Do you think a 10-15 Year Old S is completely worthless?

[Sir Guacamolaf]

On a different note, hats off to those of you who have the patience to keep a car for 10+ years.
I always plan on keeping my cars for 8. But then I look at all the nicer newer ones whizzing by, and damn man, life is short, and driving years are even shorter.

My Tesla is 2 years old now. If I get another 6 out of it, and sells for 20-30k, I'm happy.
Not to mention, my ancient AP1 car doesn't need to be jailbroken to speed.

 

[Bet TSLA]

On a different note, hats off to those of you who have the patience to keep a car for 10+ years.

My 2014 Tesla replaced my 1994 Honda Accord as my daily driver. But it wasn't because I was unhappy with my Accord.

 

[Max*]

Worthless? Depends if Tesla keeps prices for parts sky high. There are a ton of electronics in the car. They will break.

MCU $4k? On a car that's 10 years old? Might as well buy a new one at that point.
Door handles? $800 a pop. Yes, they still break.
Yearly 12V at $400-$600 a pop?

At some point those maintenance expenses add up, and that's the tipping point for selling.

The car wont be worthless, but it'll be badly depreciated.

 

[mspohr]

Worthless? Depends if Tesla keeps prices for parts sky high. There are a ton of electronics in the car. They will break.

MCU $4k? On a car that's 10 years old? Might as well buy a new one at that point.
Door handles? $800 a pop. Yes, they still break.
Yearly 12V at $400-$600 a pop?

At some point those maintenance expenses add up, and that's the tipping point for selling.

The car wont be worthless, but it'll be badly depreciated.

Salvage parts will be available at a fraction of these prices.
Electronics are much more reliable than mechanical parts. I have a big pile of computers that still work after 20 years.
BTW, 12v replacement is $220 and most people go much longer than a year without problems. ( I'm at 25 months)

 

[Max*]

Salvage parts will be available at a fraction of these prices.
Electronics are much more reliable than mechanical parts. I have a big pile of computers that still work after 20 years.
BTW, 12v replacement is $220 and most people go much longer than a year without problems. ( I'm at 25 months)

I disagree.

While it's true that salvage parts do exist, Tesla will not swap a salvaged MCU for you. There are a couple forum members who have the ability, but in general, how many shops will replace an MCU for you or a door handle in the Tesla or a 12V battery?

I got to 18months before needing a new 12V, whoptydo, not a year, but not 2 years either.


If your counter argument will be that in 10 years there'll be more Tesla's out of warranty, so more shops will show up. It's possible, but we're in year 5 of production of the Model S? I don't see many shops in CA willing to work on Tesla electronics that are not authorized shops.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Salvage parts will be available at a fraction of these prices.
Electronics are much more reliable than mechanical parts. I have a big pile of computers that still work after 20 years.
BTW, 12v replacement is $220 and most people go much longer than a year without problems. ( I'm at 25 months)

Salvage parts are already around, but still repair costs and wait times are absurd.
Electronics can get outdated and unsupported, and they do go bad too.
And I have never heard of a car, other than Tesla, that needs 12v battery replacements every year.
Not only does it need that replacement, its also that they make it so difficult to replace compared to a normal ICE.

Lets be honest here. Repairs and Service are a problem with Tesla. And those will undoubtedly hurt the resale value of older cars.
One can of course hope that Tesla will fix this problem, but it doesn't seem like they are even trying at the moment.

 

[mspohr]

Salvage parts are already around, but still repair costs and wait times are absurd.
Electronics can get outdated and unsupported, and they do go bad too.
And I have never heard of a car, other than Tesla, that needs 12v battery replacements every year.
Not only does it need that replacement, its also that they make it so difficult to replace compared to a normal ICE.

Lets be honest here. Repairs and Service are a problem with Tesla. And those will undoubtedly hurt the resale value of older cars.
One can of course hope that Tesla will fix this problem, but it doesn't seem like they are even trying at the moment.

Other than the fact that Tesla doesn't need a 12v battery replacement every year and the fact that it's easy to replace it and the fact that it costs $220, not $600, you might have a point.

Here's a way to repair the door microswitch for no cost:

Here's how to replace the 12v battery:
tesla replace 12v battery - YouTube

Here's how to replace the MCU with a salvage part:
tesla repair mcu - YouTube

Here's a bunch more Tesla repair videos:
Tesla repair - YouTube

It looks like Tesla will be just like any other car in that you will have cheaper DIY or independent shops which can repair or replace many parts.
Tesla service center repair is expensive just like dealer service for every other car but you do have options and 10 years from now with many more cars on the road, there will be a lot of independent repair options.

 

[KJD]

One can of course hope that Tesla will fix this problem, but it doesn't seem like they are even trying at the moment.

The first step in fixing this problem is recognition that people have a right to repair their own cars. This was talked about in this article.
Tesla President of Sales and Service Says Program To Allow Owners To Perform Own Repairs Is "In The Works"

More discussion here.
Pack Performance and Launch Mode Limits

 

[X Fan]

I think the largest repair expense for a Tesla would be to replace the battery. I believe this is currently about $20,000 but should drop quite a bit over the next 10 years. It's hard to say what to expect from the batteries but the evidence so far is that they are holding up well.
I wouldn't be opposed to paying $10,000 for a new battery 10 years from now if it came to that. I've probably paid more than that in maintenance and repairs over the past 18 years to keep my Land Rover on the road.
The car's aluminum body should be solid and the motors should last a long time (? a million miles). Everything else is minor. The things that kill ICE cars are body rot and engine/transmission wear. Tesla doesn't have either of these problems.

+1....I'd add in the cost of perhaps replacing front seats....

 

[JBsC6z51]

30 percent of original msrp is a logical assumption as long as it looks well cared for.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

@KJD I was encouraged to see that too. It is really sad however that Tesla has let the problem become so bad, and so far it's just lip service, hoping for some actual improvement of course.

But as an owner I feel Tesla's focus on selling cars, instead of servicing existing cars, is hurting me as an existing owner. So if anyone asks my opinion on Tesla, I just tell them how it is. Great car, love driving it, EV is awesome. But repair costs and wait times are astronomical and service centers are overloaded. Sure I loose a few referrals this way, and I'm sure I'll get some dislikes on this post, but meh! Who cares!

I don't want to be constantly worried about some kid in a Honda civic rear ending me every single time I get on the road. 3 months wait times for basic repairs is just not acceptable.

 

[FlatSix911]

The key to solving the future repair costs will be the availability of aftermarket parts and repair shops.
Tesla holds all of the cards today ... let's hope that changes with the arrival of the Model 3 this year

Tesla is working on opening up its service tools and helping owners repair their own cars with replacement parts

Salvage parts will be available at a fraction of these prices.
Electronics are much more reliable than mechanical parts. I have a big pile of computers that still work after 20 years.
BTW, 12v replacement is $220 and most people go much longer than a year without problems. ( I'm at 25 months)

I disagree.
While it's true that salvage parts do exist, Tesla will not swap a salvaged MCU for you. There are a couple forum members who have the ability, but in general, how many shops will replace an MCU for you or a door handle in the Tesla or a 12V battery? I got to 18months before needing a new 12V, whoptydo, not a year, but not 2 years either.

If your counter argument will be that in 10 years there'll be more Tesla's out of warranty, so more shops will show up. It's possible, but we're in year 5 of production of the Model S? I don't see many shops in CA willing to work on Tesla electronics that are not authorized shops.

Salvage parts are already around, but still repair costs and wait times are absurd.
Electronics can get outdated and unsupported, and they do go bad too.
And I have never heard of a car, other than Tesla, that needs 12v battery replacements every year.
Not only does it need that replacement, its also that they make it so difficult to replace compared to a normal ICE.

Lets be honest here. Repairs and Service are a problem with Tesla. And those will undoubtedly hurt the resale value of older cars.
One can of course hope that Tesla will fix this problem, but it doesn't seem like they are even trying at the moment.

 

[davinci2017]

The key to solving the future repair costs will be the availability of aftermarket parts and repair shops.
Tesla holds all of the cards today ... let's hope that changes with the arrival of the Model 3 this year

Tesla is working on opening up its service tools and helping owners repair their own cars with replacement parts

Absolutely. If they want a half-a-million a year number in a few years time, their service network REALLY has to grow tremendously, along with certification and training programs for third party servicing and repairs and ready availability of parts. ALL of this will factor into a 40k mass market car and automatically include the S and X and roadster along with it.

There is a long way to go for Tesla for sure, but they know the expectations, and know what will be required when the scale goes up.

 

[Max*]

Other than the fact that Tesla doesn't need a 12v battery replacement every year and the fact that it's easy to replace it and the fact that it costs $220, not $600, you might have a point.

Here's a way to repair the door microswitch for no cost:

Here's how to replace the 12v battery:
tesla replace 12v battery - YouTube

Here's how to replace the MCU with a salvage part:
tesla repair mcu - YouTube

Here's a bunch more Tesla repair videos:
Tesla repair - YouTube

It looks like Tesla will be just like any other car in that you will have cheaper DIY or independent shops which can repair or replace many parts.
Tesla service center repair is expensive just like dealer service for every other car but you do have options and 10 years from now with many more cars on the road, there will be a lot of independent repair options.

It's not no cost, my time has value.

 

[mspohr]

Other than the fact that Tesla doesn't need a 12v battery replacement every year and the fact that it's easy to replace it and the fact that it costs $220, not $600, you might have a point.

Here's how to replace the 12v battery:
tesla replace 12v battery - YouTube

Looks like the cost to replace the 12v battery at the service center is $144 ($120 for the battery itself).

 

[Max*]

Looks like the cost to replace the 12v battery at the service center is $144 ($120 for the battery itself).

$24 for labor? Got a link for that?

 

[mspohr]

$24 for labor? Got a link for that?

There's a whole thread on this subject:
DIY 12v replacement
Message #34 gives an installed cost of $144.
Subsequent messages quote a price of $122 for the battery alone... $22 for installation.

 

[Sasmania]

Pretty much salvage value. It's not a car, it's a gadget. How much is even the best 10yo gadget worth? What's an original 2007 iPhone worth beyond it's historical value? It's pretty useless.

In 15 years cars that aren't self-driving will have very limited utility. Heading towards hobbyist use only. You wouldn't want one as a daily driver because the alternatives will be so much more capable. Cars that require gasoline will be totally useless except in niche applications.

I agree with you, in that ALL cars, not just a 15 yr old Model S, will be "obsolete" by then. I think the automotive landscape will be so different in 15 years that we won't even recognize it from today, rendering almost anything from right now pretty worthless compared to historical trends. Remember, even a P100DL is going to seem as high tech as a rotary phone in 15 years.

However, if you look at this question in terms of the past, and how cars have depreciated historically, then I see no reason why a 15 yr old S wouldn't still have decent value depending on the state of the battery. Is it an original with 140 miles range? Or was it upgraded a year ago with a 200 pound 500 mile range battery?