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Do they want him to pay unrealized capital gains tax on stock he hasn't sold? The dude owns 20% of a trillion dollar company that he started and that company is growing... he isn't Scrooge McDuck swimming in a pool of gold coins and hoarding his wealth from the rest of society. Any stock he does sell is hit with a very large tax bill... his "net worth" would drop more than 50% if he actually sold all of his stock. Of course he'd still be absurdly rich, and that deserves its own discussion, but calling him a freeloader is just stupid politics. That is why the media loves using "net worth" or wealth to play up disparities because it exaggerates how much people actually have by failing to include the taxes they'll pay if they ever try an access that value.

The term "fair share" must test well in focus groups or something because politicians keep saying it without ever actually defining it. The only thing we can know for sure is that whatever a successful person currently pays in taxes (even if it is 60 cents on the dollar), their "fair share" would be more.

A good chunk of the population knows nothing about how investment income works, nor do they know the difference between realized and unrealized wealth. All the news reports about the richest people in the world do nothing to educate people on how this works. They go on about Elon being worth x hundred billion like it's cash in the bank.

The people who are the biggest fans of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are either too poor or too young to have had any involvement in investing.
 
The problem with old farts running things is that you don’t know if they’ve rigged the system in their favor or just know how the world really works and have actual decent policies. The fact that we constantly hear of rich people breaking the law doesn’t help. Of course poor people break the law, maybe even in larger numbers, but we don’t hear about that in equal fashion.

Bottom line, good politicians have a hard time against demagogues and the press certainly doesn’t help.
 
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The problem with old farts running things is that you don’t know if they’ve rigged the system in their favor or just know how the world really works and have actual decent policies. The fact that we constantly hear of rich people breaking the law doesn’t help. Of course poor people break the law, maybe even in larger numbers, but we don’t hear about that in equal fashion.

Bottom line, good politicians have a hard time against demagogues and the press certainly doesn’t help.

The way the rich break the law tends to impact more people than the way the poor do. A poor person might rob a convenience store and the clerk might get hurt, but the Sackler family got millions hooked on opiods and killed quite a few of them. They have hidden much of their billions so the company can go bankrupt and they walk away.

Some of this reminds me of a Tonio K song

The character in the song seems even more familiar today than when it was recorded...

The poor tend to get caught and tend to suffer severe consequences for even minor crimes. The system we have today is rigged to get people into the system and keep them there as long as possible. One thing most penal systems do now is charge all sorts of fees and things for being in the system and if you don't pay the fees, it eventually turns into a crime and then the poor sod is back inside for not being able to afford the exorbitant fees they are being charged. People are also languishing in jail for years awaiting trial because they can't pay what would be moderate bail for anyone with any money (like $10K bail).

I've come to the conclusion over the last few years that we have a pretty severe white collar crime problem in this country (as well as many other developed countries) and prosecutors have not done much about it. That doesn't mean that all rich people are criminals. the percentage of wealthy people who are criminally inclined (commit crimes because they want to as opposed to forced into it by circumstances) is probably about the same as the rest of the population, but they also have the resources to get away with it that others don't have.
 
The way the rich break the law tends to impact more people than the way the poor do. A poor person might rob a convenience store and the clerk might get hurt, but the Sackler family got millions hooked on opiods and killed quite a few of them. They have hidden much of their billions so the company can go bankrupt and they walk away.

Some of this reminds me of a Tonio K song

The character in the song seems even more familiar today than when it was recorded...

The poor tend to get caught and tend to suffer severe consequences for even minor crimes. The system we have today is rigged to get people into the system and keep them there as long as possible. One thing most penal systems do now is charge all sorts of fees and things for being in the system and if you don't pay the fees, it eventually turns into a crime and then the poor sod is back inside for not being able to afford the exorbitant fees they are being charged. People are also languishing in jail for years awaiting trial because they can't pay what would be moderate bail for anyone with any money (like $10K bail).

I've come to the conclusion over the last few years that we have a pretty severe white collar crime problem in this country (as well as many other developed countries) and prosecutors have not done much about it. That doesn't mean that all rich people are criminals. the percentage of wealthy people who are criminally inclined (commit crimes because they want to as opposed to forced into it by circumstances) is probably about the same as the rest of the population, but they also have the resources to get away with it that others don't have.

Yeah, no. Low level criminals with a rap sheet a mile long are a dime a dozen. And they aren't the "stealing a loaf of bread" stuff. Assault, battery, domestic abuse, etc.

The opioid epidemic is a tragedy alright, but the Sacklers are just a convenient political scapegoat. It was PUBLIC POLICY that allowed the epidemic to flourish. Typical politicians, find a scapegoat for your own policy failures. I would also say that illegal drugs are worse - the street fentanyl, heroin and other assorted horrors. Our policy response? Instead of addiction treatment centers, we give out free needles. That is criminal in itself.

And white collar criminals are prosecuted - with one major exception - those with powerful political connections. Look no further than Ghislaine Maxwell. Sure she committed crimes, but her powerful clients were the ones who raped those girls. Why wasn't she given immunity to testify against the rapists? That's the story the newspapers are not writing about. Why? Because their own pet politicians would be the culprits. Disgusting.
 
Yeah, no. Low level criminals with a rap sheet a mile long are a dime a dozen. And they aren't the "stealing a loaf of bread" stuff. Assault, battery, domestic abuse, etc.

The opioid epidemic is a tragedy alright, but the Sacklers are just a convenient political scapegoat. It was PUBLIC POLICY that allowed the epidemic to flourish. Typical politicians, find a scapegoat for your own policy failures. I would also say that illegal drugs are worse - the street fentanyl, heroin and other assorted horrors. Our policy response? Instead of addiction treatment centers, we give out free needles. That is criminal in itself.

And white collar criminals are prosecuted - with one major exception - those with powerful political connections. Look no further than Ghislaine Maxwell. Sure she committed crimes, but her powerful clients were the ones who raped those girls. Why wasn't she given immunity to testify against the rapists? That's the story the newspapers are not writing about. Why? Because their own pet politicians would be the culprits. Disgusting.

My partner has been counseling domestic violence perps for years, mostly with guys on court ordered diversion. There are people who are batterers, but 90% are people who have trauma in their past and when they deal with the trauma their hyper-reactivity goes away. She's also had a lot of people sent to her agency for court ordered anger management for other types of things like low level assaults. Same pattern, the bulk of these people are hyper-reactive due to past trauma.

She did a pilot program putting DV clients who had graduated through a course of neuro-feedback. She gave them her suite of evaluation tests before and after and every single one of them showed reduction in their reactivity. Most significant decreases.

The Sacklers were one drug cartel among a number of legal drug cartels. It was public policy that allowed the cartels to operate above ground.

The realities of addiction is that all the treatment programs in the world don't work until the addicts are ready to quit. With these sorts of things damage control is the only thing that works in the short term. Needle exchanges give the addicts a better chance to stay alive until they are ready to get clean.

I personally have zero interest in recreational drugs. I don't like the effects of the legal recreational drugs (alcohol and marijuana). I am also someone who doesn't get hooked on anything. The last thing I want in stressful circumstances is to escape into any substance. However I have come to the conclusion that the best thing for society is to legalize all vices and bring them above ground and regulated.

When something has demand and is made illegal, all it creates is a black market to satisfy that demand. If it's legal and regulated, most of the crime that derives from the black market vanishes and government agencies get tax revenue from that business activity. Plus anybody involved in that trade has a legal, above ground recourse if they get hurt in some way.

Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell slipped away from being brought to justice much longer than they should. Alex Acosta when he was US Attorney for the Southern District of Florida had a strong case against Epstein back in 2008, but let him off with a hand slap. Most recently Acosta was Secretary of Labor from 2017 to 2019. A child predator was allowed to run free for most of another decade.

As the public began to become aware of Epstein's crimes, the pressure was on prosecutors to indict him and not let him go free this time. He killed himself when it became clear he wasn't going to skate this time.

Too frequently when someone wealthy does goes to prison, it's only after it's become a major news story and the public are clamoring for justice. Sometimes the wealthy go down without public fanfare, but they get away with crime too often.

I have a feeling that a chunk of this thread is getting moved to chit chat...
 
My partner has been counseling domestic violence perps for years, mostly with guys on court ordered diversion. There are people who are batterers, but 90% are people who have trauma in their past and when they deal with the trauma their hyper-reactivity goes away. She's also had a lot of people sent to her agency for court ordered anger management for other types of things like low level assaults. Same pattern, the bulk of these people are hyper-reactive due to past trauma.

She did a pilot program putting DV clients who had graduated through a course of neuro-feedback. She gave them her suite of evaluation tests before and after and every single one of them showed reduction in their reactivity. Most significant decreases.

The Sacklers were one drug cartel among a number of legal drug cartels. It was public policy that allowed the cartels to operate above ground.

The realities of addiction is that all the treatment programs in the world don't work until the addicts are ready to quit. With these sorts of things damage control is the only thing that works in the short term. Needle exchanges give the addicts a better chance to stay alive until they are ready to get clean.

I personally have zero interest in recreational drugs. I don't like the effects of the legal recreational drugs (alcohol and marijuana). I am also someone who doesn't get hooked on anything. The last thing I want in stressful circumstances is to escape into any substance. However I have come to the conclusion that the best thing for society is to legalize all vices and bring them above ground and regulated.

When something has demand and is made illegal, all it creates is a black market to satisfy that demand. If it's legal and regulated, most of the crime that derives from the black market vanishes and government agencies get tax revenue from that business activity. Plus anybody involved in that trade has a legal, above ground recourse if they get hurt in some way.

Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell slipped away from being brought to justice much longer than they should. Alex Acosta when he was US Attorney for the Southern District of Florida had a strong case against Epstein back in 2008, but let him off with a hand slap. Most recently Acosta was Secretary of Labor from 2017 to 2019. A child predator was allowed to run free for most of another decade.

As the public began to become aware of Epstein's crimes, the pressure was on prosecutors to indict him and not let him go free this time. He killed himself when it became clear he wasn't going to skate this time.

Too frequently when someone wealthy does goes to prison, it's only after it's become a major news story and the public are clamoring for justice. Sometimes the wealthy go down without public fanfare, but they get away with crime too often.

I have a feeling that a chunk of this thread is getting moved to chit chat...

At least we’re managing to stay civil 😄, thank you for that. Societal addiction management is an interesting issue that has no clear cut right answer. If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d research more about what they do in places like South Korea. Their huge capital city Seoul, has (compared to American big cities) no homeless. They have addiction treatment centers. Do they use coercion? You will be cured or have your addiction managed whether you like it or not? Probably. They have a very strong conservative culture which includes a heavy dose of shaming. While I am as a free choice proponent as anyone else, I have a hard time seeing how the Korean approach is wrong.
 
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At least we’re managing to stay civil 😄, thank you for that. Societal addiction management is an interesting issue that has no clear cut right answer. If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d research more about what they do in places like South Korea. Their huge capital city Seoul, has (compared to American big cities) no homeless. They have addiction treatment centers. Do they use coercion? You will be cured or have your addiction managed whether you like it or not? Probably. They have a very strong conservative culture which includes a heavy dose of shaming. While I am as a free choice proponent as anyone else, I have a hard time seeing how the Korean approach is wrong.

I don't think I've ever called anybody names online. My partner has confronted many people who like to argue online over time with "do you want peace r do you want to be 'right', pick one." I see it a little differently, I see the choice between being seen as right (people who just want to win the argument), or wanting to get it right. The latter don't care what others think about their opinions, but the goal is to thrash out ideas and let the best ideas win. Who cares which mind it came from. I prefer to get it right than anyone seeing me as right.

No matter how good my logical argument, some people will think I'm an idiot. I learned that early on, I was always the family idiot and my ideas were rarely acknowledged.

Cultures tend to motivate people to be good cultural citizens in two ways: guilt or shame. Guilt encourages people from an early age to develop an internal compass of right and wrong and if they do wrong, they are plagued with guilt. Shame is more about how others think of a person's actions (or the perception of them). All cultures have both, but all emphasize one over the other.

European based cultures have more of a guilt based motivation and most Asian cultures are more shame based. The concept of "saving face" comes from shame based cultures. European cultures had more of a shame element at one time, like locking people in the stocks in the middle of town or having to wear a scarlet letter, but mostly European and those cultures derived from Europe (like the US) are guilt based.

Punishment works to curb short term behavior in any culture and it has more of an impact when there is a shame element, but ultimately it doesn't work to truly change behavior at the root. Our penal system now is built around a cultural shame model that has been obsolete for a long time. In some sub-cultures having done time is a badge of honor. At that point the penal system just becomes a right of passage, not anything to curb behavior.

The only people who change in the system now are those who either get a clue on their own, or they stand to lose socially for being in jail/prison (those further up the socio-economic ladder where being an ex-con is a negative thing). Those who don't get an internal clue might just get out and continue where they left off, but are more cagey about it so the neighbors don't find out.

In a shame culture, mandatory rehab might work better because the approval of all the person's peers is on the line. In a culture where there is a sub-culture of drug users, that motivation doesn't exist. People can just change their circle of peers if they want to continue.

After the Vietnam War the VA thought they were going to be flooded with addicts trying to get off the drugs they did in Vietnam. When they didn't they did a study and concluded that the population is broken down into three groups:
10% of people never turn to drugs no matter what happens
10% of people are born addicts and are highly likely to get addicted to anything unless they are careful
80% are situational addicts, they turn to substances when they are trying to escape something emotionally. When the situation changes, the desire to use the substances goes away.

If we worked on the underlying problems that are driving people to use drugs, drug use will plummet. Except for the 10% of born addicts, drug use is a symptom.
 
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Interesting tweet exchange from Elon 8 hours ago…

9972AD5C-8022-478A-82B0-46C8D85A82BD.jpeg
 
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When something has demand and is made illegal, all it creates is a black market to satisfy that demand. If it's legal and regulated, most of the crime that derives from the black market vanishes and government agencies get tax revenue from that business activity.
For some reason, politicians and people forget what happened during prohibition.
No better example of extreme negative consequences of making a vice illegal.
 
I don't think I've ever called anybody names online. My partner has confronted many people who like to argue online over time with "do you want peace r do you want to be 'right', pick one." I see it a little differently, I see the choice between being seen as right (people who just want to win the argument), or wanting to get it right. The latter don't care what others think about their opinions, but the goal is to thrash out ideas and let the best ideas win. Who cares which mind it came from. I prefer to get it right than anyone seeing me as right.

No matter how good my logical argument, some people will think I'm an idiot. I learned that early on, I was always the family idiot and my ideas were rarely acknowledged.

Cultures tend to motivate people to be good cultural citizens in two ways: guilt or shame. Guilt encourages people from an early age to develop an internal compass of right and wrong and if they do wrong, they are plagued with guilt. Shame is more about how others think of a person's actions (or the perception of them). All cultures have both, but all emphasize one over the other.

European based cultures have more of a guilt based motivation and most Asian cultures are more shame based. The concept of "saving face" comes from shame based cultures. European cultures had more of a shame element at one time, like locking people in the stocks in the middle of town or having to wear a scarlet letter, but mostly European and those cultures derived from Europe (like the US) are guilt based.

Punishment works to curb short term behavior in any culture and it has more of an impact when there is a shame element, but ultimately it doesn't work to truly change behavior at the root. Our penal system now is built around a cultural shame model that has been obsolete for a long time. In some sub-cultures having done time is a badge of honor. At that point the penal system just becomes a right of passage, not anything to curb behavior.

The only people who change in the system now are those who either get a clue on their own, or they stand to lose socially for being in jail/prison (those further up the socio-economic ladder where being an ex-con is a negative thing). Those who don't get an internal clue might just get out and continue where they left off, but are more cagey about it so the neighbors don't find out.

In a shame culture, mandatory rehab might work better because the approval of all the person's peers is on the line. In a culture where there is a sub-culture of drug users, that motivation doesn't exist. People can just change their circle of peers if they want to continue.

After the Vietnam War the VA thought they were going to be flooded with addicts trying to get off the drugs they did in Vietnam. When they didn't they did a study and concluded that the population is broken down into three groups:
10% of people never turn to drugs no matter what happens
10% of people are born addicts and are highly likely to get addicted to anything unless they are careful
80% are situational addicts, they turn to substances when they are trying to escape something emotionally. When the situation changes, the desire to use the substances goes away.

If we worked on the underlying problems that are driving people to use drugs, drug use will plummet. Except for the 10% of born addicts, drug use is a symptom.
Interesting argument for drug addiction, however, it does not address the large population of violent offenders for murder, rape, and sexual assault that need to be imprisoned to protect others in our society.
 
What does he mean by "not make it past the next recession"? That they're going to die or go broke? Either way if "not many" make it past some point in time either financially or physically, that isn't a recession, that's a major disaster.

I think he's saying it relative to there be less discounted money available to float startups so their costs will climb, there will be no saving grace of ridiculously priced initial public offerings, fewer venture capitalist dollars, as well as investors dumping no-profit companies. Some of these startups have no plans to make a profit for the next few years.

And this transformation is already happening. In the last month or so companies with high price to sales ratios were being sold for more stable companies that generate lots of cash. If it continues it could get ugly in places like the bay area.
 
For some reason, politicians and people forget what happened during prohibition.
No better example of extreme negative consequences of making a vice illegal.

Herbert Hoover put together a committee of pro-prohibitionists to determine how to make prohibition work and they concluded it was impossible. When a group of people who really want something concludes it's impossible, it's probably impossible.

Interesting argument for drug addiction, however, it does not address the large population of violent offenders for murder, rape, and sexual assault that need to be imprisoned to protect others in our society.

My partner being both a lawyer and a Psychologist has gotten into forensic Psychology. They do Psych evaluations on people accused of crimes. They have enough of a reputation they are getting clients in Seattle now.

People in the criminal justice system can be broken down into two categories: people who don't want to break the law, but are driven there by circumstances (often poverty), or something Psychological (PTSD, mental illness, impulse control problems, etc.), or they just had a lapse of judgement. The other group are criminally inclined. They break the law because they can.

The former group feels bad about their crimes, even though sometimes they put up a tough front. A good forensic Psychologist can spot this. These people need some form of rehabilitation to get at the reasons they did what they did and fix them. Get them the right kind of treatment and they don't crime again. A few of this group can't be rehabilitated because of something damaged in their brains. These are usually the people with very bad impulse control problems combined with something else like lusting after children or a hard wired instability in emotional control. They are relatively rare.

The latter group is small, maybe 10% of criminals. They don't feel remorse and there is no rehabilitating them. These people belong in prison.

If we switched to rehabilitating those we could and locked up those we know we can't, we could probably get rid of 80% of our prisons.

I think he's saying it relative to there be less discounted money available to float startups so their costs will climb, there will be no saving grace of ridiculously priced initial public offerings, fewer venture capitalist dollars, as well as investors dumping no-profit companies. Some of these startups have no plans to make a profit for the next few years.

And this transformation is already happening. In the last month or so companies with high price to sales ratios were being sold for more stable companies that generate lots of cash. If it continues it could get ugly in places like the bay area.

Out of context it looked like he was talking about people, not companies. This makes a bit more sense now.

For a healthy economy we need a constant churn of start ups exploring new ideas the established companies don't want to explore. In the last 40 years small companies have been gobbled up by the large corporations rather than be allowed to grow big and that's hurt us too. But we do need t feed start ups to keep the churn going.

Elon recently sold quite a bit of stock. I wonder if he plans to become a venture capitalist? That actually would be a good thing in the long run.
 
A good chunk of the population knows nothing about how investment income works, nor do they know the difference between realized and unrealized wealth. All the news reports about the richest people in the world do nothing to educate people on how this works. They go on about Elon being worth x hundred billion like it's cash in the bank.

The people who are the biggest fans of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are either too poor or too young to have had any involvement in investing.
people like warren and sanders are just two more on a long list of demagogues.
they prey on people who are incredibly financially ignorant.
 
For a healthy economy we need a constant churn of start ups exploring new ideas the established companies don't want to explore. In the last 40 years small companies have been gobbled up by the large corporations rather than be allowed to grow big and that's hurt us too. But we do need t feed start ups to keep the churn going.

Yep. Big companies with lots of cash have been doing that but they are getting heat for stifling competition. There's a change in oversight these days so we'll see if they have any luck going forward.

There's some nice tax loopholes for investors in start-ups. They get a $10M tax free write off and they can duplicate that via gifting to family and friends. Funny how tax laws that might make sense end up poorly written.
 
Earlier someone was talking about billionaire money, realized, and unrealized assets. One way Elon gets by with no salary is taking loans from Tesla via his Tesla stock/stock options while avoiding payroll taxes on income and deducting loan interest. Win-win.
 
people like warren and sanders are just two more on a long list of demagogues.
they prey on people who are incredibly financially ignorant.

Robert Heinlein quipped that democracy only works when the common person has the knowledge of an aristocrat.

Yep. Big companies with lots of cash have been doing that but they are getting heat for stifling competition. There's a change in oversight these days so we'll see if they have any luck going forward.

There's some nice tax loopholes for investors in start-ups. They get a $10M tax free write off and they can duplicate that via gifting to family and friends. Funny how tax laws that might make sense end up poorly written.

Tax law is vastly complex to begin with and unscrupulous legislators slip easter eggs into tax bills for their buddies in the flurry of amendments and nobody notices until the poor sods who have to implement the new law comb through the details.

I read that around 1964 there was a hefty tax credit slipped into the tax code for people born in 1929 on Long Island, New York with a net worth in some narrow range. It was a one time hand out to Jackie Kennedy.

Earlier someone was talking about billionaire money, realized, and unrealized assets. One way Elon gets by with no salary is taking loans from Tesla via his Tesla stock/stock options while avoiding payroll taxes on income and deducting loan interest. Win-win.

That may have been me. When you have the kind of assets Elon has without a desire for a "look at me" lifestyle, there are many ways to generate income to live on. He has sold some Tesla stock before. Invest that money in something that returns an income and you have a nice steady stream of money to live on.

Right now he's sitting on a pile of cash from selling all his houses. He made a healthy profit on all of them. Even if he hadn't sold any Tesla stock this year he'd be looking at a tax bill that would make most of us faint.

I've thought about the scale of wealth. For someone whose net worth is $10,000, an expense of $100 is 1% of their entire net worth. For someone worth $1 million, the same expense is 0.01% of their net worth. Upper middle class people don't tend to sweat an unexpected $100 expense from time to time because it's down in the noise.

For someone worth $10 billion, an expense that is 0.01% of their new worth is $1 million. Sometimes people who have been very wealthy most or all their lives say some pretty insensitive things because they can lay their hands on what most people consider vast sums of money with little effort.

Elon may have borrowed against his Tesla stock, but up until 2020 he was paid a salary at Tesla, though it was only around $50K. His compensation at SpaceX has not been disclosed because it's a private company, but it might have been a couple of hundred thousand a year. His Tesla salary went to zero in 2020 and he may have done the same at SpaceX. If he invested the proceeds from his houses in some kind of income producing investment, that would more than replace his salary at both companies.

He had a pretty decent payout from Paypal back in the day too. I know he invested most of it in Tesla and SpaceX, but he may have held back a bit for personal insurance and that might have been invested conservatively.

Once you have a few billion, making another billion is not difficult. Most of the developed world has taken the attitude that wealthy people need more government help than the poor over the last 40 years. The stupid wealthy are quite capable of blowing their entire fortune and ending up in poverty, but anyone with wealth and a little wisdom can remain wealthy pretty much no matter what happens.

The wealthy who only think about being seen being wealthy don't want the bottom tiers of society to get anything, but if they have two brain cells to rub together they would realize trickle up economics benefits the rich in the end. If the bottom of the economic scale gets a boost, they spend that money very quickly. Some of it will be wasted, but the bulk will go into necessities they couldn't afford before.

That money in turn will circulate in the economy and have a multiplier effect. In the end the rich, who own most of the capital, will see bigger returns on their investments and will get richer. There is a lot of hand wringing about how the rich got richer in the pandemic, but it's because of this effect. Some companies like Amazon were in the perfect position to grow from the pandemic and made insane profits, but most companies that weren't hurt badly by the pandemic came out of it fairly healthy financially.
 
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