my state's government. There were many weeks when we led the country in cases per capita. In recent weeks our standings have gone way down. As of yesterday, according to metrics published daily in the Washington Post Florida is tied with Nevada for the states with the least number of cases per capita. Since every state on the Gulf Coast falls pretty low in the rankings I recognize environmental factors weigh heavily in these rankings, I still believe our governor is responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths in the 2 years this disease has been in the country. And I still believe the governor is doing all he can do to lessen reporting of real figures. But one cannot ignore current figures.