powertoold
Active Member
Cool, proves my point that Mobileye will fail. What's the point of Zeeker using Mobileye at this point if Huawei, their next door neighbor, is already superior? Thanks.
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Elon tweets "pure vision" will solve phantom braking
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Cool, proves my point that Mobileye will fail. What's the point of Zeeker using Mobileye at this point if Huawei, their next door neighbor, is already superior? Thanks.
What did anything i said lead you to believe that Mobileye will fail or that Huawei is superior to mobileye?
Literally I said that Huawei said they are better than Tesla and are at 1,000 KM per safety disengagement in an environment orders of magnitude harder to drive in than the US. I wonder where they got that idea. Oh its from analyzing videos of FSD Beta in urban environment which is still easier than China and seeing that they can only go a-couple miles before needing to disengage for safety reasons.
For Tesla to be able to match or surpass Huawei's Advance Autopilot at release in November/December. If Huawei stopped development today and Tesla kept going. V9 and any further subsequent versions would have to be at-least two orders of magnitude better than what it is today. three orders when you take into considerations that California is easier to drive in than china.
Ofcourse we know that won't happen. Huawei's team of 2,000 developers will keep developing and might be at 1,000 miles (1609 KM) between safety disengagement at release.
Guess what? Mobileye's supervision will also be operating in that same harder environment. Their capabilities, performance, safety and comfort while using only cameras when they are both compared months from now will be a testament to how good Mobileye is.
You love talking about Tesla's "Vision only" approach, but the only company that has had a vision only approach since day one is Mobileye.
Elon is simply trying to co-op them and acting like he's doing something unique and special.
This video is from 2018
This is manifested by Zeekr 001 having just 11 8MP cameras and 1 forward radar. The BOM of supervision with the 2x EyeQ5 computer added to the sensors is under $1,000 according to mobileye.
This is reflected in the Zeekr 001 costing just $41k while the Huawei version of Arcfox Alpha S cost $66k-69k.
There are several other advantages Mobileye has over the industry and Huawei. For example they are the only one capable of creating/generating new HD maps from consumer cars which is then added to the global cloud map, others can only update/refresh their existing maps, but only Mobileye can create and update.
Huawei for example said they have to map each city first then the car can update/refresh the maps as environment changes.
While their system can generate a map after several passes for a city they don't yet support so the advanced autopilot can make use of it.
That map is only local to the car. The only shared map generated from consumer cars is of parking lots.
This is a huge advantage. Another being Mobileye's ability of completely 100% automated map creation and refresh.
Lastly Geely who is the second largest automaker will be using mobileye in majority of their models going forward. Sorry to disappoint you.
I'd like to suggest you guys get outside today & enjoy the weather. This is bordering on obsession.
powertoold
Active Member
Tesla isn't vaporware, whereas all of the other systems have yet to be deployed.
Tesla's hardware isn't vaporware. But their L3+ system (or even L2 city streets) is. Nobody puts their money down for hardware. You put it down for functionality.
Tesla has shown they can make and ship cars with cameras and computers. But we know Huawei and Mobileye can ship hardware too. We don't give them credit for that because writing autonomy software is totally different than making hardware. Tesla is in the same boat.
"But I can see city streets beta on youtube"- How many beta programs have videos but have never quite managed to make it to shipping? Tesla has been showing us self driving videos since 2016, yet somehow, they just never quite manage to actually make it out. It's always being "rearchitected". Isn't this the definition of vaporware? Lots of videos and hype, nothing you can actually go and buy and use? Always just a few months away?
Just because Tesla will take your money also doesn't make it not vaporware. No car they sell today is able to make a turn at an intersection by itself, a base fundamental requirement for any kind of useful self driving. Until I can actually have L3+ functionality (or even city streets), then those functions are vaporware. They are not for sale to the public.
Yes, Tesla has some autonomy. They have L2 highway. But we've had that since 2014 via Mobileye and other cars have that too. But it's not what anyone means when they discuss a self driving car, and it's not what Tesla has hyped up as coming soon.
Of course, all of this can change with one software update, as it can with any software program. Tesla can escape vaporware status at any instant. Until they do though, this is pretty classic vaporware (with the added "pay in advance" multiplier). Some companies exit vaporware with a great product and still dominate. Some never deliver and fade away. Nobody knows which one Tesla will be any more than Mobileye, Zoox, Cruise, Waymo, Huawei....
Tesla has shown they can make and ship cars with cameras and computers. But we know Huawei and Mobileye can ship hardware too. We don't give them credit for that because writing autonomy software is totally different than making hardware. Tesla is in the same boat.
"But I can see city streets beta on youtube"- How many beta programs have videos but have never quite managed to make it to shipping? Tesla has been showing us self driving videos since 2016, yet somehow, they just never quite manage to actually make it out. It's always being "rearchitected". Isn't this the definition of vaporware? Lots of videos and hype, nothing you can actually go and buy and use? Always just a few months away?
Just because Tesla will take your money also doesn't make it not vaporware. No car they sell today is able to make a turn at an intersection by itself, a base fundamental requirement for any kind of useful self driving. Until I can actually have L3+ functionality (or even city streets), then those functions are vaporware. They are not for sale to the public.
Yes, Tesla has some autonomy. They have L2 highway. But we've had that since 2014 via Mobileye and other cars have that too. But it's not what anyone means when they discuss a self driving car, and it's not what Tesla has hyped up as coming soon.
Of course, all of this can change with one software update, as it can with any software program. Tesla can escape vaporware status at any instant. Until they do though, this is pretty classic vaporware (with the added "pay in advance" multiplier). Some companies exit vaporware with a great product and still dominate. Some never deliver and fade away. Nobody knows which one Tesla will be any more than Mobileye, Zoox, Cruise, Waymo, Huawei....
powertoold
Active Member
We won't know how the other systems compare to Tesla's until normal lay people can "stress" test them (good luck, as a lot of media coming out of China is propaganda). All we have so far are marketing videos from these other unreleased systems. Obviously if we take the best fsd beta videos and make a highlight reel, it'd seem like Tesla has already "solved" fsd, lol.
FSD Beta has not been deployed to consumers yet. Which makes it vaporware. In fact Tesla FSD is the literally definition of vaporware.
I thought vaporware is what makes vape sticks work
powertoold
Active Member
Nope, fsd beta has been deployed to some consumers, unlike the BMW traffic light feature or any of these other Chinese systems.
71 hand picked people under NDA are not "customers". It doesn't matter that they paid for FSD- they do not represent a normal retail transaction. Also, Elon has specifically said he's revoked access to some of these customers. This means it was not sold under a normal purchase contract, as a company cannot revoke something they sold to you without a special agreement which none of us agreed to when we supposedly bought FSD.
As you said- it's been "deployed." Not sold. It is not a retail product, it is a highly controlled beta that could end at any time.
powertoold
Active Member
Yup, they're all Tesla customers, who bought cars with their own money. Some of them release videos that create "negative" impressions of the fsd beta, as they show multiple failures time and time again. Tesla doesn't restrict them from doing so.
We all agree Tesla vehicles are not vaporware.
The question is about the FSD option. Ask yourself: If Tesla never puts FSD on anything except these hand picked 71 cars, would you consider FSD to have been shipped as you expected, or would it be vaporware that came tantalizingly close, but didn't quite make it? Nobody considers a product shipped because 0.015% of people that prepaid for a product have it (assumes 20% FSD take rate).
The basis of vaporware is an expectation that something more is coming in the future, but it never quite comes. Just because the company took another step that looks closer to what you expected doesn't mean it happened.
We have no actual idea if any of these Testers paid for the FSD option themselves, what's in the NDA, or what other agreements exist that allow Tesla to revoke access at any time without refund. That's kind of the purpose of an NDA, to hide things you don't want the public or competitors to know. You only put an NDA out there to limit something, or else it was a complete waste. So we shouldn't be assuming anything in either direction.
BMW traffic light has been deployed to customers in Germany and select locales. FSD beta on the other hand has NOT been deployed. Sending the software to a few dozen people who are almost all Tesla fanatic youtubers and investors, then calling each of them and telling them to upload videos isn't deploying to customers. Its Elon doing PR and marketing. Smart Summon was beta tested for a long time in a private beta before actually being deployed to customers. The only difference in comparison was that this was only sent to fanboys and investors who were told to upload videos.
Every company has their internal employees testing and actual customers privately testing features. Does that mean they have deployed the feature to customers?
powertoold
Active Member
Prove it doesn't require any "coding" to enable it. I've yet to see any announcement / article / press release it's been deployed. All we have are bimmerpost members talking about how to "code" the software to enable it.
i-step 07/2020.25 - new features including Traffic Light Assistant
i-step 07/2020.25 - new features including Traffic Light Assistant - Page 19
g05.bimmerpost.com
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
From what I found last time in your discussion it has not been officially deployed in Germany either, at least as of 2 months ago (a German driver is still coding his car to enable to feature, just like people in the USA and UK has to):
Traffic light coding G20
Did you end up finding evidence of someone enabling the feature in Germany without having to "code" it?
powertoold
Active Member
Of course not, it's a feature ripe for publicity. Any company would seize the opportunity to release marketing materials for a traffic light feature. It's surprising bladerskb doesn't understand this, as he's entranced by marketing media.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
It's getting a bit off topic but dug a bit for BMW press materials.
This is the press release for their latest software update (released 2/22/2021) version 11/20 (the same version most people are hacking to enable the "TLA" traffic lights feature). No mention of Traffic lights. As a sanity check it does still mention features even if it is locked to limited regions for example: "Alexa is being made available for Germany, Austria, the UK1, Spain and Italy as part of this upgrade. Amazon Alexa integration will be extended to more countries in subsequent upgrades."
New Remote Software Upgrade available for over one million BMW vehicles worldwide.
Same for previous 7-20 update:
BMW Group rolls out biggest Remote Software Upgrade in company history.
The 03/2021 version doesn't have release notes yet, but from the other thread linked, people appear to still be required to "code" to enable TLA in that version also.
Given "any company would release marketing materials" - Can you find me the Tesla marketing materials for the released city streets software?
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powertoold
Active Member
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