Elon Tweet: No 'significantly new consumer-facing technology' in Model 3

[JSkrehot]

I doubt we'll ever get anything out of tesla other than the "simpler" narrative. There's a ton of possible reasons, including not being able to design a production line for 3 different engines quick enough (RWD, AWD F/R), potential quality control/software development issues, and even a potential 'profitability' issue where they can't make the AWD option immediately profitable at the price they want to charge.




To be 100% fair, the $7500 drops to $3750 for 6 months after Tesla hits 200k. Assuming the worst here, 6-9 months AFTER the start of production, you still likely are going to get the 50% credit. Still a $7250 "cost".

I've only been following Tesla since March 31st of 2016 and I already know 6-9 months means 1 year minimum.

 

[3PHASE]

If Tesla does some day use a HUD, hopefully it looks better than this one.

 

[JSkrehot]

I'll "weight" and see how much lighter the Model 3 is than the Model S and then try and figure out why its not as quick as the model S.

A 3 with comparable battery to a S will be faster, only an S with a larger battery will be faster.

 

[tomas]

Space shuttle control panel. You want this?

 

[xav-]

Let's keep it simple Elon! No automated door handles, no falcon wing doors... no "spaceship controls". A freaking 15 inch monitor in the center is already 100 times better than anything in the competition!

And "no AWD at first" is much better than "AWD vehicles will be delivered first".

And simple = less delays = more reliable = less costly to repair

Let's get the model 3 on time and fix AP20

 

[Alketi]

A 3 with comparable battery to a S will be faster, only an S with a larger battery will be faster.

This assumes same gauge wiring/buses, same inverter, same motors. Too many assumptions for a base $35K car.

Count on Elon probably wanting to beat the BMW M3 in acceleration (for bragging rights) and don't count on anything more, or you may end up disappointed.

That means the high-end guardband of P75DL acceleration would be ~3.7s 0-60.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Let's keep it simple Elon! No automated door handles, no falcon wing doors... no "spaceship controls". A freaking 15 inch monitor in the center is already 100 times better than anything in the competition!

And "no AWD at first" is much better than "AWD vehicles will be delivered first".

And simple = less delays = more reliable = less costly to repair

Let's get the model 3 on time and fix AP20

Agree! Getting Model 3 on time with Intel AP1 (or EyeQ4) is fine by me!

 

[diamond.g]

Agree! Getting Model 3 on time with Intel AP1 (or EyeQ4) is fine by me!

I would be surprised if they went back to Mobileye for cameras after the blowup they had....

 

[Yggdrasill]

This assumes same gauge wiring/buses, same inverter, same motors. Too many assumptions for a base $35K car.

Count on Elon probably wanting to beat the BMW M3 in acceleration (for bragging rights) and don't count on anything more, or you may end up disappointed.

That means the high-end guardband of P75DL acceleration would be ~3.7s 0-60.

3.7 seconds wouldn't be Ludicrous. It would barely be Insane. I see no reason why Tesla wouldn't offer a top spec acceleration of under 3.0 seconds. As I said here: Elon Tweet: No 'significantly new consumer-facing technology' in Model 3

 

[Reciprocity]

Let's keep it simple Elon! No automated door handles, no falcon wing doors... no "spaceship controls". A freaking 15 inch monitor in the center is already 100 times better than anything in the competition!

And "no AWD at first" is much better than "AWD vehicles will be delivered first".

And simple = less delays = more reliable = less costly to repair

Let's get the model 3 on time and fix AP20

I agree. People seem to think that the second motor just instantly zaps into existence. Sure, if they where sourcing them from some other company, but Telsa builds both motors. Also, Elon has made a commitment to getting as many cars into peoples has for Tax incentives. Once they hit 200,000, depending on timing, they will have a limited window to fulfill cars for the tax credits. Then they are gone. Anything to increase that number will really help the cause.

Also, HUDs are not just simple plug in add-ons. We do not want a repeat the FWD issues. KISS, keep it simple.

 

[dhanson865]

I can imagine a situation where the motor is the bottleneck on production. I mean, logically it's batteries, but imagine a concern about motor production. You can build twice the RWD vehicles compared to AWD with the same number of motors. Or maybe they have warranty concerns around the motors like with our early Model S motors. Half the things to replace.

These are wild theories, placed here to point out that there may be something less than obvious which is driving the RWD decision.

Front motor adds half shafts in addition to the motor. It may be that they can produce motors as fast as needed but the supplier for the half shafts needs a few more months to ramp up.

 

[eisbock]

He's building an attractive, cheap, autonomous, taxi. Mission accomplished.

But. It. Is. Not. Autonomous.

 

[dhanson865]

I'm thinking it's a supplier issue with the transmission. The motors themselves and their parts are similar to the S motors which are all built on site. Motor production shouldn't be a bottleneck.

The transmission is the same no matter if there is one or two motors.

 

[SageBrush]

If Tesla does some day use a HUD, hopefully it looks better than this one.

The HUD display seems to block the field of vision.

 

[ohmman]

We have discussed on this forum what the Model 3 and Model S differentiators might be. Many people thought the 3 would just be a smaller S. Some thought the S would be discontinued once the Model 3 was released. I think we're getting a little insight at this point into the fact that Tesla intends to sell both vehicles, and intends to make the 3 an entry level sedan and the S a premium level sedan.

Being surprised about the timing of the premium level (AWD/Performance) rollout seems reasonable, since we were given different guidance. But as I mentioned upthread, I can imagine a number of situations where that was Tesla's original intent, but they were forced to change the plan. I cannot understand being surprised that the 3 will be feature-poor compared to the S, though, because that's been an understanding all along. It's also well established with just about every other product line of vehicles, electronics, etc. You pay less, you get less.

 

[lunitiks]

Less. Is. More.

 

[SouthFLGuy]

It does look good. There are lots of concepts EVs out there that look good. I'd wait to what actually comes to see what its actual specs will be. To me, it looks like something between an S and an X. I expect it will be in the same price range as a minimal version of those two. We'll see though. The world needs more EVs. The 3 will have been out for more than a full year before the I-Pace hits the road. The new batteries will be in the Model S and X by then and also a lot of new technology as well. I expect the I-Pace will still be more pretty and comfortable over a Tesla in the interior. It is one of Tesla's weak areas if you don't like minimalist modern style.

Anything that pushes more and more car manufacturers towards electric is good for everyone (well except for oil companies!). I'm very excited that Jaguar, Mercedes and others have solid EV plans other than Tesla.

 

[kevin457]

Front motor adds half shafts in addition to the motor. It may be that they can produce motors as fast as needed but the supplier for the half shafts needs a few more months to ramp up.

I would guess difficulty of ramping up production for the motors is easier than battery packs, both way easier than final car assembly if you consider number of unique tasks they have to complete.

on previous model launches they launched the fully optioned models first to drive revenue and total profit earlier. with the model 3 the highest profit margin is from software unlocks - where margin is almost 100% cause they are doing the development whether you buy it in a 3 or not. The profit margin on dual motor or bigger battery options is probably 0% when they are making 5000 cars/week, and > 30% when they are at full production. A lot of reservation holders can't afford a fully optioned 3, so they are choosing their favorite of available options. Tesla is driving these choices to be higher margin software options.

 

[Jleafs]

Elon did allude to spacecraft-like controls and was all like wait until you see the real controls, certainly leaving the impression that this was not the final design regarding the steering wheel area. Granted, the speculation about a HUD in particular (based on some HUD/AR hires and general technology news on full windshield HUDs coming), went beyond what Musk said. But unless the spaceship comment was mostly hubris - which unfortunately Tesla does nowadays more and more - it is hard to see what else could qualify, other than a HUD or other large departure in the control and instrumentation area in the production version...

This really explains 95% of the reason there is such disappointment on the controls/dash - it was the over-promising. After all, "watered-down Model S" is pretty much the Model 3 in a nutshell right from day 1 of the Secret Master Plan.

The other 5% of the problem is a large tablet jutting out from centre + missing binnacle not only isn't what a spaceship "feels like" to most people, it's a firm step into weird-mobile territory. From a functional point of view, I feel it's a feature that most people will have to get used to, as opposed to something they really want. Some might try to argue the analogy of the first all-screen iPhones and how few of us ended up missing physical keyboards, but at least those had great aesthetics going for it from the beginning. I don't get that feeling when I look at that centre screen..

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I cannot understand being surprised that the 3 will be feature-poor compared to the S, though, because that's been an understanding all along. It's also well established with just about every other product line of vehicles, electronics, etc. You pay less, you get less.

Because Model S is already so feature poor nobody thought things could get any worse? Expecting evolution from Model 3, that of course would also trickle to Model S/X, is pretty normal given the state of the company making the car. Tesla getting some things ready in time for Model 3 would have made perfect sense.

Let's not kid ourselves, beyond the unique sigature features (big battery, big screen, autonomous with updates), Tesla's feature-sets aren't normal for their current class (S/X), nor are they normal even for the upcoming class of the 3 if the current appearances are at all accurate. They are far below of what normally is expected. Have you seen the toys an Audi A4 gets these days? Of course you pay for the toys, but they are available.

Surely people still buy Teslas for those unique signature features, but it is not a stretch to have believed Tesla would have improved e.g. the interiors through the Model X and Model 3 design processes. Alas, it seems not yet.