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Elon "About to end range anxiety"
- Thread starter Lump
- Start date
my numbers are extremely simplified. I recall an estimate of 350,000 Gen 3 and 150,000 Gen 2. From Gigafactory PDFs, we know that 35 gWh/yr and 500,000 packs are to be dedicated to vehicles at full capacity. Making a huge assumption that all Gen 2 are 85 kWh, and Gen 3 are 60 kWh, we get 500,000 vehicles with total of 33.75 gWh a year. This huge assumption passes a sanity check so far.
Next, from countless threads, it is found that 5 to 10 kWh is not available in the Model S due to antibricking, HVAC, misc, etc. So this means that of a potential 60 kWh battery, maybe 50 or 55 kWh can be used for travel. Using Elon's 200 miles, I get the following numbers.
50 kWh = 50,000 Wh
50,000 Wh / 200 mi = 250 Wh/mi
...
55 kWh = 55,000 Wh
55,000 Wh / 200 mi = 275 Wh/mi
If the S85D, which is said by Elon to have a forerunner to the Gen 3 drive train uses an amount of energy per mile that is more than 35% or so than my predicted values, my calculations show a larger than 60 kWh battery will be required.
I would then follow up with a 65 kWh Gen 3 battery and see what number of Gen 2 vehicles will be able to have 85 kWh packs, but I would assume most if not all.
65 kWh - 5 kWh = 60 kWh (likely too optimistic)
60 KWh = 60,000 Wh
60,000 Wh / 200 mi = 300 Wh/mi
this is easily achieved with a smaller, more efficient vehicle. We're seeing this with Model S under ideal conditions already.
... EDIT...
(350,000 × 65 kWh Gen 3) + (100,000 × 85 kWh Gen 2) + (50,000 × 60 kWh Gen 2) = 34.25 gWh
This leaves only 2.14 % of the Gigafactory pack output unaccompanied.
I can't see 1/3 of S and X being the 60 kWh Though. Sorry for going so off topic.
Next, from countless threads, it is found that 5 to 10 kWh is not available in the Model S due to antibricking, HVAC, misc, etc. So this means that of a potential 60 kWh battery, maybe 50 or 55 kWh can be used for travel. Using Elon's 200 miles, I get the following numbers.
50 kWh = 50,000 Wh
50,000 Wh / 200 mi = 250 Wh/mi
...
55 kWh = 55,000 Wh
55,000 Wh / 200 mi = 275 Wh/mi
If the S85D, which is said by Elon to have a forerunner to the Gen 3 drive train uses an amount of energy per mile that is more than 35% or so than my predicted values, my calculations show a larger than 60 kWh battery will be required.
I would then follow up with a 65 kWh Gen 3 battery and see what number of Gen 2 vehicles will be able to have 85 kWh packs, but I would assume most if not all.
65 kWh - 5 kWh = 60 kWh (likely too optimistic)
60 KWh = 60,000 Wh
60,000 Wh / 200 mi = 300 Wh/mi
this is easily achieved with a smaller, more efficient vehicle. We're seeing this with Model S under ideal conditions already.
... EDIT...
(350,000 × 65 kWh Gen 3) + (100,000 × 85 kWh Gen 2) + (50,000 × 60 kWh Gen 2) = 34.25 gWh
This leaves only 2.14 % of the Gigafactory pack output unaccompanied.
I can't see 1/3 of S and X being the 60 kWh Though. Sorry for going so off topic.
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The one thing I didn't see mentioned, but I have to admit to not reading every word in this thread, is related to multi-target destination routing.
Unless you can specify multiple targets you either have to enter the final destination and guesstimate the extra cost to go through your intermediate points or only enter the first stop. In either case the range anxiety reducing support does not have the full information and it will not give you valid feedback specifying how much charge is needed to reach the final destination.
Unless you can specify multiple targets you either have to enter the final destination and guesstimate the extra cost to go through your intermediate points or only enter the first stop. In either case the range anxiety reducing support does not have the full information and it will not give you valid feedback specifying how much charge is needed to reach the final destination.
I picked up what I thought was an interesting bit from the Press release blogs (sorry, I deleted the specific link/quote).
Someone asked about range and he mentioned that 200 was a minimum and that most people expect ~220 (he may have said 10% more or something like that).
To me that suggested strongly that he expects the Model 3 to have at least 220 miles of range. That would be huge. I'll try to find the link, but it's lost somewhere in this never ending thread.
Someone asked about range and he mentioned that 200 was a minimum and that most people expect ~220 (he may have said 10% more or something like that).
To me that suggested strongly that he expects the Model 3 to have at least 220 miles of range. That would be huge. I'll try to find the link, but it's lost somewhere in this never ending thread.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I noticed that as well... he seemed very specific there and appeared to be drawing a line in the sand. Which is odd since the max range of the S60 is less than those magical 220 miles :-/
But then the Model 3 is likely smaller and might get 220 miles @ 90% with a 60kWh battery...
Nope. Read the press release 3x over and I see no mention of the Nav accounting for weather.
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
I haven't seen Elon say that the S85D drivetrain is the forerunner to the drivetrain for the Model 3. I have seen them say that it's the same drive train they're using in the Model X. I wouldn't count on the Model 3 having AWD (or at least not AWD on all models probably will be an option).
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Found it: Transport Evolved Live Blog: Teslas Press Conference to End Range Anxiety in Electric Cars - Transport Evolved
I had it wrong, here's the quote:
"A: Musk: 200 miles is minimum threshold for an electric car. We need 200+ miles in real world. Not 200 miles in 'AC off, driving on flat road' mode. "
then added:
"Musk: anything below 200 miles isn't passing grade. Most people looking for 20% more than that."
So it sounds like maybe 240 miles targeted in the Model 3?!! That would be amazing at the target price point!
mknox
Well-Known Member
I don't begrudge owners getting nice upgrades like this, but I sure did miss the mark with my purchases: I bought the (lower cost pre-paid) Service Plan the day before Elon revised the rules to say you didn't have to have it to maintain the warranty. I bought extended warranty primarily to cover any drive unit problems before the "unlimited" battery warranty was extended to the drive unit. Any yes, I bought the Tech Package for the Nav system. My timing sure sucks!
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
No, Tesla simply looks at your choices to figure out what smart buyers really want. It's all them showing you how much they appreciate your work!
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Completely agree. No AWD at 35k. But my guess is that Model 3 P60D will exist
I agree a Model 3 PxxD will exist I just don't think xx will = 60. I think Model 3 will have a denser battery pack and with the combination of 20% lower weight and a denser pack we'll see new capacities specific to the Model 3. With possibilities of different motors as well.
we've discussed this in several threads
Gen 3 Powertrain Speculation (based on current drive units)
and
Engineers: Lowest Wh/mile possible for Gen3 at 55mph? Battery pack size
and
Reading between the lines... 200 mile range with 35kWh battery?
among others
No one knows what we will see but I'm assuming a different physical pack size, different power usage, different engine options, different pack capacities.
In other words same Tesla tech, different package. Enough so that the numbers will be unique.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Thanks for finding the quote. I would be shocked if we saw 240 miles rated @90% in the base model.
Maybe the Model 3 / 45 will have 200 rated miles at 100%
And then the Model 3 / 60 will have 240 rated miles at 90%
(I wonder about the naming... Model S 60, Model S P85D... Model X 85, Model X P105D. Model 3 / 45, Model 3 P60D ?)
My apologies, I went back to look at the Dual Motor event and he did not specifically say Model 3. I still think that a 60 kWh battery on the 3 would meet all goals, and it makes sense. I can't see a smaller pack reaching 200 real world miles, or a 65 kWh Gen 3 and 60 kWh gen 2.
I wouldn't make that assumption at all, this certainly wouldn't be the first time that Tesla has said something would benefit the fleet even when everyone wasn't going to get it. Until there is some kind of confirmation otherwise (official and not speculation) people would just be setting themselves up for disappointment.
Zarwin
Member
Would love to be able to use the trip planning feature without being in the car. Plan out the trip on the Tesla website beforehand, and if logged into the site, it would be aware of my car's location/type/SOC etc just as if I were sitting in the driver's seat.
Mayhemm
Model S P85+ "Lola"
+1 It would definitely be nice to have support for waypoints along a given route. Until then, a workaround would be to manually record the results for the whole trip (start -> destination) and use the navigation computer for each of the waypoints.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Man that's ugly. Literally paper and pencil since you couldn't even print it out.
Yeah, waypoints are one of those high priority things that keep getting ignored in favor of flashier things...
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