Homekeys
Member
I ordered day one. In the afternoon. Before the reveal. In person at the Tesla store in Decatur, GA
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Do we know which group gets their Model 3 next?
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
I was at the Decatur Store today and they had 9 Model 3's in the lot.
Brando
Active Member
1st day orders was 124,000 - right?
At about an average of 2,500 per week, it would take a year.
That is just the first day orders.
At about an average of 2,500 per week, it would take a year.
That is just the first day orders.
There was a spotting of a car transporter with M3s heading towards Springfield, MO yesterday night
I am non the the groups in the list, I’m going to be a new Tesla owner who ordered the first week, the thing I can’t believe is my friend who order a year later
EV-lutioin
Active Member
I think Tesla wants to exhaust the list current owners nationwide and for any date of reservation before they invite non-owners.
Reasons:
1. Tesla wants to stay with the Long Range, PUP version as long as possible to simplify the ramp. Current owners are the target market for this configuration since, presumably, they have adequate resources to purchase a $50K car.
2. Tesla knows that current owners are more accustomed to glitches like the phone/fob system not working. If you are willing to buy another Tesla, you already understand their will be some "beta" experiences.
3. Current owners understand how the delivery process works, how charging works, how the Supercharging network operates etc. They will create less impact on customer service during the ramp-up period.
4. Tesla wants to reward loyalty. If you think the Alcantara issue was big, just imagine what would happen if they invited non-owners before current owners.
Reasons:
1. Tesla wants to stay with the Long Range, PUP version as long as possible to simplify the ramp. Current owners are the target market for this configuration since, presumably, they have adequate resources to purchase a $50K car.
2. Tesla knows that current owners are more accustomed to glitches like the phone/fob system not working. If you are willing to buy another Tesla, you already understand their will be some "beta" experiences.
3. Current owners understand how the delivery process works, how charging works, how the Supercharging network operates etc. They will create less impact on customer service during the ramp-up period.
4. Tesla wants to reward loyalty. If you think the Alcantara issue was big, just imagine what would happen if they invited non-owners before current owners.
Brando
Active Member
keyword "estimate"
<sarcasm>Don't tell me even Tesla "estimates" are not accurate! How do they stay in business ?
es·ti·mate verb
ˈ/estəˌmāt/
roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of.
Obviously, Tesla needs to commit more resources to the estimate data collection and communications of estimate opinions.
</sarcasm>
Perhaps this estimator works better??
Model 3 Delivery Estimator - Teslanomics
Don't forget the 124,000 total includes international orders as well who are much lower in priority regardless of when they ordered.
sreams
Member
Tesla wants to reward loyalty. If you think the Alcantara issue was big, just imagine what would happen if they invited non-owners before current owners.
Giving owners priority over every other person who reserved on the same day or the same week they did would still be a reward, so I'm not sure it's that simple. In other words... if an owner reserved today, and then ended up moving ahead of every other person who reserved in 2018 (but not earlier), that would be a reward.
I am not going to assume what Tesla has in mind, but I wouldn't be shocked if Tesla decided that owners would automatically go to the front of the line for the day that they reserved. Meaning all first day owner reservations before non owner first day reservations. But, moving day 2 and beyond owners in front of line waiters may not be a slam dunk?
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
115,000 reservations Day 1.
Only 7% of the reservations were from owners. Estimate half of those were from California.
In front of those would be the estimated 5,000-10,000 employee/family orders.
Figure 25% defer for one reason or another, be it AWD, base model, performance model, interior other than black, and so forth.
If 750/week trending toward 1250/week, the employee and CA owner reservations should be filled Q1.
The question becomes how and if Tesla will skew international production to preserve the federal tax credit.
Also would be nice to hear what the “something special” will be from Elon as promised to the 115,000 Day 1 line waiters. Last communication from Tesla was that he has not yet decided.
Only 7% of the reservations were from owners. Estimate half of those were from California.
In front of those would be the estimated 5,000-10,000 employee/family orders.
Figure 25% defer for one reason or another, be it AWD, base model, performance model, interior other than black, and so forth.
If 750/week trending toward 1250/week, the employee and CA owner reservations should be filled Q1.
The question becomes how and if Tesla will skew international production to preserve the federal tax credit.
Also would be nice to hear what the “something special” will be from Elon as promised to the 115,000 Day 1 line waiters. Last communication from Tesla was that he has not yet decided.
Msjulie
Active Member
I think California folks are also getting a little bump in line - same reserve date here and my invite came on 1/4
Insight75
Member
My delivery estimate indicates Dec-Feb 2018. Is this at all accurate? I'm an owner but didn't reserve anywhere near day 1.
I'm in the same boat. I didn't reserve until Apr 2017 and have the Dec-Feb 2018 delivery window. I'm an owner and spoke to a DS in my area last week and he stated I should receive an invite soon and definitely within that window. At this point I'm not sure what to believe.
Guess: Tesla figures that by then the cars will be rolling off the line so fast that a year's worth of reservations get filled in a month of production.
My big (selfish) question is: As a Roadster owner since 2011, day-2 reservation in Spokane, WA, will I get my invite before or after non-owners who ordered on Day 1 in CA? If Tesla prioritizes order date above ownership status, I have a long wait. My estimate is Dec-Feb, but even Tesla cannot know that until all the bottlenecks are cleared and they know more accurately the slope of the ramp-up.
I suppose it would make sense for them to keep the CA delivery centers working at capacity, and deliver to other areas when those centers cannot keep up with production. So a slower production rate would tip more deliveries to CA, while a faster production rate would mean deliveries to other areas.
There's no delivery center in Spokane, and I'm not going to drive a brand-new car off the lot and immediately all the way across the state, so it will have to be delivered to me. They did that for my Roadster, but I don't know how that will affect my Model 3 order.
thefortunes
Active Member
Check your MyTesla account - you probably already can order (even if you haven't gotten the invite).Guess: Tesla figures that by then the cars will be rolling off the line so fast that a year's worth of reservations get filled in a month of production.
My big (selfish) question is: As a Roadster owner since 2011, day-2 reservation in Spokane, WA, will I get my invite before or after non-owners who ordered on Day 1 in CA? If Tesla prioritizes order date above ownership status, I have a long wait. My estimate is Dec-Feb, but even Tesla cannot know that until all the bottlenecks are cleared and they know more accurately the slope of the ramp-up.
I suppose it would make sense for them to keep the CA delivery centers working at capacity, and deliver to other areas when those centers cannot keep up with production. So a slower production rate would tip more deliveries to CA, while a faster production rate would mean deliveries to other areas.
There's no delivery center in Spokane, and I'm not going to drive a brand-new car off the lot and immediately all the way across the state, so it will have to be delivered to me. They did that for my Roadster, but I don't know how that will affect my Model 3 order.
Insight75
Member
Yes exact same boat. This is exactly when I reserved....April 2017. I really hope its correct.....
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