Delay in model X launch?

[NigelM]

IIRC the 55k guidance was deliveries rather than production.

 

[scott jones]

ANYONE ELSE NOTICE: Eds has commented for pages and pages.
He got everyone talking amongst ourselves: Mission accomplished

 

[Electroman]

For all we know Eds could be right in his observations but where he lost credibility IMO is when he alluded that Musk is pumping the stock or is concerned that stock will fall if he tells the truth.

This is the same CEO who hinted more than once that his stock is getting ahead of reality. I will be hard pressed to find another who is brutally honest.

 

[InTheShadows]

When Tesla officially communicates to investors that they believe to produce 55k cars 2015, they have to believe it themselves. Otherwise they would be violating stock market rules.

That's why all investor materials have the disclaimer. This is also why if this rumor is true, guidance may be adjusted on the conference call this month. I have a hunch that even if X is slow to ramp they can make up for it in S deliveries.

 

[purplewalt]

ANYONE ELSE NOTICE: Eds has commented for pages and pages.
He got everyone talking amongst ourselves: Mission accomplished

Eds last post #69, @ 2:39 pm yesterday.
FUD in action.
Set off the hand-gernade in the middle of the dining room table, then slip out and watch the action/commotion thru the window.

Dec. 2015 production and delivery numbers for Model X will prove out how accurate his/her comments are, so 3 days after Dec. 31 we will know the truth.

 

[bonnie]

Or else he's busy trying to keep his job. Not that many suppliers in Newark. In fact, appears to be ONE. Tesla part supplier Futuris ramps up in Newark - Silicon Valley Business Journal

Maybe he can also explain the screwup on the next-gen seats?

 

[hockeythug]

Or else he's busy trying to keep his job. Not that many suppliers in Newark. In fact, appears to be ONE. Tesla part supplier Futuris ramps up in Newark - Silicon Valley Business Journal

Maybe he can also explain the screwup on the next-gen seats?

Are they still a Tesla supplier? :biggrin:

 

[dsm363]

I agree, less pitchforks please.

I don't find it odd though, because this behavior is a common response here, but I agree we should spend more time weighing what was said than attacks on character.

NDAs get broken all the time on the Internet as in person too. That itself doesn't tell anything on the reliability of the information. Now, what makes this info a little suspect to me is the way the story (question, details, locations) has evolved. The story is more odd than the September or Twitpic leaksters.

Not everyone is out to get everyone else here. You keep repeating that. I didn't see any attacks on character. Disagreement is sometimes just disagreement.

 

[Chris TX]

Is anyone aware of any existing passenger car/truck that has hydraulic mechanisms for doors?

Yeah, that part kind of gave it away. All of the Model X stuff I've seen, including the alphas, don't have hydraulic lifting mechanisms. Why would they go from mechanical (cable or lever) to hydraulic, and then back to mechanical? I'm sure it's a big heavy door with some safety steel inside, but it just takes a bigger motor.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I agree, less pitchforks please.

I don't find it odd though, because this behavior is a common response here, but I agree we should spend more time weighing what was said than attacks on character.

Not everyone is out to get everyone else here. You keep repeating that. I didn't see any attacks on character. Disagreement is sometimes just disagreement.

Just to be clear, that comment was in support of AnOutsider's wording, nothing more. I thought heeding his request seemed reasonable too.

We'll see how much of this pans out, in the meantime, can we stop looking like a mob of angry pitchfork-wielding villagers?

I just find it a bit odd that instead of weighing what's said and considering it, the majority of the responses here are lashing out at the individual.

 

[bonnie]

Are they still a Tesla supplier? :biggrin:

Haha. Exactly what I was thinking. Maybe they lost the contract over that fiasco and well, bitter.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Ah yes, the incompetent and retaliatory sub-contractor angle. Nothing ever wrong with Tesla, eh?

 

[AlMc]

We will never agree on if the OP is giving us 'good' information or not. I am curious if everyone here feels about the actual first delivery dates for the X and the total deliveries by the end of the year. My prediction is that Bonnie (SigX #2) takes delivery early October 2015 and the ramp has some inevitable 'kinks' causing total deliveries of the X to be 1,500 in 2015.
( 200 October, 500 November, 800 December). If TM continues to push line #1 at 1200 Ss/week through the end of the year then delivery totals of about 52K cars ( S/X )
Opinions? Other estimates?

 

[bonnie]

We will never agree on if the OP is giving us 'good' information or not. I am curious if everyone here feels about the actual first delivery dates for the X and the total deliveries by the end of the year. My prediction is that Bonnie (SigX #2) takes delivery early October 2015 and the ramp has some inevitable 'kinks' causing total deliveries of the X to be 1,500 in 2015.
( 200 October, 500 November, 800 December). If TM continues to push line #1 at 1200 Ss/week through the end of the year then delivery totals of about 52K cars ( S/X )
Opinions? Other estimates?

Pretty much agree - I think some Founders in Sept, a lull, a few more ... then a handful of Sigs in mid-late October. And if it is November or January ... I'm good with that, too.

 

[dsm363]

Ah yes, the incompetent and retaliatory sub-contractor angle. Nothing ever wrong with Tesla, eh?

Seriously. What's the deal?

If a contractor violated an NDA you think Tesla or any other company would thank them for it and double their order or find a different supplier? I realize this fits into your everyone here is a Tesla defender and has rose colored glasses view of TMC.

 

[NigelM]

Pretty much agree - I think some Founders in Sept, a lull, a few more ... then a handful of Sigs in mid-late October. And if it is November or January ... I'm good with that, too.

Ditto, on all those points.

 

[AnOutsider]

Not everyone is out to get everyone else here. You keep repeating that. I didn't see any attacks on character. Disagreement is sometimes just disagreement.

You didn't? We're reading a different thread.

Eds last post #69, @ 2:39 pm yesterday.
FUD in action.
Set off the hand-gernade in the middle of the dining room table, then slip out and watch the action/commotion thru the window.

Dec. 2015 production and delivery numbers for Model X will prove out how accurate his/her comments are, so 3 days after Dec. 31 we will know the truth.

Indeed we shall.

Ah yes, the incompetent and retaliatory sub-contractor angle. Nothing ever wrong with Tesla, eh?

Well, both could be true. A ticked-off ex-contractor could be mad enough to spill the beans on stuff Tesla is keeping close to the vest. FWIW, I think things may be a bit exaggerated, and Tesla may have time to fix any issues they're having, but I'm not dismissing the OP's claims at all. Deal with Tesla Motors long enough and it becomes easier to smell the fertilizer under the roses.

 

[dsm363]

You didn't? We're reading a different thread.



Indeed we shall.



Well, both could be true. A ticked-off ex-contractor could be mad enough to spill the beans on stuff Tesla is keeping close to the vest. FWIW, I think things may be a bit exaggerated, and Tesla may have time to fix any issues they're having, but I'm not dismissing the OP's claims at all. Deal with Tesla Motors long enough and it becomes easier to smell the fertilizer under the roses.

Guess I don't see that as an attacks on his character. He's describing what he thinks the person did with his actions, not attacking him personally.

 

[woof]

Deal with Tesla Motors long enough and it becomes easier to smell the fertilizer under the roses.

I love this statement. Best thing I've read on TMC in quite some time.

 

[InTheShadows]

You didn't? We're reading a different thread.



Indeed we shall.



Well, both could be true. A ticked-off ex-contractor could be mad enough to spill the beans on stuff Tesla is keeping close to the vest. FWIW, I think things may be a bit exaggerated, and Tesla may have time to fix any issues they're having, but I'm not dismissing the OP's claims at all. Deal with Tesla Motors long enough and it becomes easier to smell the fertilizer under the roses.

As a contractor I feel that is certain death for any contractor to do such a thing. A company the size of Tesla would not just play dead to a blatant NDA violation of this caliber. There would be litigation for damages.

It would also be something easy for future customers to look up and reasons for them to not hire said contractor.

My guess is it was an employee that shot their mouth off and now is looking for a new job.

At this stage I think it would be hard for tesla to terminate the contractor without impacting the launch. More likely is they demand termination of the employee. If there are other items that tesla is not happy with with the contractor, the smart way to play it would be to begin looking for another contractor and get them up to speed so the original contractor can be let go with out interrupting the supply chain at the end of their original contract.