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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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Just as an update though the numbers are peanuts in comparison. Here's the last few months data for Estonia:

Aug: 4
Sep: 4
Oct: 1
Nov: 1
Dec: 6
Jan: 5

Total on 31.01.15 is 36 cars. It's not much, but for a country that has no Tesla presence it's not too shabby ;) There are also a couple of P85Ds coming end of Feb that I know of for sure, but they will not get registered before March so don't know how many will arrive in February.
 
Just as an update though the numbers are peanuts in comparison. Here's the last few months data for Estonia:

Aug: 4
Sep: 4
Oct: 1
Nov: 1
Dec: 6
Jan: 5

Total on 31.01.15 is 36 cars. It's not much, but for a country that has no Tesla presence it's not too shabby ;) There are also a couple of P85Ds coming end of Feb that I know of for sure, but they will not get registered before March so don't know how many will arrive in February.

Not bad at all, it certainly looks like 32no underestimated deliveries to smaller EU countries in his 2014 prediction in the Q4 ER thread, where he guessed 20 for Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia, and Spain combined in December. If Estonia was 6, it's hard to believe the total won't be closer to 100 than to 20.
 
Not bad at all, it certainly looks like 32no underestimated deliveries to smaller EU countries in his 2014 prediction in the Q4 ER thread, where he guessed 20 for Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia, and Spain combined in December. If Estonia was 6, it's hard to believe the total won't be closer to 100 than to 20.

I'm not so sure. Iceland and Poland had no shipments at all, Ireland and Spain had 1 each. We are still missing a few markets, but even if it is more than 20, I think that the net effect on the numbers would be to revise down because I think I might have overestimated Hong Kong/Japan/Australia by a couple hundred, and I am still shaky on the UK numbers.

At this point, I don't think we will be getting too much more data before the report. Here is the European chart as it stands (I am using mostapasta's numbers for Jan-Nov):

Europe.png
 
I'm not so sure. Iceland and Poland had no shipments at all, Ireland and Spain had 1 each. We are still missing a few markets, but even if it is more than 20, I think that the net effect on the numbers would be to revise down because I think I might have overestimated Hong Kong/Japan/Australia by a couple hundred, and I am still shaky on the UK numbers.

At this point, I don't think we will be getting too much more data before the report. Here is the European chart as it stands (I am using mostapasta's numbers for Jan-Nov):

Oh, maybe I should have checked those countries' numbers first. You're probably right then, but I'm really disappointed with the low numbers in some of these places. Thinking about it now though, I just see huge growth potential. To think that there are fairly large markets out there (Spain, Italy, Poland etc) that currently contribute almost no sales/deliveries, and that can be tapped almost at will with very little additional infrastructure or business expansion effort.
 
Oh, maybe I should have checked those countries' numbers first. You're probably right then, but I'm really disappointed with the low numbers in some of these places. Thinking about it now though, I just see huge growth potential. To think that there are fairly large markets out there (Spain, Italy, Poland etc) that currently contribute almost no sales/deliveries, and that can be tapped almost at will with very little additional infrastructure or business expansion effort.

2015 will bring supercharger coverage to Spain, Italy and Poland (partially) and may boost sales. Three huge problems remain to fully open these markets : 1) Tesla cars are getting even more expensive 2) destination charging is nearly non-existent 3) there is no political (and real) cash for the respective governments to offer substantial incentives. Personally I think Ireland, the UK and Finland have bigger growth potential within the EU.
 
Oh, maybe I should have checked those countries' numbers first. You're probably right then, but I'm really disappointed with the low numbers in some of these places. Thinking about it now though, I just see huge growth potential. To think that there are fairly large markets out there (Spain, Italy, Poland etc) that currently contribute almost no sales/deliveries, and that can be tapped almost at will with very little additional infrastructure or business expansion effort.

Yeah, I think it is important to note that the current Tesla presence in Italy is just one service center in the north (Milan) and a few superchargers in the north as well. They have a store for Rome listed as "coming soon" but it is likely a lack of presence that is why the numbers remain so low.

Spain and Portugal currently have 0 Tesla presence. No stores, service, or chargers.

I would think that the other countries in the list that have decent populations but low numbers would be largely attributable to similar situations.

Just for kicks I threw together all the data for each country into a spreadsheet:

Capture.PNG

total.PNG


The "effectiveness" is just adding all of Tesla's presence up for the country and dividing by the sales where each store/service/charger counts as a presence factor of one.

You could argue for a more weighted scale where Stores weigh say 3, Service weighs 2, and Charging has a 1 (maybe even .5) weight factor. which might give a more accurate effectiveness of Tesla "marketing" for each country. It is also quite obvious from this that government incentives and all around EV awareness plays a role in the effectiveness as well, but that is even harder to try to quantify. But the key point here is pointing out that any country that they have a sale in which they have no presence is amazing, and on top of that, countries like Finland, Luxembourg or Estonia having as many sales as they do with no presence would be key markets for Tesla to raise awareness and cater to, since the cars are already getting decent acceptance there without any direct influence.

Edit: Added a total row

PS: It might be interesting to take the US estimates and extrapolate a similar charting to see how US sales are stacking up both individually with all the other countries and taking Europe on the whole.
 
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I don't see any sales numbers for Bulgaria, and I know for sure there are at least 10 Model S's being driven in Bulgaria as we speak. There's a guy from Bulgaria here on the forums, his name is Martin - he's running ecars.bg, a blog about electric cars. I will PM him to report the numbers. He had a blog post (in Bulgarian only) a few months ago about a small town called Dobrich, where there are about 12 orders of Model S (sort of like local rivalry between the rich folks in the town).
 
I don't see any sales numbers for Bulgaria, and I know for sure there are at least 10 Model S's being driven in Bulgaria as we speak. There's a guy from Bulgaria here on the forums, his name is Martin - he's running ecars.bg, a blog about electric cars. I will PM him to report the numbers. He had a blog post (in Bulgarian only) a few months ago about a small town called Dobrich, where there are about 12 orders of Model S (sort of like local rivalry between the rich folks in the town).

Hi guys, yeah thanks for asking and actually I did the above quoted blog post in English as well.

I don't have the exact numbers, but right now we should be approaching 15 Model S in Bulgaria not counting these 12 from the blog. So I guess mid 2015 we'll have like 25.

There's no access to police records to see registrations (think they are paid actually), so as of now it's more of a word of mouth way of collecting information. I know couple of the first owners personally and helped a guy in his order process. He later sparked those Dobrich orders... :)

He also told me more people are holding their orders for the lack of SCs, but this may change as 2015 SC EU map shows some dots on Bulgaria's territory. Was assured recently by SC EU Team SCs are coming to Bulgaria.