Delay in model X launch?

[AnOutsider]

Respectfully , when someone doesn't abide by an NDA it tells us a lot about that person's trustworthiness. And if they're not breaking an NDA, then the information is (at best) suspect.

No pitchfork here, if the information has any truth to it, it's missing context. And I don't mind waiting a bit more, so -shrug-. But I think the topic of NDAs is valid and speaks to the veracity of the OP.

Perhaps, but the guy in Michigan broke NDA (perhaps an implied one), as did the leaker before about the nose code and the crossbeam.Can't speak for others, but I gobbled that info right up and didn't care about the character of the individual bringing it. It was exciting new tidbits during a very dark time for X info.

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

 

[woof]

Perhaps, but the guy in Michigan broke NDA (perhaps an implied one), as did the leaker before about the nose code and the crossbeam.Can't speak for others, but I gobbled that info right up and didn't care about the character of the individual bringing it. It was exciting new tidbits during a very dark time for X info.

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

The difference is artifacts (photos, plans) vs written speculation. The NDA's of those others was also discussed, but less needed to be known about their character because it wasn't their words we had to trust.

 

[ohmman]

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

I would say this. The Michigan guy was criticized heavily, NDA breaching was brought up, and people felt sorry for him because he posted actual, traceable photos. And tracing him was pretty easy, as it turned out. That's different from a text-only posting, because photos are concrete evidence. Text has a range of believability to it, and I'd say that if the posting falls on the less believable side of that range, people are going to push back. From my view, that's what's happening here.

I think that there are some believable pieces to this posting, but the way it was presented was off-putting, so the reaction is as I'd expect. Just my thoughts.

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Cross-posted with woof, who was more concise. Glad we agree, anyway!

 

[NigelM]

It was exciting new tidbits during a very dark time for X info.

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

Perhaps because this guy is bringing darkness in a time of tidbits?

 

[walla2]

I have had this prediction about getting out press cars and founders and only making a few Xs this year for a long time. I don't know if the OP has a credible source or not but this would be a common assumption based on continued missed dates from the company, but even the S had cars out to the founders by this time in 2012. My signature was supposed to come in July 2012. It didnt until the first week of December. If my car was finished in July, they would've likely replaced everything in it by now so probaby good they got more right. Still true.

Sure Tesla has improved some but has Tesla improved enough to make the critical dates? Unlikely. Will it matter much. No. We want quality cars not ev junk that will turn the public away even more than the gas industry and Texas try to do.

 

[MartinAustin]

IMO the OP is exactly the kind of chap who likes to go onto a forum under cover of anonymity, make some posts, and watch responses. That's all it is. Nothing concrete to worry about. I expect deliveries before to October 1st, i.e., inside Q3.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

I agree, less pitchforks please.

I don't find it odd though, because this behavior is a common response here, but I agree we should spend more time weighing what was said than attacks on character.

NDAs get broken all the time on the Internet as in person too. That itself doesn't tell anything on the reliability of the information. Now, what makes this info a little suspect to me is the way the story (question, details, locations) has evolved. The story is more odd than the September or Twitpic leaksters.

 

[NigelM]

I really don't see lashing out or pitchforks, but folks questioning the odd way that someone professes inside information and seemingly identifies himself (to Tesla at least). Anyway, out of interest, what has the OP actually told us....

Says he has inside information that Model X will be later than some think with few cars in 2015; components not all finalized yet and some suppliers not geared up till Q4; he wouldn't buy an early vehicle.

Well, plenty of folks here are already anticipating limited numbers of cars (especially in Q3) this year; there's also folks who don't want an early VIN because they'd like to feel production is bedded in first.

Nothing new then.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I really don't see lashing out or pitchforks, but folks questioning the odd way that someone professes inside information and seemingly identifies himself (to Tesla at least). Anyway, out of interest, what has the OP actually told us....

Says he has inside information that Model X will be later than some think with few cars in 2015; components not all finalized yet and some suppliers not geared up till Q4; he wouldn't buy an early vehicle.

Well, plenty of folks here are already anticipating limited numbers of cars (especially in Q3) this year; there's also folks who don't want an early VIN because they'd like to feel production is bedded in first.

Nothing new then.

I would have to say my impression of the majority of TMC expectations was a few thousand Model X in 2015, the logic was that with all the gained experience they would be able to ramp this up much faster than Model S. If it turns out to be a few hundred in 2015 instead like the OP says, they the OP certainly has reset some of our expectations. I would say that, as a claim, is new. Speculation of course has taken many paths.

Of course OP can be totally wrong and/or a troll. I guess we shall see.

 

[NigelM]

I would have to say my impression of the majority of TMC expectations was a few thousand Model X in 2015, the logic was that with all the gained experience they would be able to ramp this up much faster than Model S. If it turns out to be a few hundred in 2015 instead like the OP says, they the OP certainly has reset some of our expectations.

The expectations for 2015 deliveries were guided by Tesla, but anyone with more than a passing interest in the company will know that they've always been very optimistic in their time planning; that makes us frustrated at times but it's their great enthusiasm and desire to move forward that draws us to them in the first place.

Hoping for several thousand deliveries in 2015 is one thing, expecting it is perhaps somewhat naive.

 

[InTheShadows]

I would have to say my impression of the majority of TMC expectations was a few thousand Model X in 2015, the logic was that with all the gained experience they would be able to ramp this up much faster than Model S. If it turns out to be a few hundred in 2015 instead like the OP says, they the OP certainly has reset some of our expectations. I would say that, as a claim, is new. Speculation of course has taken many paths.

Of course OP can be totally wrong and/or a troll. I guess we shall see.

I agree. So with the new info I was originally expecting 3000 MX this year. So now I'll just cut that in half and expect 1500. After reading all of the meaningful post in this thread I'm putting the likelihood of this at 50/50.

This will probably matter to short term traders, however if the MX is a stunning hit (which I fully expect) within 6 months it won't matter.

Even if the original post is true and at the earnings call Elon says we will only be delivering 100 MX this year because we changed the falcon design again and the seat company isn't ramping fast enough and we need to go to Walmart to buy USB cables. Everyone would have quite a let down.

Then 4 weeks later Bonnie gets her MX and it does 0-60 in 3.3 with mpge of 80 and has features we never even speculated about. The slower than anticipated ramp will be completely overshadowed and Tesla's brand awareness doubles again.

IMO the MX is going to spell disaster for every SUV that cost more than $50k. And it will be an extremely compelling alternative to SUV buyers of $40-50k vehicles.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The expectations for 2015 deliveries were guided by Tesla, but anyone with more than a passing interest in the company will know that they've always been very optimistic in their time planning; that makes us frustrated at times but it's their great enthusiasm and desire to move forward that draws us to them in the first place.

Hoping for several thousand deliveries in 2015 is one thing, expecting it is perhaps somewhat naive.

No argument from me on Tesla's optimism. I guess that is, in effect, the OP's point too. If he/she is sincere, OP seemed somewhat annoyed by that public facade.

That said, it certainly was my impression that a few thousand Model X in 2015 was more an expectation than hope - on average - on TMC discussions, but I admit I have no scientific measurement of it. If OP knows something, then what he/she posted seems pretty much news to me, although I'd agree not very unlikely news given Tesla's history.

Anyway, the OP sounded suspect to me in certain ways, so I'm not taking their word for granted at all. Interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[mzpolo]

Friendly advice: it's not possible to get inside the door at Fremont without signing an NDA (heck, even for a customer tour!) so you should probably be careful with the information you've been sharing.

My wife and I didn't sign a thing when we got a personal factory tour in September of last year. I brought the delivery team to see my ship, with a 20,000 Hp electric motor and they brought me behind the scenes of everything but the sheet metal stamping area. Got to say hello to the engineers on the floor, the folks on the line and get inside the lines while on the line.
Not a single question about an NDA.
that said.... even with that level tour, the opportunity to get insider information is so limited its silly.

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The expectations for 2015 deliveries were guided by Tesla, but anyone with more than a passing interest in the company will know that they've always been very optimistic in their time planning; that makes us frustrated at times but it's their great enthusiasm and desire to move forward that draws us to them in the first place.

Hoping for several thousand deliveries in 2015 is one thing, expecting it is perhaps somewhat naïve.

Agreed!!! I reserved about 20 months ago and we hope to have delivery this year. We do not expect it. The original assertion that a small amount of vehicles will be delivered is realistic. We may not like that assertion, but it is a possibility. It also meets the stated goals. Yea... the moral is temper your expectations. If you reserved an X, the promise of a extraordinary car is something to bank on.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

My wife and I didn't sign a thing when we got a personal factory tour in September of last year. I brought the delivery team to see my ship, with a 20,000 Hp electric motor and they brought me behind the scenes of everything but the sheet metal stamping area. Got to say hello to the engineers on the floor, the folks on the line and get inside the lines while on the line.
Not a single question about an NDA.
that said.... even with that level tour, the opportunity to get insider information is so limited its silly.

Well, the NDA some TMC members signed for a rather more special tour was a different thing...

 

[Nubo]

Perhaps, but the guy in Michigan broke NDA (perhaps an implied one), as did the leaker before about the nose code and the crossbeam.Can't speak for others, but I gobbled that info right up and didn't care about the character of the individual bringing it. It was exciting new tidbits during a very dark time for X info.

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

More due to the way he conducted himself than the content of his original message, imo. To paraphrase, here's the progression which escalated in short order:

1 - Here's a possible rumor
2 - Here's the REAL STORY!
3 - You can't HANDLE the truth!
4 - Hmph! I'm leaving. If you don't believe me, pressure Tesla!

All too juvenile for someone who is now claiming to be jetting around the world dealing with an international monetary crisis.

In any case, as others have mentioned, a launch like this must invariably appear chaotic to an outsider. Or even to an insider who's not at the highest levels, I would think. So even if he did hear or overhear *something* from someone, it's quite possibly second or third-hand info that even the original source was unqualified to draw conclusions from.

 

[AlMc]

What gives the general subject of a delay in the launch or slower ramp of the X more credibility, IMO, is the EM statement that only 30% of parts used in the S will be used in the X. Couple this with TMs history of not hitting deadlines one can not dismiss the OPs statements categorically. I saw Nigel post that there are some that may postpone their production/delivery based on some concerns about initial quality or need to retrofit after delivery (ex: D seats) I am one of those that will give it some serious thought. Ultimately, I will probably keep my place in line and trust that TM knows it needs to deliver a product this time that does not have door handle/windshield/12volt batt type issues.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

More due to the way he conducted himself than the content of his original message, imo. To paraphrase, here's the progression which escalated in short order:

1 - Here's a possible rumor
2 - Here's the REAL STORY!
3 - You can't HANDLE the truth!
4 - Hmph! I'm leaving. If you don't believe me, pressure Tesla!

All too juvenile for someone who is now claiming to be jetting around the world dealing with an international monetary crisis.

In any case, as others have mentioned, a launch like this must invariably appear chaotic to an outsider. Or even to an insider who's not at the highest levels, I would think. So even if he did hear or overhear *something* from someone, it's quite possibly second or third-hand info that even the original source was unqualified to draw conclusions from.

Fully agreed. Good reasons to suspect the story.

However, not enough to dismiss it entirely I think.

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What gives the general subject of a delay in the launch or slower ramp of the X more credibility, IMO, is the EM statement that only 30% of parts used in the S will be used in the X. Couple this with TMs history of not hitting deadlines one can not dismiss the OPs statements categorically. I saw Nigel post that there are some that may postpone their production/delivery based on some concerns about initial quality or need to retrofit after delivery (ex: D seats) I am one of those that will give it some serious thought. Ultimately, I will probably keep my place in line and trust that TM knows it needs to deliver a product this time that does not have door handle/windshield/12volt batt type issues.

Agreed as well.

 

[gjunky]

P.S. I do acknowledge that I'm lucky enough to be driving my Roadster and Model S while waiting.

That doesn't really help us liking you more... :crying:

 

[Matias]

When Tesla officially communicates to investors that they believe to produce 55k cars 2015, they have to believe it themselves. Otherwise they would be violating stock market rules.

 

[AlMc]

When Tesla officially communicates to investors that they believe to produce 55k cars 2015, they have to believe it themselves. Otherwise they would be violating stock market rules.

I am sure what they believe and what happens can be quite different depending on multiple factors. They 'missed' last year's production guidance IIRC. While I am suspect that TM can produce 55K cars..about 10% of which are to be Xs IIRC, I accept the 55K IF they can produce 54-55K model Ss.