Elon Tweet: Model 3

[davewill]

Hopefully current owners can reserve first, ideally in order of their VIN. The number of reservations will be insane.

Maybe. Folks shopping in that price range won't be so happy to put multiple thousands down way ahead of time. I remember that reserving my LEAF way back when needed a mere $99. It's a completely different market and will require a LOT of tweaking of Tesla's normal sales and marketing.

 

[sub]

Maybe. Folks shopping in that price range won't be so happy to put multiple thousands down way ahead of time. I remember that reserving my LEAF way back when needed a mere $99. It's a completely different market and will require a LOT of tweaking of Tesla's normal sales and marketing.

i don't see a deposit that low and I hope I'm right. I would prefer 2-3k. If they do $100 they will have no idea of real orders. I'm thinking I'll reserve at least two and I'm sure I'm not alone in that one. It would be nice if they reveal the two versions that have been mentioned at the same time.

 

[AMPd]

I will make it my mission to be one of the first to order!
Sig Red 001 Model 3 shall be mine!

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe. Folks shopping in that price range won't be so happy to put multiple thousands down way ahead of time. I remember that reserving my LEAF way back when needed a mere $99. It's a completely different market and will require a LOT of tweaking of Tesla's normal sales and marketing.

It is a completely different market AND Tesla is a completely different company. I'm happy to have both meet in the middle. However, if you peruse this forum and Tesla's FB page for starters, you'll find that there's a rather large segment of people around the world waiting with bated breath for the Model 3. Tesla can keep right on truckin' as they are and they'll have plenty of reservations to fill without having to cater differently to the market.

 

[davewill]

i don't see a deposit that low and I hope I'm right. I would prefer 2-3k. If they do $100 they will have no idea of real orders. I'm thinking I'll reserve at least two and I'm sure I'm not alone in that one. It would be nice if they reveal the two versions that have been mentioned at the same time.

I can't say I actually expect that myself. But I do think that there needs to be some radical shift. The Model 3 should sell at much higher volumes than the S has...hence the need for the gigafactory. That says to me they need change things quite significantly.

It is a completely different market AND Tesla is a completely different company. I'm happy to have both meet in the middle. However, if you peruse this forum and Tesla's FB page for starters, you'll find that there's a rather large segment of people around the world waiting with bated breath for the Model 3. Tesla can keep right on truckin' as they are and they'll have plenty of reservations to fill without having to cater differently to the market.

Sure, there are plenty of Model S owners and wannabe owners who are interested. That may not be as much as Tesla needs, though. My point is that the Model 3 should be quite a different market from the Model S. Picture a big knee in the sales graph. If it's just going to sell incrementally better than the Model S, I'm not sure that's enough.

 

[smartypnz]

Reservation amount $36K - my guess.

 

[RobStark]

 

[dhanson865]

Maybe. Folks shopping in that price range won't be so happy to put multiple thousands down way ahead of time. I remember that reserving my LEAF way back when needed a mere $99. It's a completely different market and will require a LOT of tweaking of Tesla's normal sales and marketing.

I was doing the math in a conversation earlier today assuming $3,000 per reservation and 50,000 reservations

That is assuming all regular not signature (sig reservations will be higher, maybe $15,000 or $20,000)

And of course the reservations will trickle in slowly until after the March 2016 unveil. But then you should see a flurry of reservations pushing expected deliveries for new orders out into 2018 at some point.

 

[AlanSqB]

Sure, there are plenty of Model S owners and wannabe owners who are interested. That may not be as much as Tesla needs, though. My point is that the Model 3 should be quite a different market from the Model S. Picture a big knee in the sales graph. If it's just going to sell incrementally better than the Model S, I'm not sure that's enough.

I think 2k is probably right on the money for the first year or so of pre-orders. That's probably going to get them sold out to at least a year of production, maybe two. After that, we'll probably see a drop to $1k or so. That would proabalby drive at least another year or so of production.

I would assume we're going to go at least 3 years before you can order one of these without a reservation. That's just my WAG.

 

[Grendal]

My BS guesses:

Reservations for general production will be $2000 or $1000.

Reservations for Signatures will be $5000.

There will be 5000 Signatures.

By the time it reaches production there will be more (maybe a lot more) than 200,000 reservations in place.

There will be a Model S and Model X upgrade battery pack using the Model 3 battery at least six months prior to Model 3 production.

It will be 9 months in before a $35K car leaves the factory. There will be that much demand for the fully loaded, max battery pack version. I'd say over a year but these customers wouldn't be willing to wait and Tesla will have to adjust to that.

Let the fun begin.

 

[AlanSqB]

I would normally be inclined to agree with you, but after the Sigs, I think it's going to have to be "any configuration (with a reservation) goes." If that doesn't happen, the media is going to be full of "I told you so's" who can't wait to chortle on about how TSLA can't make a $35k car.

 

[gregincal]

I would normally be inclined to agree with you, but after the Sigs, I think it's going to have to be "any configuration (with a reservation) goes." If that doesn't happen, the media is going to be full of "I told you so's" who can't wait to chortle on about how TSLA can't make a $35k car.

Just like they did with the Model S and are now doing with the Model X. I don't think it will stop Tesla releasing it how they want to.

 

[Grendal]

I would normally be inclined to agree with you, but after the Sigs, I think it's going to have to be "any configuration (with a reservation) goes." If that doesn't happen, the media is going to be full of "I told you so's" who can't wait to chortle on about how TSLA can't make a $35k car.

By the time the Model 3 reaches production, Tesla will be really really low on funds from all the preparation. Production will start out slow and Tesla will need to max out their profits until they reach full production. So I would guess that maxed out versions will leave the factory for a while. People will have reserved the $35K version so they can't go on too much about it.

 

[davewill]

By the time the Model 3 reaches production, Tesla will be really really low on funds from all the preparation. Production will start out slow and Tesla will need to max out their profits until they reach full production. So I would guess that maxed out versions will leave the factory for a while. People will have reserved the $35K version so they can't go on too much about it.

Will they? I can't see myself putting $2K down for 3+ years on a $35K car. If they do have a high reservation fee, the $35K model may end up like the S40...MIA. That would be VERY bad.

 

[Zarwin]

Also to take into account in the US market will be the people hoping to catch the tail end of the federal tax credit before it starts phasing out. I know its been discussed but don't know the "math" of how soon after Model 3 production starts it will start phasing phase out. That might be an incentive to go for the Sig (if they offer it) to try to get the full credit maybe?

 

[RobStark]

By the time the Model 3 reaches production, Tesla will be really really low on funds from all the preparation. Production will start out slow and Tesla will need to max out their profits until they reach full production. So I would guess that maxed out versions will leave the factory for a while. People will have reserved the $35K version so they can't go on too much about it.

You reserve a Founder's Series, a Signature Series or a standard Model 3.

No reservation on "$35k" version. Once you get called to configure you can opt for leather, bigger battery, Pano roof, AWD whatever your heart desires and wallet can tolerate.

 

[AlanSqB]

So what you're saying is that those who get reservations are going to be forced into buying higher level options like the sigs? That doesn't exactly make sense.

If I have reservation #3 and I want mine bargain basement, why wouldn't I be able to order it without any upgrades? I understand the sigs have limited configuration options, but the general reservations?

 

[RobStark]

Will they? I can't see myself putting $2K down for 3+ years on a $35K car. If they do have a high reservation fee, the $35K model may end up like the S40...MIA. That would be VERY bad.

Unlike the "$50k Model S" the Model 3 has an Elon Musk guarantee of 200 real world mile range.

S40 was discontinued because uptake rate was under 3% due to 140-160 mile range.

Uptake rate on base Model 3 with 200 real world mile range will not be less than 10%.

If Tesla MIAs the base Model 3 because profit margin is too low then it will be obvious to all Tesla pulled a bait and switch. That would be very bad. I don't think Elon is that stupid.

Tesla has historically put Performance orders ahead of base orders taken during same time frame. But it does not hold base orders indefinitely while processing new Performance orders.

I know plenty of people that can pay cash for Mercedes S Class sedan but would never do so because they think spending that kind of money on any car is just plain stupid. Including Model S.

But would be willing to put down deposit on Model 3 to get first in line and guarantee a $7500 Fed Credit.


Model X has 20k American reservations and 30k total global reservations.

I can see 50k reservations by end of March 2016 for Model 3 with $2500 deposit and over 100k reservations by Job 1.

 

[S'toon]

Just curious. Couple of you folks who are current Model S owners are saying you're going to buy Model 3s. Would this be as a second car? Or "downgrading?" Model S too big for your needs/tastes? Some other reason I'm not thinking of atm?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My BS guesses:

Reservations for general production will be $2000 or $1000.

Reservations for Signatures will be $5000.

There will be 5000 Signatures.

By the time it reaches production there will be more (maybe a lot more) than 200,000 reservations in place.

There will be a Model S and Model X upgrade battery pack using the Model 3 battery at least six months prior to Model 3 production.

It will be 9 months in before a $35K car leaves the factory. There will be that much demand for the fully loaded, max battery pack version. I'd say over a year but these customers wouldn't be willing to wait and Tesla will have to adjust to that.

Let the fun begin.

Haha, I can't wait. Elon's announcement today has me all stoked for March 2016. I'm hoping to be a Model 3 driver by the 2018/9 timeframe.