Niroc
Member
I think that the there will be a glut of used EVs on the market in 5 years. Right now, when I search for a used Model3 I get a ton of hits. Searching for a used Santa Fe limited may get 5 or 6 max. Many people who can afford to pay a large $ amount for EVs are buying them now. Some are replacing their older EV models. Most Americans cannot afford those prices. The switch to the mostly EV market is not happening in 5 or 10 years. It will take decades.Some market experts are forecasting challenges with ICE vehicle sales as EVs become more popular. Consider the volume and popularity of EVs five years ago. Look at Tesla today as they are 17% of all new car sales in California. Automakers like GM and Ford are advertising today many new EVs in moderate volume in 2024 through 2026. With the rapid increase in EVs, who will want the older technology knowing it is getting more obsolescent every year?
No look at the halo effect on other parts of the automotive industry. How many gas stations will go under? How much will EV charging infrastructure improve with Tesla rapidly expanding their infrastructure along with federal investment? How many people will wait an extra year to two to save up for the EV rather than buy a new or used ICE vehicle? How many more people will overcome the resistance to an EV as drive one?
There will be a market for ICE vehicles in five years. I just believe the issue will be a glut of used ICE vehicles as people continue to choose to replace them with EVs.
and ... EDD updated from 2/16-3/16 to 2/24-3/10. At least it is a narrower window.
My friend in the Netherlands says that electricity has gotten so expensive it costs more to charge his Audi EV than an ice car. As the demand for electricity increases, that will lower the desire for an EV.