Reality kicking in. Mercedes, BMW and Ford (and others) are catching up very quickly. I love many things about my Tesla but they simply are not the only game in town for EVs anymore. Their battery technology is still superior to others - for now. The supercharger network is a huge advantage - for now.
I’m still bullish on Tesla’s future prospects however Musk needs to STFU and stop being such a liability, and Tesla needs to do much better at fixing their reputation for overpromising / under-delivering.
They need to get Cybertruck out ASAP. Ford is eating their lunch right now in the electric light truck market because Elon ran his mouth about how wonderful Cybertruck would be - three years ago. As of today there’s still not a single production Cybertruck in existence. The new Roadster is a joke. $250,000 for maybe vapor? I’m skeptical at this point that it’ll ever come to reality as the economy craters and we slide into an era of stagflation. There aren’t many rich people willing to throw $250,000 on a science fair project, and Tesla probably doesn’t have the resources to really push it and remain competitive in their other, money-making sectors. IMO they should kill that project immediately, cool and fun as it is.
Then there’s autonomous driving. Mercedes is the new leader. Tesla is getting left in the dust here. “Tesla Vision” is a complete mistake. Perhaps they can recapture the throne as the autonomous driving leader, but I doubt it. Mercedes has Level 3 working well and reliably now, today. Tesla is probably a good 2-3 years away if they’re lucky, if they abandon Tesla Vision as the “path forward” (which it’s not) and Musk’s ego and stupid antics don’t get in the way. I recently got a “boring” Toyota Camry as a rental on a business trip but found its version of autopilot (adaptive cruise control plus lane-hold auto steer) to be really, really good. It didn’t have the cool screen visualization that my Tesla has, but it worked reliably, didn’t do anything too dumb / unpredictable while I was using it (had a little difficulty in one location identifying an off-ramp). It’s wasn’t nearly as naggy about telling me to keep my hands on the wheel (and when it did, I literally had to just tap it with my finger to make the message go away) and was quite easy to trust. So once again, that which formerly only belonged to Tesla no longer does.
On a positive note, Semi looks great and can potentially be a game changer for that industry. That’s a big milestone. Cybertruck will be huge if they can ever get it out. Every week that slips is a colossal embarrassment, more angry customers seething in line, more sales going to electric F150s and the like.
Plaid is cool but nobody is buying them. $160k for a luxury sedan is just not a big market. I think the days of the flagship “S” are numbered, unfortunately. The battleground is in mid-size, affordable cars, SUVs and light trucks. Tesla would do well to exploring a hot hatch, lower cost model too - something that’d compete with the likes of the STIs out there. Electric performance would be amazing and it could very well dominate that market - but could they get something in production in less than 5-10 years? I’m sure the major automakers are well along with something in mind to attack that market already…
So is Tesla done? No. They’re still solid, make great stuff and are selling like mad. But they’re no longer the only player in the EV world, they’re not even going to be top dog in the EV world for too much longer, but they do have some amazing things out with a couple more coming. Models 3 and Y will still do very well. Cybertruck will be big. But we are also careening towards a recession and anti-EV hate out there is still high. Many people see a push by government to force them into EVs and are being passive-aggressive. It’s not a good time to be making durable goods. But Tesla will endure and continue to be a force to be reckoned with, and a major innovator.
