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It has to start somewhere, if not now and with Elon and SpaceX, then it'll be later with someone else and we'll be that much later. Or are you saying we shouldn't even bother because it'll never happen? If that's the case then there are all sorts of people who probably agreed with you back in the 60's with the moon landings, and probably quite a few other significant events in history.

Yes, a colony on another planet would cost a huge amount of money ... right now. The more testing, researching, and pipe-dreaming we do the lower those costs will get.

If we never try, it'll never happen.
Exactly. I'm very much a child at heart. I still enjoy the Gerry Anderson shows 'THUNDERBIRDS', 'UFO', and 'SPACE: 1999'. It astounds me that by the time I learned man had gone to the Moon, we weren't going anymore. I have been rather paranoid since watching the movie 'CAPRICORN ONE' (1977), but I've always thought that we should go to Mars. I am extremely disappointed that we keep getting disaster movies about Mars, most recently 'The MARTIAN' (2015), but that the most optimistic flick was 'TOTAL RECALL' (1990), if your don't count 'The Martian Chronicles' (1980) miniseries. Certain things should have been done already, at least 35 years ago.

 
"get[ing] us off the planet after we've ruined it" is a pipe dream. I am a tremendous fan of Elon Musk for what he's done for electric transportation and because my Roadster is the most fun car I've ever owned. It's even more fun than my old Zap Xebra was, and in spite of its innumerable flaws that little rattletrap was tremendously fun to drive. Exploring space is a fascinating endeavor, but a self-sustaining colony on another planet would cost more than all the wealth of this planet, and even if we did establish such a colony, 99.9999% of us would still be left here.

As much as I admire Elon Musk, and as much as Space X is a success at privatizing near-Earth orbital launches, I think his Mars ambitions are nuts.

I do think that for him to engage with the new administration is better than if he boycotted it for its regressive, anti-science politics.

It has to start somewhere, if not now and with Elon and SpaceX, then it'll be later with someone else and we'll be that much later. Or are you saying we shouldn't even bother because it'll never happen? If that's the case then there are all sorts of people who probably agreed with you back in the 60's with the moon landings, and probably quite a few other significant events in history.

Yes, a colony on another planet would cost a huge amount of money ... right now. The more testing, researching, and pipe-dreaming we do the lower those costs will get.

If we never try, it'll never happen.

Exactly. I'm very much a child at heart. I still enjoy the Gerry Anderson shows 'THUNDERBIRDS', 'UFO', and 'SPACE: 1999'. It astounds me that by the time I learned man had gone to the Moon, we weren't going anymore. I have been rather paranoid since watching the movie 'CAPRICORN ONE' (1977), but I've always thought that we should go to Mars. I am extremely disappointed that we keep getting disaster movies about Mars, most recently 'The MARTIAN' (2015), but that the most optimistic flick was 'TOTAL RECALL' (1990), if your don't count 'The Martian Chronicles' (1980) miniseries. Certain things should have been done already, at least 35 years ago.


I am 68 years old. Before Sputnik went up I knew that people would go to the moon in my lifetime. A lot of people, inspired by science fiction, do not understand the magnitude of the difference between a moon mission and a Mars mission. The length of the mission alone means 150 times the cosmic ray exposure. The shielding alone would increase the weight of the capsule by orders of magnitude, even if we made the astronauts spend those two years in a ship as cramped as the moon astronauts endures for their 8-day voyage. Give them enough room to move around and sufficient shielding and you're probably talking a thousand times times the weight, or more. (Note that the ISS is within the Earth's magnetosphere, and thus protected from cosmic rays. The Apollo astronauts left the magnetosphere, but only for a few days, and they got significant levels of radiation. Send astronauts to Mars in the Apollo capsule and they'd be dead on arrival.)

With all that, I think we may send people to Mars, some day, maybe. But a self-sustaining colony on a planet with essentially no atmosphere, no magnetic field to shield from cosmic rays, and hardly any resources, I repeat, it's a pipe dream. The moon is really no more barren than Mars, and it's a lot closer, and we still have no colony there. We haven't even gone back since the end of the Apollo program.

Add to this that by the time we have the launch capacity to send the necessary supplies, robotics will have advanced to the point where the only reason to send humans will be for the "glory" of doing it. How many people here would be willing to pay an additional $25,000 a year in taxes, beyond what you're already paying, for the next decade, in order to pay for one manned mission to Mars and back, as the first step towards a colony in a hundred years? Because somebody's got to pay the astronomical cost, or it won't happen.
 
I am 68 years old. Before Sputnik went up I knew that people would go to the moon in my lifetime. A lot of people, inspired by science fiction, do not understand the magnitude of the difference between a moon mission and a Mars mission. The length of the mission alone means 150 times the cosmic ray exposure.
This is a realistic post. Will there be practical shielding designed? Perhaps. As far as we know the available technologies render the manned voyage implausible. But, implausible things happen, including the manned moon missions done before modern computing. As for costs, no question it will be astronomical.
I will not bet against it happening even within my lifetime and I am older than the OP by three years. My latest physical exam given me 35 years to go, so that is the time span within which I think this will actually happen. Remember, the pace of technological advance is accelerating.
 
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I am 68 years old. Before Sputnik went up I knew that people would go to the moon in my lifetime. A lot of people, inspired by science fiction, do not understand the magnitude of the difference between a moon mission and a Mars mission. The length of the mission alone means 150 times the cosmic ray exposure. The shielding alone would increase the weight of the capsule by orders of magnitude, even if we made the astronauts spend those two years in a ship as cramped as the moon astronauts endures for their 8-day voyage. Give them enough room to move around and sufficient shielding and you're probably talking a thousand times times the weight, or more. (Note that the ISS is within the Earth's magnetosphere, and thus protected from cosmic rays. The Apollo astronauts left the magnetosphere, but only for a few days, and they got significant levels of radiation. Send astronauts to Mars in the Apollo capsule and they'd be dead on arrival.)

With all that, I think we may send people to Mars, some day, maybe. But a self-sustaining colony on a planet with essentially no atmosphere, no magnetic field to shield from cosmic rays, and hardly any resources, I repeat, it's a pipe dream. The moon is really no more barren than Mars, and it's a lot closer, and we still have no colony there. We haven't even gone back since the end of the Apollo program.

Add to this that by the time we have the launch capacity to send the necessary supplies, robotics will have advanced to the point where the only reason to send humans will be for the "glory" of doing it. How many people here would be willing to pay an additional $25,000 a year in taxes, beyond what you're already paying, for the next decade, in order to pay for one manned mission to Mars and back, as the first step towards a colony in a hundred years? Because somebody's got to pay the astronomical cost, or it won't happen.
Yep, science is hard, exploration is expensive, and research takes time. All of that was true before the moon landings it will still be true after people land on mars. There will always be doubters and I'm sure there will be similar posts made before the next pipe dream turns into reality as well. In fact, I bet you could find dozens of them about some guy trying to start a car company from scratch - good thing he didn't listen. Or a couple of guys trying to build an airplane. Or launching a man into space. all of those were pipe dreams ... until they weren't.

I'm glad not everyone has your opinion or we wouldn't try to do anything that was hard, cost money, or couldn't be done over a weekend with a trip to Home Depot.
 
Yep, science is hard, exploration is expensive, and research takes time. All of that was true before the moon landings it will still be true after people land on mars. There will always be doubters and I'm sure there will be similar posts made before the next pipe dream turns into reality as well. In fact, I bet you could find dozens of them about some guy trying to start a car company from scratch - good thing he didn't listen. Or a couple of guys trying to build an airplane. Or launching a man into space. all of those were pipe dreams ... until they weren't.

I'm glad not everyone has your opinion or we wouldn't try to do anything that was hard, cost money, or couldn't be done over a weekend with a trip to Home Depot.
Thank you. You beat me to it! I love it when someone fluently communicates in sarcasm. The awesome thing about sarcasm is that it only works when you are absolutely correct. And you are.

By the way, it is interesting, and very appropriate in this discussion, that your avatar is Marvin the Paranoid Android, and mine is HAL 9000.
:D
 
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I am 68 years old. Before Sputnik went up I knew that people would go to the moon in my lifetime. A lot of people, inspired by science fiction, do not understand the magnitude of the difference between a moon mission and a Mars mission. The length of the mission alone means 150 times the cosmic ray exposure. The shielding alone would increase the weight of the capsule by orders of magnitude, even if we made the astronauts spend those two years in a ship as cramped as the moon astronauts endures for their 8-day voyage. Give them enough room to move around and sufficient shielding and you're probably talking a thousand times times the weight, or more. (Note that the ISS is within the Earth's magnetosphere, and thus protected from cosmic rays. The Apollo astronauts left the magnetosphere, but only for a few days, and they got significant levels of radiation. Send astronauts to Mars in the Apollo capsule and they'd be dead on arrival.)

With all that, I think we may send people to Mars, some day, maybe. But a self-sustaining colony on a planet with essentially no atmosphere, no magnetic field to shield from cosmic rays, and hardly any resources, I repeat, it's a pipe dream. The moon is really no more barren than Mars, and it's a lot closer, and we still have no colony there. We haven't even gone back since the end of the Apollo program.

Add to this that by the time we have the launch capacity to send the necessary supplies, robotics will have advanced to the point where the only reason to send humans will be for the "glory" of doing it. How many people here would be willing to pay an additional $25,000 a year in taxes, beyond what you're already paying, for the next decade, in order to pay for one manned mission to Mars and back, as the first step towards a colony in a hundred years? Because somebody's got to pay the astronomical cost, or it won't happen.
Yadda, yadda, yadda... I will reach 50 in July. I still think as I did when I was a 4-year-old. So there. :p

Things cost money and stuff. The U.S. spent billions to trillions during the Cold War. Then Peace Broke Out when Communism failed a good 15-to-20 years early in Russia, well ahead of schedule, without spawning the long planned for Global Thermonuclear War that was supposed to happen. That resulted in immediate calls on Capitol Hill to be 'fiscally responsible' by lowering military expenditures across the board, closing military bases, becoming more 'lean' as a fighting force and whatnot. Because obviously we had 'won', right? That couldn't be allowed. So during the George H. W. Bush Administration, it was determined that we desperately needed to use our huge stockpile of 'modern' weapons acquired during the decades long buildup of armaments to demonstrate our military might by 'Bombing Them Back into the Stone Age' and stuff. He got the excuse he wanted when Kuwait, a tiny country of barely 34% the area of San Bernardino County in California, begged for help against a big, bad, bully called Iraq (a country that had been our... 'Friend' versus Iran for some time), he was all too happy to participate. And for some reason, the whole 'War is Good' crowd never seems to have any problem with such expenditures. War is a great excuse to spend money -- and for someone else to make money. And all the so-called 'aerospace' companies do nothing whatsoever regarding space, but spend all their dough creating weapons, many of which haven't worked very well since they accidentally created cruise missiles, which work FAR better than anyone expected. The way I see it, always finding a new 'enemy' to blow up cannot possibly work, because you will eventually subjugate everyone in what amounts to being Imperial Rule. But you know what? You aren't going to run out of outer space. There's plenty of it. It literally goes on for at least 42 Googol of any unit of measure you'd prefer to choose beyond what most people would call 'forever'. Thus, with so much space to conquer, you will never, ever, EVER have to worry about it running out ahead of schedule, as happened with those friggin' pansy-arse REDS of the U.S.S.R. who threw up their hands and cried the Russian equivalent of '¡No Mas!' («Нет больше!", maybe?) in such an unmanly fashion. It is such an obvious thing to do, spending boundless amounts of money to explore unlimited space throughout all eternity, that I wondered why it wasn't being done. Y'know, instead of blowing up brown people.

My theory is that at some point during the Nixon Administration aliens landed on the White House lawn. They informed the President that they didn't want monkey boys like us outside of close orbit anymore. He agreed, and the Apollo program was cancelled. Shortly after, President Richard M. Nixon resigned in disgrace (after learning Marijuana cured Cancer), so Gerald R. Ford, Jr (born 54 years before me, to the day) took the position of President. When President Ford kept bumping his head, he apparently forgot the briefing about the aliens and didn't pass that information on to the President Elect, James E. Carter, in 1976. So the aliens, bored, and growing impatient, knocked Skylab out of orbit in frustration a few years later. Stupid humans here on Earth still didn't get the hint, so they started sending manned missions to low orbit in Space Shuttles, supposedly to be used to build larger platforms in orbit, to be used for future missions to the Moon, and later, Mars. Then, just as I was beginning my second semester in college, the Space Shuttle Challenger exploded shortly after takeoff. :( The aliens once again landed on the White House lawn, only to find a septuagenarian living there, who immediately told them to, "Go ahead, make my day!" while wielding a .44 MAGNUM with intent. The aliens were flummoxed, noted that it wasn't them, they didn't do it, but that they had warned Humans of the dangers of space travel using the archaic Terran technology we had available. They kindly suggested we take it slower from now on. So the administrative anchor was cast out and dragged NASA to an absolute dead stop halt. It was something like five years straight that most shuttle flights were classified Department of Defense missions, and the vessels were renamed as 'Orbiters' instead. Also, instead of flying with the bay doors, covered with solar panels, open to the Sun as they had been before, all their missions were conducted while flying inverted from that point forward. Which was mighty weird. Maybe the aliens didn't want anyone looking at them any more? I guess that's why the Hubble Space Telescope was... ~*ahem*~ rendered 'faulty' at first. Bottom line, we are in quarantine, and aren't allowed to leave this place until our probation is over. Yeah.

But hey, I could be wrong.
:D
 
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... I will not bet against it happening even within my lifetime and I am older than the OP by three years. My latest physical exam given me 35 years to go, so that is the time span within which I think this will actually happen. Remember, the pace of technological advance is accelerating.

I don't know how old the OP is. I'm 68 and the most I can hope for is another 20 years under the best possible circumstances. Ten years is more likely, barring accidents or fatal illnesses before then.

Yep, science is hard, exploration is expensive, and research takes time. All of that was true before the moon landings it will still be true after people land on mars. There will always be doubters and I'm sure there will be similar posts made before the next pipe dream turns into reality as well. In fact, I bet you could find dozens of them about some guy trying to start a car company from scratch - good thing he didn't listen. Or a couple of guys trying to build an airplane. Or launching a man into space. all of those were pipe dreams ... until they weren't.

I'm glad not everyone has your opinion or we wouldn't try to do anything that was hard, cost money, or couldn't be done over a weekend with a trip to Home Depot.

In hindsight it's easy to find people who were laughed at and who turned out to be right. It is a fallacy to use that to argue that any given pet project is likely to succeed. Because most wild projects never succeed, but we don't remember those. We only remember the ones that did.

Dream all you want. I'm all in favor of space exploration. I just don't subscribe to the Star Trek fallacy, which asserts that everything anyone imagines will one day become reality. Ever since Sputnik people have been predicting that we will colonize the galaxy. It's a logical thing to dream about, but vanishingly unlikely ever to happen.
 
I don't know how old the OP is. I'm 68 and the most I can hope for is another 20 years under the best possible circumstances. Ten years is more likely, barring accidents or fatal illnesses before then.

In hindsight it's easy to find people who were laughed at and who turned out to be right. It is a fallacy to use that to argue that any given pet project is likely to succeed. Because most wild projects never succeed, but we don't remember those. We only remember the ones that did.

Dream all you want. I'm all in favor of space exploration. I just don't subscribe to the Star Trek fallacy, which asserts that everything anyone imagines will one day become reality. Ever since Sputnik people have been predicting that we will colonize the galaxy. It's a logical thing to dream about, but vanishingly unlikely ever to happen.
Well, that's exactly what imagination is for! I'm a bit older that Elon Musk. I like his vision, I don't care if it is 'nuts'. I share his concerns, and I really like his course of action.

For instance, I graduated high school, looked around at my fellow graduates, thought about the notion that these people were 'Our FUTURE Leaders!' and determined we were all doomed. He sees things a bit more optimistically (but then, he didn't go to my high school). He made his first real fortune rather early in life, had become a multi-millionaire before I even started working at an e-commerce company myself. He got married and had five kids rather soon after.

Right about the same time, I was in my mid-thirties and was surprised to learn that co-workers who were more than ten years younger than me all thought they were older than I was. I didn't marry anyone, I have no children, and still firmly believe that in a world such as this (especially after the election this past November) the singular worst, most irresponsible thing I could do is bring a child into it -- because people here are CRAZY. But Elon has encouraged me to look at things a different way.

Luckily, should I change my mind, I have now matured enough so that hot chicks in their mid-twenties no longer think I am 'too young' for them, though I still maintain a 'youthful appearance' somehow. Apparently I started aging backward at some point, because I was never carded anywhere, for anything, ever, until AFTER I turned 21. Before that point people always thought I was older, even back when I was only 14. Still, these days people typically assume I am in my mid-twenties, until they talk to me, then they figure I ~*might*~ be in my early thirties instead. I only just started shaving last year, and still don't actually have a beard at all. Again -- I turn Fifty in July.

Rather than giving in to that ever-so-logical temptation of writing off humanity as I had, Elon chose to simply make the world... 'better'. Not just for his kids, but for everyone's Children. That is an idea that is 'vanishingly unlikely ever to happen', but he chose the course anyway. He has said in interviews that if he feels that success is at least an option, then something may well be worth the risk. It would have helped had he told me that 25 years ago, when I was actually 25.

There is another rather notoriously 'difficult' CEO named Steve Perlman that I like a lot. He understands that failure is a part of life. I often say that I have learned more about chess from the games I lost than any of the ones I won. He believes in the entrepreneurial spirit and how research can contribute to it. This is a rather lengthy video, around 1-1/2 hours, but if you are interested in technology and research, you just might like it:


I read a book ages ago that I really loved. If anyone here ever has the chance to speak with Elon face-to-face, I would appreciate your recommending it to him. It is 'Man Plus' by Frederik Pohl. It is a story of man's colonization of Mars. It is awesome.

You were 18 or so when I was born. I suspect that unlike me, you are not a fan of John Lennon's songwriting. That's too bad.

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
And the world will be as one
 
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Luckily, should I change my mind, I have now matured enough so that hot chicks in their mid-twenties no longer think I am 'too young' for them, though I still maintain a 'youthful appearance' somehow. Apparently I started aging backward at some point, because I was never carded anywhere, for anything, ever, until AFTER I turned 21. Before that point people always thought I was older, even back when I was only 14. Still, these days people typically assume I am in my mid-twenties, until they talk to me, then they figure I ~*might*~ be in my early thirties instead. I only just started shaving last year, and still don't actually have a beard at all. Again -- I turn Fifty in July.
I would really like to see this. Can you post a picture of you with one of your young hotties? Make sure you post a picture of Elon with one of his young hotties too, so we're not veering too far off topic.:)
 
I would really like to see this. Can you post a picture of you with one of your young hotties? Make sure you post a picture of Elon with one of his young hotties too, so we're not veering too far off topic.:)
I rarely post actual photos of myself on the internet. But I'll send you a private message with an attached photo of myself with my Niece. I hope that will suffice.
 
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........
I'm glad not everyone has your opinion or we wouldn't try to do anything that was hard, cost money, or couldn't be done over a weekend with a trip to Home Depot.

Home Depot: I can have something I can make, use and enjoy.
Mars: not so sure, (unless there are diamonds to bring back, sell and buy that paradise island back on earth)
On the other hand, just by just trying to get to Mars, something might be discovered that could save the planet from ourselves so we don't have to leave.
 
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