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Elon & Twitter

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I had little to do with Twitter until the war in Ukraine broke out. After a few weeks of exploring conventional news, I found the highest quality news about the war was coming from Twitter. There is a lot of garbage about the war on Twitter too, but I sought out the quality sources and I've been following them since. I haven't used Twitter as much as my partner.
This is the way to use Twitter, follow the right sources, you get information not available elsewhere.

Time will tell if Elon can keep it financially viable, but his ambitions to turn Twitter into a payments system/bank are not modest. Should it work it, will make a lot more money than advertising. Yes, he is intending to compete with Banks, Paypal. YouTube, etc.

So far I have not seen any evidence of a political "move to the right" on Twitter, all of the valuable posters I follow still seem to be there.

I don't doubt that new "right leaning" posters are joining, but nothing that they post comes up in my feed.
 
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It’s happening!
Really hard to resist being political but there people on both sides who want this to happen (though one side will pretend that they don’t).
Dumpster fire about to get a lot bigger... going to turn into a barge soon.

I think the interesting thing is that if Trump's account is reinstated, will he actually come back? Trump has said multiple times he would not leave Truth Social, but I don't think Trump can resist the attention he'd get.

That said - if Elon still thinks that Twitter polls are at all accurate or represent the will of the people as he seems to suggest - well I've got a $44B social media bridge to sell him.
 
If you can't have an honest argument my dude, you'll have no argument at all.
You and several others are basically claiming that Twitter is going to die on the vine in the next couple of months.

You aren’t willing to back that up with anything aside from conjecture… bold claims require a little more than speculation and random sources to convince me.

🤷‍♂️

I’ll bookmark this page and we can talk in a couple months.
 
No, he didn't. He specifically said that his sale in the past week or so was to keep Twitter from going bankrupt as we move through a likely recession.
this is the transcript, reportedly. i think likely what you say but it isn't a 100% IMO

Musk: I think we need to spool up subscriptions. The reason I have extremely high urgency around subscriptions is that we are headed into, I think, quite a serious recession. And you can see that with basically every company doing layoffs. It’s not just Twitter. And in a recession, advertising is disproportionately affected. And then advertising where the advertiser cannot clearly trace how much they spent on an ad to what demand it generated, which is known as brand advertising, will be even more affected. This puts Twitter as we look ahead into a very dire situation from a revenue standpoint.
You may have read that I sold a bunch of Tesla stock. The reason I did that was to save Twitter. Not because I lack faith in Tesla. I think Tesla stock is going to be worth an immense amount in the future. I sold the stock for Twitter. To keep Twitter alive. And the reason that we are going hardcore with subscribers is to keep Twitter alive. There’s going to be probably a year or two of serious recession that, again, will disproportionately affect us. And we’re going to get through that and not be dead. That’s the reason for the priority there.

Related​

I’ve been through the recession of 2000 and 2001 and 2008–9, and I’m somewhat paranoid about dying in recessions. I have recession PTSD from keeping X and PayPal alive through the 2000 recession, keeping Tesla alive in the 2009 recession. It’s worth remembering that, in 2009, General Motors and Chrysler both went bankrupt. Tesla did not, despite being a startup electric vehicle company. It was excruciatingly difficult to keep us alive in 2009. And the reason we were able to keep alive is partly by just being paranoid. It’s like Andy Gross’ famous statement: “Only the paranoid survive.” Well then, we are going to be paranoid, and we’re going to survive.

Moderator: I have another question from remote folks: What is our runway?
Musk: It’s difficult to say what our runway, our cash runway, is because I don’t know what the revenue shortfall will be next year. But I think it is possible that we could see a net negative cash flow of several billion dollars. It’s impossible to predict the actual severity of a recession or the length of it. But we do not want to have a situation where we’re betting on the recession being shallow and short if, in fact, it ends up being a deep recession that is long. We need to make sure we can survive a deep recession that is long.
 
You and several others are basically claiming that Twitter is going to die on the vine in the next couple of months.

You aren’t willing to back that up with anything aside from conjecture… bold claims require a little more than speculation and random sources to convince me.

🤷‍♂️

I’ll bookmark this page and we can talk in a couple months.
My prediction is that it will have a few short outages but nothing unrecoverable. However there will be no new features for a long time. Your prediction?

Another high level employee gone.
 
I think that you've been listening to Twitter's competitors in the news media/communication sphere. They all are slinging FUD in the hope that Twitter will fail. But the funny thing is, when I visit Twitter, it looks the same to me as it did before Elon bought it.

Twitter looks the same to me too. But we are the product and not the consumer.
 
You and several others are basically claiming that Twitter is going to die on the vine in the next couple of months.

You aren’t willing to back that up with anything aside from conjecture… bold claims require a little more than speculation and random sources to convince me.

🤷‍♂️

I’ll bookmark this page and we can talk in a couple months.
The counter argument to this is people who claim that Elon is going to create a miraculous transformation of Tesla based on little more than speculation.

On balance, based on what I've seen so far there is precious little to indicate he will be successful. Perhaps he will succeed but I'm not willing to bet on it.
 
You and several others are basically claiming that Twitter is going to die on the vine in the next couple of months.

I have literally not said anything remotely like that. In fact I said several things that are the opposite of that.

I'll suggest again that if you're unable to argue honestly, which I've pointed out specific examples of your unwillingness to do several times now, just don't argue at all.
 

This is spot on. Elon is known to "cull" at his companies. He has done it at SpaceX and Tesla.

This first round of culling at Twitter is going to cut to the bone, and it's going to just look absolutely hideous to us outsiders. People will ask "why is he firing everyone that know how things run, etc. etc.". My friend formerly at Tesla said it's simple: "if you don't buy into Elon's vision of what he wants to accomplish, you are a hinderance and not a help. He would rather cut you early and be done with it and not bother dealing with you in the future than risking future drama with you."

Like it or not, agree with it or not, that's Elon's Modus Operandi. You must see the vision as he sees it, AND you must be *sugar* hot at your job. If you aren't, you are likely gone.


Someone mentioned something interesting on Youtube today about this - Tesla got ~500,000 job applications in the past year, but only hired 2-3% of those. There are a LOT of people that want to work at an Elon company. Enough so that he will have zero problems filling Twitter positions with quality talent. The recession and layoffs at other silicon valley firms will only help him recruit talent. SV is not a cheap place to live. And if you just got laid off from META and have a mortgage, kids, etc. you may take a lower-paying job at Twitter to pay the bills, and keep your mouth shut knowing you are under Elon's umbrella, than be jobless.

Talent that he believes will NOT undermine him going forward is what he wants. And again, that's the key - if Elon even gets a hint that you are not on "Team Elon", he doesn't want you. You may know everything about Twitter's inner workings, but you are still useless to him.


EDIT - and all these people that get canned, and then go tweet and post about it and how much they hate Elon and how much he's destroying Twitter . . . . well they just confirm for Elon that he made the right choice to can them.
 
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My prediction is that it will have a few short outages but nothing unrecoverable. However there will be no new features for a long time. Your prediction?

Another high level employee gone.
More or less the same. That in 3 months Twitter is fine and likely rolling out a few new features. Likely some of their new features are a failure and some hit.

Twitter has anchor users. It’s really hard to get people to quit a platform permanently when hundreds or thousands of their followers are there.
 
this is the transcript, reportedly. i think likely what you say but it isn't a 100% IMO

Musk: I think we need to spool up subscriptions. The reason I have extremely high urgency around subscriptions is that we are headed into, I think, quite a serious recession. And you can see that with basically every company doing layoffs. It’s not just Twitter. And in a recession, advertising is disproportionately affected. And then advertising where the advertiser cannot clearly trace how much they spent on an ad to what demand it generated, which is known as brand advertising, will be even more affected.
I'm curious to know why he doesn't think that subscription revenue wouldn't also drop significantly as well, during a recession.

I know that if I were laid off or wanted to save money, a basically useless Twitter sub would be at the top of my list, along with any other entertainment expenses.

I mean yeah, subs might provide some amount of a baseline - but is the revenue potential there significant compared to ad revenue?
 
No, he didn't. He specifically said that his sale in the past week or so was to keep Twitter from going bankrupt as we move through a likely recession.
Citation please!

The original (Nov. 10) NYT article said:

At the meeting on Thursday, Mr. Musk warned employees that Twitter did not have the necessary cash to survive, [...]

Mr. Musk added that he had recently sold Tesla stock to “save” Twitter. He has sold nearly $4 billion in Tesla shares recently, according to regulatory filings this week.
Do you really think this money went to something other than paying off debt? You seem to be implying that Musk sold TSLA at a low price in order to sock the money away in a bank account somewhere.

Elon had previously said he was done with selling TSLA to pay for Twitter. Then after the purchase, Twitter's revenue was less than he expected so Elon changed his mind and sold more TSLA to "save" Twitter. Presumably to make up for the revenue shortfall.

Elon has been saying the fourth quarter should be spectacular for Tesla. The first deliveries of the Semi, ramping up Austin and Berlin, and the upcoming tax rebates should all help boost TSLA in the near future. Why would Elon sell so much TSLA so disadvantageously other than to pay off high interest debts/loans?

I previously asked this question here and AFAIK no alternatives were suggested.
 
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