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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Fortunately the BMJ can fill in the gaps:
"Our estimate shows that university COVID-19 vaccine mandates are likely to cause net expected harms to young healthy adults—for each hospitalisation averted we estimate approximately 18.5 SAEs and 1430–4626 disruptions of daily activities—that is not outweighed by a proportionate public health benefit. Serious COVID-19 vaccine-associated harms are not adequately compensated for by current US vaccine injury systems. As such, these severe infringements of individual liberty and human rights are ethically unjustifiable."
Good times.
"Our estimate shows that university COVID-19 vaccine mandates are likely to cause net expected harms to young healthy adults—for each hospitalisation averted we estimate approximately 18.5 SAEs and 1430–4626 disruptions of daily activities—that is not outweighed by a proportionate public health benefit. Serious COVID-19 vaccine-associated harms are not adequately compensated for by current US vaccine injury systems. As such, these severe infringements of individual liberty and human rights are ethically unjustifiable."
Good times.
My wife and I as well as a number of friends fall into this category as well. We are cautious, but also rational about mask wearing.
During the height of things, we had PCR swab clinics, mostly staffed by PAs bless them. All day long sticking the brain tickler swabs into people's noses and having them cough right into their faces. All of them wearing N95s. None of them got Covid until their kids brought it home to them, if they had kids.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
What does this have to do with answering my question? I asked for the results of an experiment!
Feynman is rolling over in his grave, and shaking his head sadly.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Here is a crowd in Japan. I don't see a single N95 and I see at least 2 people with the mask below their nose.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Related to my prev post on XBB.1.5: Coronavirus
Supposedly XBB.1.5 (dark blue; XBB light purple) is being broken out (or added?) tomorrow and chart "retroactively" being updated.
12/24/2022
12/31/2022
Supposedly XBB.1.5 (dark blue; XBB light purple) is being broken out (or added?) tomorrow and chart "retroactively" being updated.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
12/24/2022
12/31/2022
DanCar
Active Member
Lots of people upset on the internet, does it matter? Be nice if we could be more scientific rather than emotion.
DanCar
Active Member
Is it the next big bad cold / flu? Understand it is worse for the elderly, unhealthy, and those that don't take care of themselves. Yes we need to take it very seriously. Few enjoy a bad cold.Eric Feigl-Ding said:NEXT BIG ONE—CDC has royally screwed up—unreleased data shows #XBB15, a super variant, surged to 40% US (CDC unreported for weeks!) & now causing hospitalization surges in NY/NE.XBB15–a new recombinant strain—is both more immune evasive & better at infecting than #BQ & XBB.
Two of my co-workers got sick with a bad cold, according to them. 25-30 years old. I worked from home and feel I've dodged a bullet. I encourage others to work from home also during the typical winter surge. I'm also glad my company is still taking steps to reduce viral sharing. For example they recently door stopped the bathroom doors to eliminate a common contact point.
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It is causing increasing cases and increasing hospitalizations.
It becomes a problem for everyone if hospital access is restricted. Say you need a hip replacement or a heart transplant, or are involved in an MVA, staffing shortages due to illness and bed shortages affect your care.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
There are immunocompromised folks as well. If people have a family member or people close to them they are not so flippant.
Part of the concern it that the more who are infect then the higher change of it changing into a "worse" variant, and that could affect us all.
The booster uptake is pretty low so people that were "fully vaccinated" are getting less "tolerant" from my reading/understanding.
See How Vaccinations Are Going in Your County and State
See where doses have gone, and who is eligible for a shot in each state.
www.nytimes.com
A better copy of the latest CDC variant estimates showing XBB 1.5 at 40%:
A random thought. Many on here are talking about vaccine efficacy. And they are talking about it in different countries. Since different countries uses different vaccines (I know there is some crossover) i have to wonder if this discussion means anything. And I have to wonder if JUC is saying all of the different vaccines are killing people or just some of them.
I'm pretty sure the discussion you are referring to is religious in nature. Pearls before swine sort of thing.
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scottf200
Well-Known Member
FYI, they updated it to include XBB.1.5 today after my post happened.
Here is the corresponding pie chart. I'm pretty surprised the Midwest is still so low (2nd lowest). Chicagoland has a lot of people and airport traffic.
PACEMD
Active Member
It means very little other than the nature of our own human dysfunction. We have as a society become cavalier, careless, thrown disruptive caution overboard, four sheets slaughtered by the wind, we have become sick of all of this and are becoming sick from all of this.
This is currently the first significant viral season we have seen since covid raised its indomitable little fuzzy head. Those covid years were just that, covid. People died, constantly, consistently, and without season. In those years we saw very little to no influenza, croup, rsv, and blah blah blah all the many many other sessional viruses we don't for practical reasons even bother to test for. This year we are virally overrun, covid just one of the equal-opportunity players. And it is just the beginning of the season.
Constantly, all day long in emergency, 2-month-olds to 100+ year-olds, variable viral symptoms, more upper respiratory than other, a high percent testing positive for influenza, covid, rsv, because that's what we are testing for. But doesn't really matter, no real treatment for any of the viruses, stomp on the symptoms and do that in-house if you need a bigfoot. Point is, this is the first bad other viral season since covid came to town. That said, we on the front line would take this over the covid years in a heartbeat, and thank the gods we still have one.
Speculation as to how and why covid has been currently tamed and the reemergence with a vengeance of the classic viral seasons is mostly meaningless. Clearly, masks, immunizations, isolation, and transmission precautions are the big ones. Anyone who suggests otherwise is a straight-up fool. History will call their delicate little asses out for a showing. Debates among the amateurs, the imposter professionals, those with personal gains, and those idle and intellectually impoverished, are only a sideshow, step right up, the bearded lady wants a hug. The fat lady is never going to sing.
So reality is the real loser, a persistent undertone of anxiety and uncertainty in our patients, a conspiracy of covid, influenza, and rsv joining forces to conquer the world, in collusion with the Russians and Chinese no doubt, financed by the pharmaceutical cartels, controlled and fine-tuned via the covid chips, all orchestrated no doubt by Musk. Musk who will ride it all out on Mars........
DanCar
Active Member
Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population
Age Infection Survival Rate
0-19 99.9997%
20-29 99.997%
30-39 99.989%
40-49 99.965%
50-59 99.871%
60-69 99.499%
Article comes across as having a bias / agenda due to not involving elderly population as much.
Peer reviewed article from Stanford and others.
Age Infection Survival Rate
0-19 99.9997%
20-29 99.997%
30-39 99.989%
40-49 99.965%
50-59 99.871%
60-69 99.499%
Article comes across as having a bias / agenda due to not involving elderly population as much.
Peer reviewed article from Stanford and others.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Looks like roughly half the rates that Marc Bevand published/estimated from literature a couple years ago. Plus they have a bit steeper slope I think (4x per decade rather than 3x - which makes it seem less hazardous for the young but worse for the old).
His model ended up with 0.7% applied to US population. IFR can vary by about 10x between countries (best to worst) due to age differences.
GitHub - mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr: Calculates the age-stratified infection fatality ratio (IFR) of COVID-19
Calculates the age-stratified infection fatality ratio (IFR) of COVID-19 - mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr
github.com
Seems like this sort of analysis can get whatever you want (plus there is large variation country to country as they say) but in any case their answer is also still truly horrific. It’s what we experienced without vaccination. These are still very bad numbers.
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