The Cadillac PHEV won't be on sale in the USA until 2017. _2017_! If they were releasing it now, there'd be reason for excitement, since it'll be a PHEV with decent size, range and usable all-EV capability, but just think what the Supercharger network is going to look like in 2017! And by that time you're also closing in on the Model 3 release.
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The Cadillac PHEV won't be on sale in the USA until 2017. _2017_! If they were releasing it now, there'd be reason for excitement, since it'll be a PHEV with decent size, range and usable all-EV capability, but just think what the Supercharger network is going to look like in 2017! And by that time you're also closing in on the Model 3 release.
I hope merc/bmw/audi/porsche will be able to build incredible EV's with +250mi range, but this will be difficult with the attitude the author has. For an
EV to compete w/Tesla the german autos need to accept a new car design from the ground up, start fresh, and they are reluctant to do so. The author needs to accept this reality first.
EV to compete w/Tesla the german autos need to accept a new car design from the ground up, start fresh, and they are reluctant to do so. The author needs to accept this reality first.
Mayhemm
Model S P85+ "Lola"
As I and others have said repeatedly in the past; we will never see a serious EV program from any of the traditional OEMs as long at they're chained to ICEs. It represents a huge conflict of interest. They cannot talk up EVs without talking down ICEs, which make up the bulk of their fleets.
You may one day see a low-volume OEM (like Porsche) just drop ICEs altogether and commit to using their experience and resources to produce several truly great EVs...but that's not likely to happen soon.
You may one day see a low-volume OEM (like Porsche) just drop ICEs altogether and commit to using their experience and resources to produce several truly great EVs...but that's not likely to happen soon.
brucet999
Active Member
One part of the story does ring true to me.
The German luxury marques are all expert at producing refined interior comfort and luxury as well as well-developed TACC-type functions, and they have the advantage of shared cost of the hugely greater production volume of their ICE models to do so cost-effectively. Volkswagen showed the way in building a new platform on which they now produce EV, gasoline and diesel versions of the Golf, all on the same production line, thus making the cost of the body, frame and interior of the eGolf lower than would be possible with a distinct and separate EV design and production line. Add to that the vastly greater engineering resources, purchasing power and credibility with outside suppliers and the public, and they could let Tesla do the hard work of proving the BEV concept and then get into the game late with good battery/power train combinations and steal the market from Tesla.
If they really want to, that is.
The German luxury marques are all expert at producing refined interior comfort and luxury as well as well-developed TACC-type functions, and they have the advantage of shared cost of the hugely greater production volume of their ICE models to do so cost-effectively. Volkswagen showed the way in building a new platform on which they now produce EV, gasoline and diesel versions of the Golf, all on the same production line, thus making the cost of the body, frame and interior of the eGolf lower than would be possible with a distinct and separate EV design and production line. Add to that the vastly greater engineering resources, purchasing power and credibility with outside suppliers and the public, and they could let Tesla do the hard work of proving the BEV concept and then get into the game late with good battery/power train combinations and steal the market from Tesla.
If they really want to, that is.
Has an established, old guard company ever stolen the market from a succesful disruptor? This sounds like the classic "We have them right where we want them!" joke.
You're assuming that EVs and ICEs should be designed the same way. With the Model S, Tesla showed that that isn't true. There's also the question of when economies of scale in manufacturing are exhausted; given the scale of modern car assembly operations, I'd say it's somewhere around 500,000 vehicles/year, which is where Tesla will be in 2020.
While Tesla has a lot to learn about interior refinements, everyone else has a lot to learn about software. Oh, and batteries, battery thermal management, and EV drivetrains. Software is harder to get right than interiors. Batteries are harder to get right than interiors. Advantage, Tesla.
That said, I'm under no illusions that Tesla will be the world's only auto manufacturer in 2025, having pushed out all the incumbents. That's not going to happen. I do think that Tesla can take and hold a 5 percent global market share, putting them at 3.6 MM vehicles/year. Add to that a $10 B/year energy storage business, and Tesla looks pretty well set up for the next decade.
The problem is brands being tied to ICE, and the value of brand.
A company like Daimler AG, who own the Mercedes Benz brand marque which is tied to ICE.
Daimler has all the know how to make excellent vehicles that can compete today with Tesla S. Fact. They just need to put it under a different brand marque so as not to compete with MBenz.
They could spin out a new upstart "electrical propulsion company", with a new brand to avoid any confusion and conflicted dealership models...
Daimler-Epic could produce the "Evolute Msport Z" ... on an existing MBenz production line, tomorrow. Slaps a E logo on the hood. Electric vehicle that competes with SLS AMG. Web sales only! Would you buy one?
I'd certainly take it for a spin.
A company like Daimler AG, who own the Mercedes Benz brand marque which is tied to ICE.
Daimler has all the know how to make excellent vehicles that can compete today with Tesla S. Fact. They just need to put it under a different brand marque so as not to compete with MBenz.
They could spin out a new upstart "electrical propulsion company", with a new brand to avoid any confusion and conflicted dealership models...
Daimler-Epic could produce the "Evolute Msport Z" ... on an existing MBenz production line, tomorrow. Slaps a E logo on the hood. Electric vehicle that competes with SLS AMG. Web sales only! Would you buy one?
I'd certainly take it for a spin.
ShadowyRealm
Member
The same thing that happened to the smart phone market is going to happen in the car market, only in slow motion. Right now, Tesla is Apple, who just introduced the iPhone. At the time, there was nothing like it, and all of the competitors were frantically and quietly either building "iPhone killers" or protecting their declining hegemony with clumsy attempts to legitimize their various outmoded business models. RIM, Motorola and Nokia are now shadows of their former selves.
The automobile business differs only in the magnitude of price points and the length of time before "Google" builds the "Android" and begins to chip away at the market hegemony of the dominant players.
The car market will be very different in 2025, but most of the manufacturers and dealers are in public denial. Those who internalize that denial will not survive.
The automobile business differs only in the magnitude of price points and the length of time before "Google" builds the "Android" and begins to chip away at the market hegemony of the dominant players.
The car market will be very different in 2025, but most of the manufacturers and dealers are in public denial. Those who internalize that denial will not survive.
I think you are correct that big brands have a vested interest in ICE cars and doing anything off that line risks confusing their message, however I think your proposed solution might actually accelerate the inevitable. There seems to be a misguided assumption with many auto journalists and others that there is only room for 5 or 6 big car brands worldwide. That was fine for our grandparents, but our children care much less about brand loyalty and much more about "cool" factor. Our current generation (you and I) will suffer through the churn of transition, but our children will wonder why this discussion even took place. They aren't interested in mass market products at all, but seek to surround themselves with things that make them an individual.
Look at the music industry up to the late 90's, which was dominated by a handful of record labels. Now the notion of a record label is falling by the wayside - my son is a music producer with a professional studio in his house that is for hire by anyone who wants to record a song. That would have been nearly impossible 20 years ago, but that industry is now on the trailing edge of change and it happened in spite of the traditional stakeholders trying to maintain control.
As ShadowRealm points out the car industry is next, but moves a lot slower. But look at the number of boutique auto manufacturers that have grown out of garages in the past 15 years - including Tesla. None of them are trying to be the next Toyota because that's not what the next generation is going care about.
It's going to take a while and Tesla may not be a company that survives, but they have lain the groundwork to fragment the old established auto industry - the last of the industrial-age dinosaurs. What Tesla has done, that big auto is fearing most, is to show every future auto entrepreneur that once electric powertains are a commodity, the rest of a car is just a bunch of bent metal and cheap electronics. Like the recording industry, the auto industry will come to terms with no longer maintaining a stranglehold on buyers just because they build an ICE with a unique power curve or fuel economy.
In the end it isn't that any of the big brands don't have the money and know-how to produce a Tesla-like car, but they'll have trouble to sell it because the emerging generation won't be interested in conformity. I could have bought a Prius or a Volt but didn't in a large part because I didn't want a Toyota or Chevy. It had nothing to do with capability or features. I bought a Tesla specifically because it helps make me unique.
Forget about our German journalists, the most of them still have German angst.
The only thing he is right about is the problem with driving at higher speed over a long time at the autobahn, is the only weakness. But some years from now Tesla will still be the only one who can solve this with higher battery capacity, while German carmakers aren't in battery development. And hybrids are no solution.
So take them easy, the informed people in Germany who don't listen to the press, support tesla. But it still needs time.
The only thing he is right about is the problem with driving at higher speed over a long time at the autobahn, is the only weakness. But some years from now Tesla will still be the only one who can solve this with higher battery capacity, while German carmakers aren't in battery development. And hybrids are no solution.
So take them easy, the informed people in Germany who don't listen to the press, support tesla. But it still needs time.
I think many people underestimate the challenges involved in battery engineering. Tesla has invested heavily in R&D on both battery chemistry and support functions, building a substantial lead in battery technology. Treating batteries as a commodity that you can just purchase instead of a core competence is never going to get major automakers parity with Tesla.
voyager
Active Member
Unlike many of its rivals, BMW decided to do its plug-in cars properly by developing standalone platforms for the i3 and i8. The result was the creation of two excellent plug-in cars, the i3 and i8, which have left positive impressions with consumers at opposite ends of the luxury car spectrum. The BMW i5 is slotted to fill the gap between the i3 and i8, and rumor has it that Bimmer’s Model S fighter could make its debut as early as 2018, rather than 2020 as earlier rumors suggested. BMW i5 Could Arrive As Tesla Rival By 2018 - Gas 2
...and layout. Batteries under the floor, motors next to the axles. Seems obvious but is anyone else actually doing it?
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Android's advantage over iPhone was its openness. If Tesla makes the move to be open enough, Tesla could outflank that threat. (Tesla shows some signs of odoing this but other signs of being hopelessly "walled garden" mentality).
Oh dear. Where to begin. Let's leave it at some notes:
- It's not what you don't know that gets you. It's what you know, but just ain't so. This has traditionally hurt many traditional players and it has hurt the German car industry already, at least progress-wise. They think they know and that's a problem.
- mwulff also makes great points Tesla gets software a lot better than the Germans. Of course this silicone valley story already played out in mobile telephony with disruptively destructive force. Now, Tesla's threat could be another silicone valley player...
- Robert.Boston with great point about EVs and ICEs not optimally being designed the same way, as my signature revelation told me, the magic starts when you stop doing that. That's the difference with a disruptive player. They don't know how a car must be built. They are free to dream. Tesla did.
- From a long-time lover of German car-making, and one who used to drive almost exclusively them, I opine the Vorsprung is in Tesla's corner at the moment. This article was absolute rubbish.
All this said, I expect the German's to recover at some point. But not before ceding way too much ground to Tesla. It didn't have to be.
- It's not what you don't know that gets you. It's what you know, but just ain't so. This has traditionally hurt many traditional players and it has hurt the German car industry already, at least progress-wise. They think they know and that's a problem.
- mwulff also makes great points Tesla gets software a lot better than the Germans. Of course this silicone valley story already played out in mobile telephony with disruptively destructive force. Now, Tesla's threat could be another silicone valley player...
- Robert.Boston with great point about EVs and ICEs not optimally being designed the same way, as my signature revelation told me, the magic starts when you stop doing that. That's the difference with a disruptive player. They don't know how a car must be built. They are free to dream. Tesla did.
- From a long-time lover of German car-making, and one who used to drive almost exclusively them, I opine the Vorsprung is in Tesla's corner at the moment. This article was absolute rubbish.
All this said, I expect the German's to recover at some point. But not before ceding way too much ground to Tesla. It didn't have to be.
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MrBoylan
Member
Sure! Just look at the vast success of the Zune media player from Microsoft. It completely destroyed Apple!
SmartElectric
Active Member
All of these have battery under cabin:
Nissan Leaf
Smart ED
Mercedes B Class ED
Toyota Rav 4 EV
Kia Soul EV
Mitsubishi iMiEV
Honda Fit EV
Fiat 500e
...
These additionally have electric motor between rear axle and inverter beside :
Smart ED
Mitsubishi iMiEV
Smart ED had this layout in Gen I before Model S was released.
Still - independent of the battery location, very few EVs actually are able to provide the frame hugging skateboard Model S does (which I count as including the motor, chargers etc)..
It really is a marvel how little space Tesla's motor(s) and chargers, for instance, take.
It isn't just about the batteries.
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For example, here is the 500e platform - not a skateboard by any measure:
And I'd argue it isn't just because it is a small car. A big part of it is, it is build like an ICE car - lets put the motor where the engine is and the batteries where the transmission, fuel and exhaust used to go...
MrBoylan
Member
Yes, but even with Samsung and Google behind Android, Apple continues to thrive. There are serious advantages to being a first mover, assuming you can get through the early days, which Tesla appears to be doing.
Agreed.
Even worse, Google makes NOTHING from Android. Nothing. Even the mobile ad revenue on Android pales in comparison to their iOS sourced revenue. It's not an apt comparison at all. It's not like someone is going to release an open-source hardware car platform as a stopgap against Tesla.
3s-a-charm
Active Member
It could be theorized that Elon wants to promote other brands to produce electric cars so he can supply electric car batteries?
I never understood why BMW/Audi/Mercedes don't just redesign the Tesla "skateboard" platform as the patents are all open - and put a luxury car body on it? IMO that would be a serious win for the car industry.
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