Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

[pipestem]

We already have a MYLR and were planning on getting a second car in the coming months but the value of the M3RWD right now was kind of hard to turn down. I ordered right before the announcement that it was losing the fed credits were disappearing next year and inventory discounts quickly evaporated in my area.

Picking up on Saturday for ($35,090 - $7500 federal - $5000 CO - 1000 cyber) $21,590. Even with depreciation, I think I could still sell it in a few years if the Juniper MY is compelling enough for a minimal loss.

That is freaking incredible and Colorado is nuts with that rebate. I might have bought one just to have another around. Our model 3 in March was 38000 - 7500 ==> $10k more than yours.

 

[maksimfa]

Hey folks!

Question for you if anyone knows. We are getting close to the end of the year and some great discounts on inventory cars. Looks like Y will keep the credit, the question is, if we buy the car now (inventory discount)... and delay delivery into January 1st, would they do the point of sale credit? Or cancel the order and tell us to buy again with whatever those prices will be.

Would far rather do point of sale credit as the $7,500 is a non-refundable credit and would not be able to take full advantage of it at the personal level.

 

[Mike728]

Hey folks!

Question for you if anyone knows. We are getting close to the end of the year and some great discounts on inventory cars. Looks like Y will keep the credit, the question is, if we buy the car now (inventory discount)... and delay delivery into January 1st, would they do the point of sale credit? Or cancel the order and tell us to buy again with whatever those prices will be.

Would far rather do point of sale credit as the $7,500 is a non-refundable credit and would not be able to take full advantage of it at the personal level.

Everything I've seen shows only the performance models of the 3 and Y will qualify, besides the base (<$80k) X in 2024. You probably shouldn't wait if you can qualify for it, especially since you can file your taxes right around the corner.

 

[DeadLurker]

Just bought a RWD for 35 - 7.5 - CT 1 = 26.5k. Wasn't in the market but seems like a good deal.

TX had 45 last week and now 30. The 35k Mo3 has been consistently available for a week here.

 

[MacO512]

Hey folks!

Question for you if anyone knows. We are getting close to the end of the year and some great discounts on inventory cars. Looks like Y will keep the credit, the question is, if we buy the car now (inventory discount)... and delay delivery into January 1st, would they do the point of sale credit? Or cancel the order and tell us to buy again with whatever those prices will be.

Would far rather do point of sale credit as the $7,500 is a non-refundable credit and would not be able to take full advantage of it at the personal level.

If you don't qualify for full 7500 credit in 2023 I don't think you'll gain anything getting POS credit January 2024 (assuming income/taxes) stay the same. Maybe there is a way you can get that 7500 off at purchase, although maybe not as dealer likely will have to check your income/etc.

Even if you get that POS 7500 credit then you'll probably later have to pay that portion back when filing 2024 taxes a year later.

 

[MacO512]

Anyone else very skeptical that the M3 and MY will lose as much of this tax credit as is being reported?

I could see it being removed Jan 1st, then a few weeks later there is a change in battery composition or something and suddenly full credit is again available. Or maybe the highland/juniper changes all qualify in full and Tesla tries to get people to upgrade these Dec M3/Y being purchased now.

Seems like this talk of credit being lost may just be Tesla trying to pump up Q4 sales. Saw similar statements last year, then massive price cuts mid January that made those prior December "deals" an overpay.

 

[maksimfa]

If you don't qualify for full 7500 credit in 2023 I don't think you'll gain anything getting POS credit January 2024 (assuming income/taxes) stay the same. Maybe there is a way you can get that 7500 off at purchase, although maybe not as dealer likely will have to check your income/etc.

Even if you get that POS 7500 credit then you'll probably later have to pay that portion back when filing 2024 taxes a year later.

Actually, you won't have to pay it back. Only if your income is ABOVE the AGI limit. You don't have to pay it back if you did not make enough. =) Confirmed with a few accounting sites.

 

[maksimfa]

Anyone else very skeptical that the M3 and MY will lose as much of this tax credit as is being reported?

I could see it being removed Jan 1st, then a few weeks later there is a change in battery composition or something and suddenly full credit is again available. Or maybe the highland/juniper changes all qualify in full and Tesla tries to get people to upgrade these Dec M3/Y being purchased now.

Seems like this talk of credit being lost may just be Tesla trying to pump up Q4 sales. Saw similar statements last year, then massive price cuts mid January that made those prior December "deals" an overpay.

For sure. I am sure magically they will qualify, they would be giving up a lot to competitors if they do not. The Y did have the domestically produced batteries, but switched to overseas 2170 for the newest builds?

they will hardcore do what they can to push as many deliveries as they can for this quarter and year end.

 

[vesder21]

Going to pick up another Y based off the recent additional discounts, but am wondering why some builds are discounted or lower than other vehicles.

All are LR Y's with the base configuration.
All say new vehicle
All say in transit or at the location

These(Midnight Silver -base models) are listed as low as $46,540 - 49,460+

Thoughts?

 

[jjrandorin]

Thoughts?

My guess (and it is just a guess I have zero idea) is that Tesla uses an algorithm to price these type of discounts, and vehicles that have been sitting longer get a larger discount as time goes on, until they hit some price floor.

So, cheaper ones likely have been there longer, for "some reason", which we dont know and will never know.

 

[vesder21]

My guess (and it is just a guess I have zero idea) is that Tesla uses an algorithm to price these type of discounts, and vehicles that have been sitting longer get a larger discount as time goes on, until they hit some price floor.

So, cheaper ones likely have been there longer, for "some reason", which we dont know and will never know.

that is what I thought, but most of these are "in transit" so I'm puzzled. I ended up putting an order for the cheapest one and the VIN is an Austin build around the 200,xxx build.

We will see, but I'm wondering because I placed the order last night and the existing listing is still there (or they lowered/added another to be in that 46k range).

Puzzling, but in the end a great deal based off our other Y that was $67k last year - welp!

 

[MacO512]

Actually, you won't have to pay it back. Only if your income is ABOVE the AGI limit. You don't have to pay it back if you did not make enough. =) Confirmed with a few accounting sites.

I don't believe your comment is right, you must have enough tax liability to utilize the full tax credit.

 

[mwdietertg]

My guess (and it is just a guess I have zero idea) is that Tesla uses an algorithm to price these type of discounts, and vehicles that have been sitting longer get a larger discount as time goes on, until they hit some price floor.

So, cheaper ones likely have been there longer, for "some reason", which we dont know and will never know.

I've been watching inventory closely in PA the last couple weeks and it seems really random. I just grabbed an in-transit base MYLR (gray, geminis, black interior) for $45,540 while there is another currently listed with the same specs, in transit to the same delivery center for $47,030.

 

[tangible1]

I don't believe your comment is right, you must have enough tax liability to utilize the full tax credit.

agreed.
if your tax liability doesn't cover the credit, IRS Tax Form 8936 claws back the portion not applicable.
people should also familiarize themselves with Form 8911 to claim credits available for their charging infrastructure costs.

this assumes the IRS, etc is finally able to administratively recognize whether you're eligible or not if you don't file the necessary forms.....

 

[MacO512]

agreed.
if your tax liability doesn't cover the credit, IRS Tax Form 8936 claws back the portion not applicable.
people should also familiarize themselves with Form 8911 to claim credits available for their charging infrastructure costs.

this assumes the IRS, etc is finally able to administratively recognize whether you're eligible or not if you don't file the necessary forms.....

I'd imagine IRS easily can verify taxpayer had enough tax liability as it's all part of the main form 1040. Could be flagged regardless of additional forms.

 

[vesder21]

I've been watching inventory closely in PA the last couple weeks and it seems really random. I just grabbed an in-transit base MYLR (gray, geminis, black interior) for $45,540 while there is another currently listed with the same specs, in transit to the same delivery center for $47,030.

I grabbed a similar one/config here in NE Ohio (for 1k more) and then the listing never went away. It's still like that even though I was assigned a VIN so I am not sure what is going on. I wonder how many they have avail a that price and then others that are a few hundred and or thousand diff.

 

[ucmndd]

Everything I've seen shows only the performance models of the 3 and Y will qualify

The Y LR and P use identical battery packs. If one qualifies, both will.

If you don't qualify for full 7500 credit in 2023 I don't think you'll gain anything getting POS credit January 2024 (assuming income/taxes) stay the same.

The recently released IRS guidelines will let people take the full $7500 POS credit in 2024, even if they don’t have enough tax liability to cover it. Upper income limit still applies.
Treasury Department aims to make it easier to get $7,500 EV tax credit in 2024

Anyone else very skeptical that the M3 and MY will lose as much of this tax credit as is being reported?

The packs with Chinese cells in the 3 RWD and LR are certainly going to lose at least half and likely all of the credit. That’s pretty much a done deal at this point. MY with Panasonic 2170 cells are a bit more of an open question based on the minerals requirements - will either be the full $7500 or $3750.

 

[ucmndd]

I've been watching inventory closely in PA the last couple weeks and it seems really random. I just grabbed an in-transit base MYLR (gray, geminis, black interior) for $45,540 while there is another currently listed with the same specs, in transit to the same delivery center for $47,030.

Listing every available model for the same big discount reduces the sense of urgency. Tesla only wants one or two copies in each region at the max discount at any given time. When someone snaps that one up, they reduce the price of another one to take its place.

Simple pricing games…

 

[ucmndd]

The Y did have the domestically produced batteries, but switched to overseas 2170 for the newest builds?

There is no evidence that any currently produced MY for the US market uses cells from anywhere other than Giga Nevada.

 

[ucmndd]

Looks like Y will keep the credit, the question is, if we buy the car now (inventory discount)... and delay delivery into January 1st, would they do the point of sale credit?

Hypothetically yes, however:

1) Tesla will do absolutely everything in their power to get you to take delivery before 12/31 and will very likely exercise their right to cancel your order and keep your $250 if you don’t, selling the inventory car to someone else willing to take delivery before the end of the year. You have ~72 hours from the time they notify you the car is ready to take delivery.

2) I very much doubt Tesla will be ready to start processing POS credits on 1/1/2024. This is all brand new and gonna take some time. Tesla isn’t gonna let you hold on to an inventory car for that long.