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voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
More like 25% of the reservations will turn into actual orders. I'm sure many people will reconsider when it gets closer to order time and they have to spec the car out and write the "big" check or arrange financing.
I believe that out of the Model S reservations something like 90% bailed.
Possible, but by production time they will easily have 300-500k reservations even counting attrition. There will be a new burst near production.
deonb
Active Member
No. Just no. At least 50% of the pre-reservations ordered cars.
Remember, we had consecutive VIN numbers back then, complete with spreadsheets and everything.
I think at some point he may decide to just do higher spec'd cars across the board and ship them across the continent... then work downwards from there. i think thats' better than going west/midwest/east. I say this knowing i'm going to highly option my car hahah
doublejj
Member
timk225
Active Member
Wonder where I stand, being on the other side of the planet and in a right-hand-drive country?
Does the car HAVE to be RHD to be driven in your country? In the USA, I don't believe there any special requirements, permissions, or licenses needed to put a RHD car on the road.
Anton Whalman in Seeking Lies actual stated in one of his comments that, all these hundreds of thousands of reservations will actually abandon Tesla and move to buy a Bolt once they get their hands on a test drive..... because Bolt is smaller and so easier to park.
In it's hayday that Freemont plant was producing 500k Toyotas a year...
So the challenge the Tesla engineers now have is to design a production process that is at least as efficient as Toyota did with ICE vehicles.
That will be the biggest driver on production costs and time. It will also be the number one cause for changes to the car from today to production.
Thanks for thinking of us
. Right hand drive countries were already going to way behind. I'm hoping that the RHD plans were linked to timing of production line modifications or planning or something and not pushed to after all the initial LHD reservers get their cars. That would mean the first 200K cars off the line would be for LHD Countries before we even get a look in. I was thinking it would be March April 2018 before we got one "down under". Two years I can handle but longer will be torture.For the Tesla stock shorters though it still won't make me cancel! The car is sold to me, And we don't get any kind of incentives here and we pay for shippnig across the ocean and sales tax and stamp duty etc etc etc. Base here will be $60K. Whatever. I bought a Model 3 and I' ecstatic.
doublejj
Member
Tina C
Member
I agree - I think they will roll it out in batches. Maybe even in batches of 5,000 highly optioned each region, then move back to the first region and repeat until they work their way down the options & orders. I would imagine if an employee wanted priority they would have already had to place their reservation, especially since they could do it before the 31st. It would make sense to work through all the orders through day 1 or 2 and then after those are filled start on the people who reserved day 3 or later, etc depending on reservation quantities. Current owners who reserved in the first day or two would get priority in that batch. I highly doubt a person, or previous owner, could walk into a store on the West coast days or months later and jump the line just because they are on the West coast or own a Tesla. At some time they would need to pause & fill RHD orders & then go back to LHD orders otherwise the RHD orders would never get filled. With the revealed dash design, I don't think it will take too much retooling to switch between RHD & LHD production.
Tina C
Member
No because the US tax credit only applies to the first 200,000 cars they sold in the US. They have sold plenty overseas and will continue to without any affect to the US tax credit.
Of course that math only works if it's costing them $20K more to build a car than they sell it for. They are losing money, but they actually sell Model S and Model Xs for around 20K more than they cost to produce. So they make $20K a car. Because they have a lot invested in R&D, they are expanding the supercharger network, building the Gigafactory, as well as various overhead costs, when all those things are totaled up, they lose money and if you divide it by the number of cars sold, it comes to $20K a car. Or it did near the end of last year when Model X production was tiny and before the year end building blitz.
The numbers for the first quarter will tell a different tale. They cut back on supercharger installations, I think they may have slowed down the Gigafactory build a little, and Model X production has ramped up. If they have a loss this quarter, I expect it to be significantly smaller than last year, and they may manage to eek out a small profit.
When the Model 3 hits its production stride, the company will probably be able to post consistent profits, or at least break even. I expect they will be rolling all their profits back into the company for some time to come. The Model Y comes after the Model 3, then the next gen Roadster, superchargers and service centers will need to be added as well as building more factories. The base income to support these things will continue to expand though. Something the chicken little investors don't seem to get.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Exactly, there are a lot of unwarranted and pessimistic assumptions being made on this thread.
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