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Delay in model X launch?
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Chris, you may think this thread is terrible but you just had a few posts by some 'veteran' TMC people acknowledge that TM is very likely to slightly delay the X launch, have fewer than the 5K that EM guided for in 2015 delivered and perhaps missing the 55K guidance. The original OP assertions may be questionable but the last few posts might be quite telling for an investor.
Krugerrand
Meow
Ah yes, the incompetent and retaliatory sub-contractor angle.Nothing ever wrong with Tesla, eh?
You don't see Tesla posting here dissing suppliers, do you?
The last few valuable posts in a 13+ page post does not redeem it. As an investor, I'd see the FUDfest on pages 1-3 and not care about the rest.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Yes, but this shouldn't be viewed as a new possibility, or even remotely due to the OPs remarks. If this is the first time anyone considered the possibility of a delay, especially with everyone discussing it while citing past events, then I'm not sure exactly what to say.
I have seen no evidence presented in this thread that would lead me to believe that anything other than past delays could be considered as indicators of another delay. I'm certainly open to the possibility of a delay, but what has been presented here isn't anything new.
I try to find some value in all the threads I read ( I admit sometimes it is hard :wink
. As a holder of an x reservation I do not care if it is delayed for another month or so to make sure TM delivers an exceptional vehicle. However, as someone who holds options (my trader side) and stock (my investor side) I am concerned about anything that is or can be construed as being negative to the performance of the company and thus the price of the stock. So, for me anyway the value of the last few posts makes this thread very worthwhile.
I disagree.
First, Elon just stated in a blog post that first deliveries will be in 2 months, putting the first deliveries in the middle of September. I am unaware of founders series etc for the X like there was for the S, so unless someone can correct me on this and if you believe Elon, than Bonnie (Sig #2) should have hers by the end of September.
Second, while a slow X ramp is still a major risk (and 1500 for the year may be correct), I think the risk for the 55K guidance has been taken away by all the demand levers Elon just pulled for the Model S (70S, ludicrous etc). Line 2 can make Model S or X and if there are supplier issues for the X, then Tesla can just build more S on line 2 to meet guidance (demand should not be an issue with ludicrous).
NigelM
Recovering Member
I don't recall if we've ever heard officially that there will be Founders cars but for some reason I've always believed there will be. I'm also confident that Tesla will deliver some cars in Q3 I.e. September. IIRC there were several weeks between Founders and Sigs during the Model S launch and I see various reasons for at least a few weeks gap this time also.
I've seen many manufacturing ramp-ups and not one ever runs without problems. I can also foresee that with only 30% commonality the combined production line may be harder to achieve than planned. If there's not so many Model X there will need to be quite a boost from Ludicrous. Further to production, X and/or S, Tesla is going to have to ramp-up the delivery channel also.
Tesla has proved folks wrong (incl me) on various things before now and they might well do it again but I'm still feeling a delivery total ~52k for FY 2015.
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I don't think they'll be called "Founders series" necessarily, but I do expect the first deliveries will be something other than the general public Signature reservations. They will be people close to Tesla who can order in confidence and serve as public beta testers. The public reveal may or may not take place prior to these deliveries, but no Signatures will be called to place orders until the public reveal. The rest of your analysis seems spot-on, and despite the factory's greatly increased capabilities, the Model X rollout will end up feeling a lot like the Model S rollout. Signatures will trickle out in Q4 and full production won't begin until 2016.
Bonnie, I'm curious, what do you think TM's plans are for winter weather testing? Can they really go full production without testing peak winter conditions?
Anyone else informed of the situation, please feel free to answer too.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I doubt it's future plans, winter testing would have been completed by now. It's not something you do after release.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I have no way of knowing the answers to that. There is a lot of testing we will probably never be informed about. I do know that at any given point in time, you can find winter conditions at some place in this world. So it wouldn't necessarily be tied to a season.
CarlK
Active Member
Yes they can do testing in the Southern Hemisphere. As I recall, they did the initial Roadster traction control testing in some Northern Europe country (Finland, Sweden?) on some frozen lake that all the auto manufacturers use.
CmdrThor
Active Member
Unfortunately Model X will not be released until it snows in Palo Alto. Thank you for your patience.
It was done in Sweden and I guess Model X got some testing last winter in Sweden too. However, Earth have winter year around and you are able to do some tests indoors. I'm pretty sure Tesla have done the wintertesting several months ago.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Seems like they would have gotten a lot of experience testing the D/AWD versions of the Model S. I was pretty happy when that came out for that reason.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Right but what percentage of the Model S D/AWD drivetrain is the *same* as the Model X. My guess is 95%+.
