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OD: MYLR - White/White/No FSD; EDD: July 2022.
Some observations, seeing your signature for delivery of your cars. I think Tesla has a major mismatch in their output and demand. M3LR and MYP are overproduced. MYLR are massively underproduced compared to demand. I know eventually Austin and Berlin will help when they come online. It will be 6 months before either factory reaches even half of installed capacity. But if Tesla management had changed the product mix at Fremont, they need not have put all their hopes on these 2 plants. Out of fear MYP demand will go down, they have reduced the price difference from $10k in the beginning of the year to just $5k, making the MYP an excellent buy compared to an MYLR for those who live in warmer climes. So by overproducing MYP's Elon Musk is giving away some Tesla profits, so they can continue to manufacture cars that allows them to keep avoiding matching MYLR production to demand. New bookings of MYLR's have come down dramatically since November hiding even more the actual demand for MYLR, thereby allowing management to justify not doing the hard work. I spent a decade in Automotive manufacturing and I do see that this approach is more common in non Japanese manufacturing companies. Lean pull type manufacturing systems allow quick change of product mix to match consumer demand.
 
From history on this thread (I’ve been on since May), there’s a difference if you put your order on hold before VIN vs after VIN. You sorta go to the back of the line if the car was on hold before VIN and you sorta go close to front of the line if the car was on hold after VIN. That’s been the bulk of the experience over the months but of course there are times when that hasn’t been the case. Tesla also changes processes on the fly so who knows what the actual process is. SAs unfortunately are not reliable sources of information.
I went on hold in November after VIN and came off hold on Monday. My EDD now says 1/1-1/29. It was TBD for a couple of days
Well, I went on hold before a VIN and will be coming off in about a week, so I'll give everybody an update then. I'll be hoping for April or May, but whatever it is I'll make it work even if I have to just pay cash for it. But I'd really, really rather not.
 
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Well, I went on hold before a VIN and will be coming off in about a week, so I'll give everybody an update then. I'll be hoping for April or May, but whatever it is I'll make it work even if I have to just pay cash for it. But I'd really, really rather not.
In some respects, waiting a little longer is better.
Tesla MY will be getting updates shortly that will be to your advantage - 5 or 10% lower weight biggest among them, WORTH 2-400LBS.
 
Some observations, seeing your signature for delivery of your cars. I think Tesla has a major mismatch in their output and demand. M3LR and MYP are overproduced. MYLR are massively underproduced compared to demand. I know eventually Austin and Berlin will help when they come online. It will be 6 months before either factory reaches even half of installed capacity. But if Tesla management had changed the product mix at Fremont, they need not have put all their hopes on these 2 plants. Out of fear MYP demand will go down, they have reduced the price difference from $10k in the beginning of the year to just $5k, making the MYP an excellent buy compared to an MYLR for those who live in warmer climes. So by overproducing MYP's Elon Musk is giving away some Tesla profits, so they can continue to manufacture cars that allows them to keep avoiding matching MYLR production to demand. New bookings of MYLR's have come down dramatically since November hiding even more the actual demand for MYLR, thereby allowing management to justify not doing the hard work. I spent a decade in Automotive manufacturing and I do see that this approach is more common in non Japanese manufacturing companies. Lean pull type manufacturing systems allow quick change of product mix to match consumer demand.
I would argue that Tesla makes more profit margin on the MYP than the MYLR.
They are virtually identical.

I also don't believe Tesla has a crystal ball on their demand. Far from it.
Their production planning is a best guess, mostly informed by their product margins and supplier capabilities.

Traditional OEMs have a longer history and competitive position, plus marketing/advertising to drive demand for what they need to dump.
Tesla doesn't advertise, smartly leverages Online Blogs and Hype to push their products, and up until recently, bends over backwards to support their base.
 
I would argue that Tesla makes more profit margin on the MYP than the MYLR.
They are virtually identical.

I also don't believe Tesla has a crystal ball on their demand. Far from it.
Their production planning is a best guess, mostly informed by their product margins and supplier capabilities.

Traditional OEMs have a longer history and competitive position, plus marketing/advertising to drive demand for what they need to dump.
Tesla doesn't advertise, smartly leverages Online Blogs and Hype to push their products, and up until recently, bends over backwards to support their base.
Clearly reducing the price difference in MYP and MYLR from $10k to $5k for whatever reason, they decided to throw away their MYP profit. The only reason they have reduced the premium on MYP is their inability to match MYLR production to demand. So, throwing away the $5k MYP profit, is not out of the goodness of their heart but their inflexibility to decrease MYP production and increase MYLR production. They would have unsold MYP if they increase MYP price by an additional $5K. Right now, they are benefiting from MYLR buyers deciding not to wait many more months and decide to go for an MYP by paying $5k more even if that car does not meet their needs as much as an MYLR. If I lived in a non-snowy area, I would have considered an MYP.
 
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Clearly reducing the price difference in MYP and MYLR from $10k to $5k for whatever reason, they decided to throw away their MYP profit. The only reason they have reduced the premium on MYP is their inability to match MYLR production to demand. So, throwing away the $5k MYP profit, is not out of the goodness of their heart but their inflexibility to decrease MYP production and increase MYLR production. They would have unsold MYP if they increase MYP price by an additional $5K. Right now, they are benefiting from MYLR buyers deciding not to wait many more months and decide to go for an MYP by paying $5k more even if that car does not meet their needs as much as an MYLR. If I lived in a non-snowy area, I would have considered an MYP.
I agree they're making the MYP more attractive.
And again think the two variants are virtually the same, so they're not giving much up.
They can only make so many MY of either spec, regardless, so have decided to make more profit on the the more popular MYLR.
The cars are so much the same in hardware. What's different? The wheels, and a minor motor difference, which are not production limiters.
 
I agree they're making the MYP more attractive.
And again think the two variants are virtually the same, so they're not giving much up.
They can only make so many MY of either spec, regardless, so have decided to make more profit on the the more popular MYLR.
The cars are so much the same in hardware. What's different? The wheels, and a minor motor difference, which are not production limiters.
Breaks, headlights, spoiler. Suspension. But yes it’s not much difference. BUT given how both are close in price and MYP arrives sooner, I can see why many prefer MYP Vs Lr
 
Clearly reducing the price difference in MYP and MYLR from $10k to $5k for whatever reason, they decided to throw away their MYP profit. The only reason they have reduced the premium on MYP is their inability to match MYLR production to demand. So, throwing away the $5k MYP profit, is not out of the goodness of their heart but their inflexibility to decrease MYP production and increase MYLR production. They would have unsold MYP if they increase MYP price by an additional $5K. Right now, they are benefiting from MYLR buyers deciding not to wait many more months and decide to go for an MYP by paying $5k more even if that car does not meet their needs as much as an MYLR. If I lived in a non-snowy area, I would have considered an MYP.
Part of the reason for the MYLR price increases was to reduce demand so they can catch up with orders. There’s still a wait with MYP so they don’t really have them sitting around. They only prioritize their build when one is ordered.
Also the differences between LR and P aren’t that significant cost wise to Tesla. The extra power is really a software config, The base price is high enough for them to make extra profit and that’s why they didn’t change the price much on the P but ultimately, they really wanted to slow demand for LR and looks like it’s working.
Prices will likely come down a bit with 4680 and they’ll say it’s because 4680 is cheaper to produce but really, they are just coming back down to previous price points.
The thing too is, the price will probably never come down to the price in May or July. It’s been at least a $4K increase since July. If they drop $2K on the price, they are locking in extra profits since 4680 and new castings are actually cheaper than the price as of July.
 
Part of the reason for the MYLR price increases was to reduce demand so they can catch up with orders. There’s still a wait with MYP so they don’t really have them sitting around. They only prioritize their build when one is ordered.
Also the differences between LR and P aren’t that significant cost wise to Tesla. The extra power is really a software config, The base price is high enough for them to make extra profit and that’s why they didn’t change the price much on the P but ultimately, they really wanted to slow demand for LR and looks like it’s working.
Prices will likely come down a bit with 4680 and they’ll say it’s because 4680 is cheaper to produce but really, they are just coming back down to previous price points.
The thing too is, the price will probably never come down to the price in May or July. It’s been at least a $4K increase since July. If they drop $2K on the price, they are locking in extra profits since 4680 and new castings are actually cheaper than the price as of July.
People that keep saying prices will come down make me laugh. Their demand is so high that on some cars it is almost a year wait. Prices are not coming down in the near future if EVER. You don't lower prices when you can't even come close to keeping up with current demand. It just doesn't happen in business. So my advise for those waiting for these new lower prices, go buy a Prius. It ain't happening.
 
People that keep saying prices will come down make me laugh. Their demand is so high that on some cars it is almost a year wait. Prices are not coming down in the near future if EVER. You don't lower prices when you can't even come close to keeping up with current demand. It just doesn't happen in business. So my advise for those waiting for these new lower prices, go buy a Prius. It ain't happening.

As they say, never say never. Things can quickly change. Tesla's demand and list prices in China's are on a downward trend. $%it happens.
 
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People that keep saying prices will come down make me laugh. Their demand is so high that on some cars it is almost a year wait. Prices are not coming down in the near future if EVER. You don't lower prices when you can't even come close to keeping up with current demand. It just doesn't happen in business. So my advise for those waiting for these new lower prices, go buy a Prius. It ain't happening.
Prices will change and quick.. Today there isn't that much of a choice out there , tesla is delivering more EV's then everyone else combined ( in the US) and they are proven.

So many NEW ev's shown in 2021 for a 2022 release and even more will be announced in 2022 . Many of them much nicer looking inside and more features then the Teslas.

Tesla is going to need to increase their options for people if they want to stay on top.
 
Received VIN about midnight last night!! 7SAYGDEE4NF3407** EDD is now Dec 25-Dec 30. I wonder if Tesla is open Christmas Day (hopefully not for the employees)? Would be pretty cool to pickup today though !
I’ve been watching this forum since at least June while we waited on wife’s car, so it’s been quite the ride in here. Learned a lot of great info, from a lot of interesting people. Wishing everyone the best with their cars, and in the new year!

Merry Christmas Y’all!!!
 
I stated “in the near future”. Folks here and on FB think when the new batteries come out the prices are magically going down because they cost less. No way no how. Until like mentioned above more competition, much greater capacity and the slow down of demand the prices aren’t coming down. Why would they. Sure never say never. Put don’t see current line up decreasing. Having said that I do believe they will launch an all new cheaper variant but don’t think the current ones are going down just because they will cost less to make.
 
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People that keep saying prices will come down make me laugh. Their demand is so high that on some cars it is almost a year wait. Prices are not coming down in the near future if EVER. You don't lower prices when you can't even come close to keeping up with current demand. It just doesn't happen in business. So my advise for those waiting for these new lower prices, go buy a Prius. It ain't happening.
I think the prices of Tesla cars will come down in time, but NOT anytime soon. The demand is too high and the competition can't lower prices like Tesla can due to much lower profit margins. However, as economies of scale ramp up in the EV industry, the costs of making EV's will drop substantially across the market, and as production volumes increase the supply will meet the demand thus lowering sale prices.

It happens with all new disruptive tech ramps, and it will happen with EV's too. Just not for many, many years yet.
 
Yep, it's a perfect storm of not enough Tesla production, fear of missing out psychology, slow out of the gate competition, helicopter money, ridiculously low interest rates, and until now little to no inflation. Economic cycles will play out with higher interest rates, more expensive loans, higher taxes, less disposable income, lower auto sales #'s, ....
 
Merry Christmas everyone! Just as a quick word of caution when you get to this point, make sure you double check your VIN number before uploading your insurance. My VIN actually changed from the time it was initially assigned to the time I was going to upload my insurance a couple days later. I didn't receive any communication from Tesla about it (of course), so I called them to figure out what it was all about. Supposedly, the vehicle with the initial VIN was "damaged" and couldn't be easily fixed, so they reassigned me a new one.