EU Market Situation and Outlook

[smac]

What's a ULEV?

As Dirkh says Ultra Low Emission Vehicle.

In EU this means any vehicle producing < 75g CO2 per km under the NEDC tests. The only practical way to achieve this is with a BEV or PHEV (I'm excluding H2 cars as we don't have any available yet).

It is a bit of a joke with the likes of the Outlander and i8 on the list, which in many cases never going near an electrical point, such are the tax advantages.

This is the UK GoUltraLow website produced with some government backing:
Car Menu - Go Ultra Low

Notice any obvious omissions? (Hint strange as Elon was supposedly the UK's EV Tsar!)

 

[Lessmog]

Ah. Thanks for the info.

 

[Gerasimental]

As Dirkh says Ultra Low Emission Vehicle.

In EU this means any vehicle producing < 75g CO2 per km under the NEDC tests. The only practical way to achieve this is with a BEV or PHEV (I'm excluding H2 cars as we don't have any available yet).

It is a bit of a joke with the likes of the Outlander and i8 on the list, which in many cases never going near an electrical point, such are the tax advantages.

This is the UK GoUltraLow website produced with some government backing:
Car Menu - Go Ultra Low

Notice any obvious omissions? (Hint strange as Elon was supposedly the UK's EV Tsar!)

The world is not a huge anti-Tesla conspiracy. Manufacturers have to join the programme and Tesla hasn't, which is why they are not represented on the site.
I like the Go Ultra Low initiative, and prefer to have people buying Outlander PHEVs over BMW x3s.
Absurd that they claim all these cars have the same real world as NEDC mileage though.

 

[hobbes]

Just found news on minister Gabriel´s initiative for a 5000 EUR incentive in Germany: Looks like a meeting to discuss this was cancelled, seems like he is alone with that idea while other ministers think the car industry makes enough money to offer competitive prices for EVs themselves:

Google Translate

 

[hobbes]

We are moving the wiki for Europe to another place with a title that doesn´t contain a year, so we can use it indefinitely:
Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

And, btw, first MX in Europe - license plate is for Ingolstadt where Audi is...
Random Model X sightings - Page 141

 

[hobbes]

In this video from France at 13:25 Elon says on superchargers

And we will be adding the European standard plug as well.

Now that´s news!

 

[Quant]

In this video from France at 13:25 Elon says on superchargers



Now that´s news!

Yeah...and on the same video Elon says the first pictures we will see of the Model 3 will be towards the end of March.

So, Model 3 at Geneva show in 2016 simply isn't happening ! And, I'm glad !

 

[Benz]

In this video from France at 13:25 Elon says on superchargers

"And we will be adding the European standard plug as well."

Now that´s news!

At 14:20 in the video:

Elon Musk: "But to do large scale manufacturing, like on the order of a million units a year type of factory ...."

That's going to be a very large factory (one in China and one in Europe)!!!

 

[Quant]

In this video from France at 13:25 Elon says on superchargers



Now that´s news!

So, I just finished watching this video for a second time on YouTube.

1. Boy, was that one super chaotic French event!!!!!

Everything from the local Tesla people who organized the event, to the microphones that were used, to the super talkative audience , the tone of the people ( yeah, even for France it was unusually poor ).....I mean everything.....it seemed very poorly done.

2. One additional important takeaway for me was that Elon maybe sees a path for a Model S range going maybe upto ONLY 500-550 km ( 312-343 miles, so midpoint about 325 miles) AS A MAX, in the near future ( say 2-3 years or by 2018/2919).

That's not as big a leap as I was hoping for by 2019, but hearing Elon explain the trade-offs and charging efficiency as one tries to charge faster, I can understand the technological challenges and weight issue constraints there.

3. Also, Elon does not see Superchargers being able to charge any faster than 15 minutes, anytime in the near future horizon. Again, if that's by 2019, that's only a little better, not a huge improvement.

4. As a result of 2 and 3 above, I would think that Tesla will really need to expand the supercharger network even faster, to fill in current holes, increase the supercharger network density in high population areas/highly traversed areas, and also increase the number of supercharger outlets per location, so as to avoid holiday and seasonal travel rush queues, in the US and in Europe.

With the rollout and production of Model 3 in volume, in 2018 and 2019, I expect thiswill be done and given high priority because of the above.

5. So, now I hope and expect that Tesla will get faster to scaling up the Gigafactory with scale economies and battery chemistry/electronics to achieve the $100 kwh costs, that JB Straubel referred to earlier this year. He actually said that Teslawould be very disappointed if they could not get to at least $100 kWh cost by the end of 2020.

6. Re Model 3 launch event in March, it is interesting, but not unsurprising, that Elon said that not all of the features of the Model 3 will be announced in March, as they will hold off on announcing seme features closer to actual production in late 2017. That's kinda similar to Model X, with some of the things like BioHazard button etc. Also, given competition is ramping up in the lower price band, I think Tesla will be careful not to tip their hand fully, too soon.

 

[RobStark]

6. Re Model 3 launch event in March, it is interesting, but not unsurprising, that Elon said that not all of the features of the Model 3 will be announced in March, as they will hold off on announcing seme features closer to actual production in late 2017. That's kinda similar to Model X, with some of the things like BioHazard button etc. Also, given competition is ramping up in the lower price band, I think Tesla will be careful not to tip their hand fully, too soon.

In the vid Musk says we will be seeing pictures of the Model 3.

But that we will not see all of Model 3 until much closer to production.

I was expecting a full prototype.

 

[Quant]

In the vid Musk says we will be seeing pictures of the Model 3.

But that we will not see all of Model 3 until much closer to production.

I was expecting a full prototype.

I think Musk and team will give enough info, pictures and video to demonstrate that the Model 3 is better on looks, styling , performance, range etc at a starting price sufficient to make it compelling enough vs. any othet EV , so that the end result is a swarm of reservations that builds and builds by late 2017, to blow out capacity for all of 2018 and 2019. Probably $2,000 deposit. And, a killer leasing deal. I wouldn't worry about that!

 

[Gerardf]

Elon did not say we will ONLY see pictures.

Question in the video (@ 12.25) was : "When will we see pictures of the Model 3 ?" ... and the answer was "The first pictures of Model 3.. That will be end of March".

Elon then added: "we are not going to show everything of model 3 until we are much closer to production".

Next to that, the Q3-ER stated:

As of September 30, 2015, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype
- Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles; and
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype

They must have been pretty close to these milestones late September. (the 100k aggregate production was actually reached in December).

I do expect we will see at least an Alpha prototype at the unveil.

 

[Benz]

5. So, now I hope and expect that Tesla will get faster to scaling up the Gigafactory with scale economies and battery chemistry/electronics to achieve the $100 kwh costs, that JB Straubel referred to earlier this year. He actually said that Teslawould be very disappointed if they could not get to at least $100 kWh cost by the end of 2020.

You heard JB Straubel say that in a recent video?

Could you please post a linkt to that video here in this thread?

Thanks

 

[Quant]

You heard JB Straubel say that in a recent video?

Could you please post a linkt to that video here in this thread?

Thanks

Just go to Youtube and search for JB Starubel and listen to his presentation at Univ of Nevada 10/11/15. There's only 1. It's a long presentation and I'm not gonna find exactly at what time in the video he says it. I've viewed it twice. The $100 per kWh by 2020 ( he says end of the decade ) is in that. Actually, that Tesla would be very disappointed if they did not at least achieve that by 2020.

I also suggest reading up on JB Straubel, his background and experience with batteries. He is actually the guy in charge of batteries and Gigafactory at Tesla and the one who has been working with the utilities on the software for optimization of the battery packs for utility scale deployments. JB Is a serious electric battery expert/ innovator.

 

[SebastianR]

Wow, Denmark numbers are out: The Model S is doing actually quite well. This is the breakdown of sales in January:

MERCEDES-BENZ	E-KLASSE	66
AUDI	A6	58
TESLA	MODEL S	31
VOLVO	V70	26
BMW	5'ER	22
VOLVO	S80	4
AUDI	A7	2

This means that - despite the discontinuation of the sales incentive at the end of December the Model S is still the 3rd best selling car in the E-Segment of Denmark. I must admit I'm baffled and amazed.

Source: De Danske Bilimportører - Presse - Pressemeddelelser vedr. bilsalget

Edit: Thinking about this a bit more (well, a minute or so), I'm not sure how much we can read into these numbers - they seem overall quite depressed from December. We will see what happens going forward.

 

[Benz]

Just go to Youtube and search for JB Starubel and listen to his presentation at Univ of Nevada 10/11/15. There's only 1. It's a long presentation and I'm not gonna find exactly at what time in the video he says it. I've viewed it twice. The $100 per kWh by 2020 ( he says end of the decade ) is in that. Actually, that Tesla would be very disappointed if they did not at least achieve that by 2020.

I also suggest reading up on JB Straubel, his background and experience with batteries. He is actually the guy in charge of batteries and Gigafactory at Tesla and the one who has been working with the utilities on the software for optimization of the battery packs for utility scale deployments. JB Is a serious electric battery expert/ innovator.

You mentioned: "that JB Straubel referred to earlier this year".

And I thought you meant a video of JB Straubel of January 2016.

Thanks anyway

 

[Haddock]

Still seeing deliveries at the 2015 prices in Denmark

The numbers are very depressed relative to December. This is to be expected, since the tax was raised. However if you ordered your car before the new law was passed in October 2015, the manufacturer has until July 2016 to deliver at the old price. So some of the January Teslas are surely at the old price.

Also, the EU said the original law was unfairly targeting Tesla, and so the actual tax rise is not as high as expected. This news arrived very late though, so it won't have affected December and January sales much.

 

[Troy]

Hi everybody. We have recently moved to a new wiki HERE. You can update your bookmarks.

Hobbes and I made a few changes to prepare for Model X deliveries.
1. In the input form there is now a box to enter Model X numbers too. The link to the input form is in the wiki.
2. In the wiki there will be separate tables and graphs for Model S, Model X and both.
3. The addition of MX increases the workload for data collection for volunteers who submit the data and editors who check and approve the numbers. To simplify things, we have stopped collecting monthly data for low volume countries. These are the countries shown in the graph below starting with Luxembourg. Their combined total is 0.7% of registrations in Europe. We will still collect data for these countries, but it will be yearly data instead monthly.
4. In the wiki most of the graphs are now embedded as a Google spreadsheet that has tabbed browsing. The image below shows how you can switch between those tabs. Without this solution we would simply have too many Model S and X graphs to show on the same page. One advantage is, this enables mouse hover feedback which is useful when viewing map graphs.

MX data will be added once deliveries start in following months. January data for Model S has already started coming in. We are ready for a great year.

Cheers
Troy

 

[hobbes]

The plans for a German EV incentive seem not to be dead after all: Chancellor Merkel is meeting car industry officials to discuss this matter this week:

Google Translate

Seems like the finance minister does not want to pay and Merkel is trying to find a compromise where the car industry takes over a part of the cost.

 

[schonelucht]

A few more numbers are available for January : (numbers between parentheses are Jan' 15/Oct '15)

the Netherlands : 84 (106/145)
Belgium : 47 (45/55)
France : 37 (26/56)
Germany : 39 : (57/121)

Generally as expected very few deliveries due to Tesla running down the pipeline at the end of last year to meet guidance. Unless a surprise is still in store for the UK or Switzerland, Tesla will have delivered between 400 and 500 cars in Europe during January.